THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: The free agency doors have now busted open completely and teams are free to talk dollars and cents with all free agents. Matt Holliday’s agent, Scott Boras, has talked about seeking a Mark Teixeira-type deal (8 years, $180 million) for his client. At the end of the day, regardless of where he ends up, what kind of a contract do you see Holliday getting in terms of years and dollars?

DERRICK GOOLD
It’s no surprise that Boras would set a high bar for the opening bid on his biggest client this season. It’s just doubtful that the market will reach that level, especially when Mark Teixeira played a different (read: less populated) position and found himself in a cash-o-war between baseball’s biggest (spending) rivals, the Yankees and Red Sox. Boras should hope such a situation develops for Holliday. In the meantime, the Alfonso Soriano deal looks like a more likely indicator. Soriano got eight years; Holliday seems tailored for six (with maybe an option and possibly a walk-away in the middle, ala Alex Rodriguez). Soriano’s salary averages $17 million over the life of the contract. Seems realistic to target Holliday, a much better overall hitter than Soriano, for $18 million or slightly more. That fits Holliday for a deal of about six years, $105 million to $120 million. But truly the offer will be whatever the market commands, and right now the Cardinals appear to be the team most interested and most willing to meet the price.

BERNIE MIKLASZ
Unless there’s a surprise, and there is always that possibility, Boras won’t be able to exploit a depressed market for the kind of fantasy deal he envisions. Instead of Teixeira money, he may be more in line for Alfonso Soriano money. And even that’s questionable, considering this is a weak free-agent class, with Holliday being the best of the lot. That said, it only takes one wacko owner or GM to be seduced by Boras.

JEFF GORDON
I believe Boras really wants to top Alfonso Soriano and get his guy about $140 million over eight years. At the moment, the market for that sort of deal doesn’t appear to be there. The Angels don’t like dealing with Boras, so that team appears headed in a different direction. Boras can only hope that Jason Bay gets a big offer from, say, Seattle — thus forcing Boston to buck up for Holliday. I’ll take a wild guess and say that Holliday gets six years and $105 million from somebody.

KEVIN WHEELER (Host of “Sports Open Line” on KMOX)
Six years, $110 million with a couple of mutual options tagged on at the end and big buyouts attached to each. Those options would make the total potential payout roughly $150 million over 8 years. That’s just a hair over $18 million per season which would make Holliday the second-highest paid outfielder in MLB behind Manny Ramirez and just ahead of Torii Hunter, Ichiro Suzuki and Vernon Wells. He’s certainly a better player than Wells and can impact a game like Hunter and Suzuki, albeit in a different way. If the Yankees, Red Sox and Mets are all legitimately involved (not just “interested”) in talks, that number could certainly be a bit higher. But I don’t think he gets quite to the Teixeira level no matter who signs him.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: Carp or Waino? If you were to choose one of the Cardinal hurlers to win tomorrow’s NL Cy Young award, who would you choose?

JOE STRAUSS
I’ve sided with Wainwright since early August. The fact that he remained available to the club the entire season and produced second-half numbers almost identical to Carpenter’s tips a close race in his favor. Had a curious managerial decision and a bullpen meltdown not sabatoged Wainwright’s 20th win, we wouldn’t even be having this debate.

KEVIN WHEELER (Host of “Sports Open Line” on KMOX)
I’d cast my vote for Carpenter because he was simply the better pitcher. Wainwright pitched in six more games than Carpenter and notched two more wins. Other than that, Carpenter was easily the better pitcher. Carpenter posted the lower ERA (2.24 to 2.63), the lower WHIP (1.00 to 1.21), his strikeout-to-walk ratio was 40% better (3.8 to 2.7), opponents hit for a lower average against him (.226 to .244) and Carpenter’s opponents’ OPS was almost 100 points better than Wainwright’s (.581 to .679).

In other words Carpenter was tougher to get a hit against, tougher to get on-base against and he was tougher to score against. To me, that translates to “better pitcher” regardless of the language you’re speaking. Wainwright wins the “quantity” argument and Carpenter wins the “quality” argument. With Carpenter making 28 starts this year, hardly an insignificant number of games, I’ll gladly take quality over quantity.

Wait, there’s one more thing. The manager and pitching coach treated Carpenter like the “ace” of the staff by setting up the rotation late in the season so Carpenter would start Game 1 of the NLDS. Case closed in my book.

JEFF GORDON
As great as Carpenter was for much of the year, I see Wainwright as the wire-to-wire force for this rotation. Chris may be the better pitcher, but Adam was more accomplished this year. I can’t get past the win total. Also, he piled up high pitch counts to work deep into games and he ranked among the league’s strikeout leaders. This was Wainwright’s year and he should be rewarded.

RICK HUMMEL
Wainwright, because he led in two of the four major categories for pitchers — wins (19) and innings pitched (233). Carpenter led in one (ERA, 2.24). Tim Lincecum led in only one (strikeouts).

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: Matt Holliday’s agent Scott Boras was quoted in a Post-Dispatch story Wednesday talking about the Cardinals, saying, “If you’re drawing 3.3 million fans and you’re averaging $50 a fan coming in, I just don’t know that mid-market term.” Is Boras correct in his implication that due to the revenue generated by high attendance numbers year after year that the Cardinals should not be considered a mid-market club? Do you feel the team uses “mid-market” status as an excuse to keep the payroll lower than it is actually capable of paying?

BERNIE MIKLASZ
Scott Boras has a simple job: to pimp for his client and get the most money possible. And he’s criticizing ownership in St. Louis to put pressure on the Cardinals to pony up for his guy. It’s a negotiating tactic. Nothing more, nothing less. Boras is hoping that Bill DeWitt freaks out and offers a blank check to Holliday. It won’t happen. DeWitt is many things, but the last time I looked, he seemed to be rather smart, and he’s also sane. That isn’t what Boras wants. The agent’s success is based on finding the one or two completely crazy owners out there who will rush in, lose their heads and anxiously capitulate to his demands. That’s why Boras is so terrific at his job. He usually gets the kooks to overreact.

DERRICK GOOLD
Mid-market has become a shield as much as a designation for many baseball teams. Some can cower behind the protection of that “mid-market” designation and pocket additional profit while weeping over an inability to keep or sign top-flight players. St. Louis certainly cuts the image of a mid-market city. Its media size is mid-range. Its population is mid-size. Its Fortune 500 footprint falls behind Chicago and Houston in the NL Central Division. So on. So on.

So St. Louis is a mid-market city, but the St. Louis Cardinals are not a mid-market baseball club, and nor do they operate like one. Their fanbase defies the mid-market label. Go beyond the 3 million that Scott Boras cited and consider the merchandising that comes with being one of the most recognizable brands in baseball. Or, think of the broadcast fees the Cardinals command because of the sheer geography of their fandom. It’s Cardinals Nation, not Cardinals Suburb. Boras is correct.

All of that allows the Cardinals to operate with a payroll bigger than their market. There is a symbiotic relationship between attendance and fanbase spending and the club’s payroll. With one ranking high within baseball, so should the other, and vice versa. The Cardinals acknowledge that, and they should be held to that.

RICK HUMMEL
The Cardinals, while certainly mid-market as far as metropilitan area population, are higher than that because of their 3,000,000 attendance every year. However, they don’t have nearly the broadcast revenue of the New Yorks, Bostons, Los Angeles teams and the Chicago teams. Therein lies the major issue in their trying to bid with those teams for free-agent players.

JEFF GORDON
When you factor in media revenue — a huge piece of the puzzle — the Cards are an upper mid-level team. They are well behind the LA teams, the NY teams, Boston and the Chicago Cubs. They are in that next group and that is pretty much how the franchise spends. The Cards will outspend teams like Cincinnati, Atlanta, Cleveland for years to come. This means the team can afford to pay Albert Pujols the going rate . . . but it also means the Cards can’t go deep in the Matt Holliday sweepstakes.

KEVIN WHEELER (Host of “Sports Open Line” on KMOX)
According to Forbes Magazine the Cardinals are 7th in terms of franchise value, a number Boras also cited yesterday, though incorrectly using that ranking for revenue rather than franchise value. Forbes ranked the Cardinals 10th in total revenue for the 2008 season (too early for ’09 numbers to be considered) and they were 12th for 2007.

Based on those rankings, I’d have to say the “mid-market” label is misleading. The Cardinals generate more revenue than teams in much bigger markets, like Houston and Dallas, and the size of the media market isn’t as important as how much money comes in.

Their payroll ranking is generally right where their revenue ranking is. The Cardinals had the 11th highest payroll in baseball in 2006, 2007 and 2008. They were 6th if you go back as far as 2005 and they were 13th in 2009 because they adjusted their season-opening payroll over concerns about the economy. Then they added significant salaries like Mark DeRosa and Holliday as the season went on. They could afford to expand the payroll, I have no doubt about that, but it’s not like they’re pulling a fast one on the fans.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: While so much of the free-agent focus for the Cardinals seems to be on Matt Holliday or a replacement for him in left field, what is another part of this team where help is needed and that fans may be overlooking?

JOE STRAUSS
There is an obvious need to replace what Joel Pineiro represented this year. The Cardinals were a pitching-dominant team for much of this season, so much so that their offensive deficiencies were masked until September’s fade. Should Holliday go elsewhere, the Cardinals may spend more resources on a starting pitcher since they concede there is no way to replace Holliday with a single offensive talent. The public clamor for Boston Red Sox free agent Jason Bay is likely to go unanswered. It’s increasingly likely the club will seek to fortify its bullpen with an established set-up reliever to front Ryan Franklin. Think a Russ Springer type, not a Billy Wagner type.

RICK HUMMEL
The Cardinals must have an everyday third baseman, something they didn’t have until Mark DeRosa was reasonably healthy in late July. And, of course, there is no guarantee he will be back. Also, the Cardinals must put together a bench with more firepower, especially from the standpoint of adding a veteran hitter.

JEFF GORDON
This team needs a proven power arm for the right side of the bullpen. That person could graduate into the closing role if Ryan Franklin is unable to regain his ’09 regular season form. And this team could also use a proven left-handed starting pitcher to balance up the rotation. Also, this team needs a lefty bat for the bench — somebody with some pop. So there is lots to do here.

DAN O’NEILL
Without question, the Cardinals have to improve their bench. Signing Mark DeRosa would go a long way toward that goal in that he can play several positions and he hits with power. It could also be that the club has more help for the bench from its Memphis affiliate (Allen Craig?). But certainly, the Cardinals need a bench crew that includes a good defensive infielder and a couple of bats that make the opposing manager pay attention.

KEVIN WHEELER (Host of “Sports Open Line” on KMOX)
One of the spots in the starting rotation will still have to be filled with a Major League starter. I can’t envision the team giving Joel Pineiro a long-term contract based on one strong season, so with he and John Smoltz filing for free agency the team currently has two rotation spots open. The wise move would be to fill one of them with a solid veteran — maybe bringing Smoltz back — while leaving the fifth spot for someone like Jaime Garcia to claim in spring training.

I don’t think anyone is really overlooking this part of the team but while Matt Holliday is the big name we’re all talking about, let’s not forget that this team was carried largely by the starting rotation in ’09 and they’ll have to make sure someone is there to replace what Pineiro gave them this past season.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: Do you think the money the Yankees spend on payroll in any way diminishes their World Series championship? It seems many fans cry “foul” about the Yankees payroll. But don’t most fans want their favorite teams’ owners to spend as much as possible to field a winner?

JEFF GORDON
The high payroll absolutely diminishes the title. A team that outspends rivals by such an enormous margin should play in every World Series. Period. The Yankees can buy elite talent AND replace ineffective players on the fly AND buy quality replacements for injured guys. They can outspend their front-office mistakes and outspend any injury misfortune. They can keep spending all the way to the end of the season. The variables most franchises wrestle with from year to year don’t apply to the Yankees. The players still have to play, of course, but the Yankees should enter every postseason with the best team.

DERRICK GOOLD
Absolutely not. The money the Yankees threw at their lineup in no way diminishes their World Series title. It only gave them better access to October to win their 27th World Series. The notion that a championship can be bought in baseball is cliché and fiction. Big-budget payrolls only help a team like the Yankees avoid the cycle of competion we’ve seen from Florida, Tampa Bay, Cleveland, et al. The Yankees, Red Sox and, in some ways, the Cardinals defy the law of averages by spending enough to assure a place in the postseason. What they do when they get there has everything to do with how they spent their money, not how much they spent. All fans should want their teams to spend more, sure, but it’s much better to spend it more wisely.

RICK HUMMEL
Baseball had its best television ratings in years. People want to watch the Yankees — many to see them lose — but they are the best entertainment in the sport. The Yankees’ payroll was about the same as it was the previous season — of course, it was over $200 million.

DAN O’NEILL
I don’t think the Yankees’ payroll necessarily diminishes the World Series win. The Yankees have been baseball’s biggest spenders for many years, yet this is their first World Series win since 2000.

I think the picture is bigger. I think a lot of people feel anything the Yankees do is diminished because of their payroll budget. It certainly helps them be in position to contend on a regular basis. But if anything, in the big picture, the Yankees are living proof you cannot just go out and buy a championship. There’s more to it than that.

KEVIN WHEELER (Host of “Sports Open Line” on KMOX)
It doesn’t diminish what the Yankees players have done but it certainly illustrates how much easier it is for Brian Cashman and the Steinbrenners than it is for just about everyone else. They were unhappy with their team so they sign spent $340 million on Mark Teixeira and CC Sabathia in their effort to win another championship. Must be nice.

Interestingly enough, the Yankees payroll was actually down $8 million compared to 2008. Also, under the luxury tax system in MLB, the more you spend the more you wind up handing off to other teams. The Yankees are going to pay $27 million in luxury tax for 2009 on top of their $201,449,189 payroll and by the time that check clears they will have paid $175 million in luxury taxes over the last 7 years.

What’s ironic to me is that so many Americans cry foul about “sharing the wealth” when those words are uttered within the political spectrum, yet that’s exactly the kind of system they want for their sports leagues. Interesting dichotomy, no? I like the “free market with limits” rules that Major League Baseball has compared to the strict spread-the-wealth-evenly systems in the NBA, NHL and NFL, but fans seem to gravitate toward those systems. I like the idea that owners in baseball can do whatever they want — as long as they’re willing to pay the price of doing business like the Yankees do.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: Assuming the Cardinals cannot get Matt Holliday re-signed and that Jason Bay stays with Boston, who are some other options out there that you think the Cardinals should pursue to man left field?

JOE STRAUSS
First, it is premature to assume either premise. Holliday’s market may not be as firm as some insist, especially if Bay returns to Boston and the New York Yankees remain on the periphery. But playing along, the leading free agent outfielders remain Bobby Abreu, a Type A who can steal bases but is also a very limited defender who has suffered a significant ebb in power. The Cardinals literally return to where they started if Holliday leaves, becoming a Pujols-centric attack almost forced to put Ryan Ludwick into the cleanup role.

If the club is serious about giving David Freese a chance to win the third base job, its best options become a trade for an outfielder. John Mozeliak acquired Troy Glaus under duress before the ’08 season. It is feasible that the Washington Nationals make Adam Dunn available this winter before he enters the walk year of his deal. Dunn is owed $10 million next season, a relative bargain in comparison to a 6-8 year deal for Holliday or a 4-year splurge on Bay. Bay, however, represents an extremely good fit in St. Louis should talks with the Red Sox stall.

DERRICK GOOLD
One of the reasons the Cardinals’ push for Matt Holliday is so pivotal to their 2010 roster is there is a steep plummet from the class of Holliday and Jason Bay to the other free agents out there this winter. Not one of them is an obvious candidate to hit cleanup behind Albert Pujols like either of those top-shelf left fielders would be. Bobby Abreu or Vlad Guerrero may have the name recognition to do so, but they don’t have that everyday, NL look at this point in their careers.

A name in that second or third tier of free agents that intrigues is Xavier Nady, one year removed from a 97-RBI turn with Pittsburgh and the New York Yankees. He lost 2009 to injury, but had back-to-back 20-homer seasons before that. Nady would be an interesting instant-scratch ticket. Some low-risk options could be found in the secondary market — the players non-tendered by teams. According to reports, the Florida Marlins are likely to non-tender Jeremy Hermida, a lapsed top prospect, and former Brave outfielder Jeff Francoeur could be set free by the New York Mets. Not the big-splash, big bat the Cardinals crave for the middle of the lineup. But if they whiff on Holliday it may be where the Cardinals have to go to supplement the in-house candidates and hope lightning strikes left field.

RICK HUMMEL
Give Allen Craig, one of the top power hitters in Class AAA at Memphis, a glove and work him out in left field all spring. His bat may be good enough but possibly not his defense. Otherwise, sign DeRosa, if his wrist is deemed all right, and make him more or less a full-time outfielder.

JEFF GORDON
I would keep Mark DeRosa and play him in the outfield, if it is determined Skip Schumaker is the long-haul solution at 2B. I’m not sure you can find somebody else with solid 20-homer, 80-RBI potential in free agency. This could also open the door for somebody like Allen Craig to get some OF at bats when De Rosa takes some starts at 3B to spell Freese or 2B when Skip gets a break against lefties.

There isn’t much to deal for, say, a Josh Willingham-type. A guy like Xavier Nady could be interesting to rehab.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: Given the success of rookie Colby Rasmus, it seems increasingly unlikely that the Cardinals will bring back free agent centerfielder Rick Ankiel. What do you think Ankiel’s legacy will be in St. Louis … the wunderkind pitcher who lost it? The feel-good story of coming back with a bang in his first big-league season as an outfielder? The player who struggled to find much consistency at the plate this past year? Or are these things oversimplifications of how Cardinal fans will remember Ankiel?

JOE STRAUSS
I don’t think any of those should be discounted. For much of his career Ankiel was a curiosity, a marvelous talent wrapped within a swirl of suspicion, potential and paranoia. There was also the revelation about his HGH use that MLB and the Cardinals couldn’t wait to explain away. Though regarded as a good teammate, Ankiel never overcame resentment of media that reported on what millions witnessed in the 2000 postseason and beyond. To pass judgment in such a short forum minimizes a talent who endured more than some entire clubhouses have experienced personally and professionally. Ankiel ultimately let his departure from the Cardinals clubhouse speak for him — out the back door without a word.

BERNIE MIKLASZ
Easily one of the most overhyped Cardinals in franchise history. Just think of all of the money, time and patience invested in a guy who pitched 242 innings and had 1,044 at-bats at the big-league level since joining the Cardinals in 1999.

DERRICK GOOLD
Simply and dramatically put, Ankiel is the Cardinals’ Hamlet. He was a tortured soul capable of sheer brilliance. A compelling and riveting story that didn’t end well. And, ultimately, a personality most will wish they could have known — or rather, understood — better. Ankiel’s career as a Cardinal is one of the most remarkable reinventions in baseball, but it is also a story of talent unrealized. That is his legacy. Not just the roman-candle pitching talent who burned bright before burning out. Not just the outfielder. Not just the HGH admission, or the playoff wild pitches or even the seven-RBI magic on Sept. 6, 2007. How he’ll be remembered as a Cardinal is all of that, all that he was, but also all he didn’t become.

RICK HUMMEL
You’d like to think that more fans would remember Ankiel’s stunning comeback to the majors as an outfielder or even his impressive rookie season of 2000 before his pitching meltdown. But probably more will remember what happened lately — meaning last season, when Ankiel,was never quite the same after running into the center-field wall, and had a highly mediocre offensive season.

JEFF GORDON
Above all else, fans would remember Rick Ankiel as one of the best athletes they’ve ever seen — and one of the more disappointing performers of all time. He looked like one of the best young lefties of his generation, then he broke down on the mound. His switch to the outfield was somewhat inspirational, but then he never matured as a hitter. If 2009 was his final season in St. Louis, it will be remembered with great exasperation.

KEVIN WHEELER (Host of “Sports Open Line” on KMOX)
To me Ankiel will always be “The Enigma.” He’s a guy that has more raw, physical talent than almost any player in the game but what goes on between the ears disrupts what the rest of his body can accomplish on the field. That’s true of his first career as a pitcher and of his current career as an outfielder. Ankiel had an elite fastball, a knee-buckling breaking ball and a fluid, easy motion on the hill. As a position player he has very good speed, amazing arm strength and a powerful swing capable of generating 30-35 home runs per year.

In both cases, however, what goes on in his mind has interrupted his performance on the field. It’s no coincidence that he started off well in both “careers” and then tailed off viciously after experiencing some form of failure or hardship. From the time he was called up in 2007 until the All-Star break of 2008, Ankiel hit .276 with 31 HR and 89 RBI in just 479 ABs. Since the ’08 All-Star break he’s hit just .234 with 16 HR and 59 RBI in 478 AB. Prior to the 2000 playoffs Ankiel was 11-8 with a 3.46 ERA and 233 strikeouts in 208 IP. He appeared in only 11 Major League games as a pitcher following the 2000 playoffs, allowing 9 HRs in 35 IP and posting a 6.62 ERA.

I don’t mean any of that as a shot at Ankiel — I don’t think he can control whatever it is that holds him back — but it’s quite obvious that he’s capable of a lot more than he has accomplished. This is not a simple issue as it almost certainly relates in some way to off-the-field issues (his father’s legal problems for example) but there is clearly something that keeps Ankiel from being as great as he is physically capable of being. I know he’s had injuries, but they don’t seem to adequately explain the dramatic declines he experienced in both of his careers.

QUESTION: What kind of credentials do most hitting coaches bring to the job at the major league level? And does Mark McGwire and his .263 lifetime average seem to measure up for such a position?

JOE STRAUSS

The Chicago Cubs just made Rudy Jaramillo the game’s highest-paid hitting coach and its second highest-paid coach of any description. Jaramillo never played above Double-A but is now the longest-tenured hitting coach in the major leagues. His defection from the Texas Rangers was the equivalent to Dave Duncan leaving the Cardinals as pitching coach. There is only a loose connection between major-league success and effectiveness as a hitting coach. Charlie Lau, whose philosophies revolutionized the craft, was a career .255 hitter with 16 home runs in fewer than 1,200 major-league at-bats. Don Mattingly, a borderline Hall of Famer, is recognized for doing strong work with the Los Angeles Dodgers after serving in the same capacity for the New York Yankees. Like McGwire, Mattingly served no apprenticeship in the minor leagues. Greatness as a player does not automatically translate into the ability to recognize flaws and to communicate fixes. The greatest hitter ever, Ted Williams, quickly became frustrated trying to help those less gifted than he. Tony La Russa on Monday described the job as more art than science. The inability to predict makes the Cardinals’ selection of McGwire all the more intriguing.

BERNIE MIKLASZ

What McGwire did as a hitter in the majors is largely irrelevant, especially his batting average. But to gauge McGwire’s intelligence as a hitter, take a look at his on-base percentage and the average number of pitches he took per at-bat. Charlie Lau was considered one of the best hitting coaches in MLB history and as a player he batted .255 in the bigs, with a mediocre .318 OBP and .365 slugging percentage. Another revered hitting coach was Walt Hriniak, who batted .253 in only 111 plate appearances. One of the current hitting coaches who garners rave reviews is Rudy Jaramillo, who was just signed to a $2 million deal by the Cubs. He never played in the majors and hit .258 in the minors. Terry Pendleton and Don Mattingly are among the former players who became MLB batting coaches with no coaching time in the minors.

McGwire was a smart hitter in the second half of his career; his cerebral approach was an important part of his success. And his work ethic and dedication as a hitter was underrated. But what is his hitting philosophy? Does it fit all hitters, from the power guys to the singles hitters? Can he communicate the philosophy in a simple way? Can he repair a hitter’s mechanical flaws? Can he connect in a way that will reach and lift a struggling hitter’s confidence? McGwire has been praised for his 1-on-1 work with hitters but how will he deal with a roster of position players — 14 or 15 hitters — at the same time? These are all legit questions, and obviously manager Tony La Russa believes that McGwire has the right combination of hitting intellect and people skills. We’ll see.

JEFF GORDON

Intuitively, you would expect a hitter who used all the fields (like Hal McRae) would offer more than a dead pull hitter (like Mark McGwire). But Big Mac is something of a freak when it comes to mental preparation, concentration at the plate and mastery of the strike zone. With an OPS exceeding 1.000 during his Cards heyday, McGwire became one of the toughest outs in baseball. Even without his intentional walks, his latter-day OPS was very good in St. Louis. If some of this can rub off on guys like Ryan Ludwick, great.

KEVIN WHEELER (Host of “Sports Open Line” on KMOX)

There is no such thing as a “set of credentials” that a hitting coach can bring to the table. Their backgrounds are varied and there is no “path” to becoming a successful hitting instructor, no prerequisites that prove whether or not an individual will be good at the job. Some of the best hitting instructors of all time were mediocre hitters during their playing days, some of the worst had what would seem to be perfect pedigrees.

I believe McGwire will be a good hitting instructor for two reasons: because hitting is his passion in life and because he values preparation, much like Dave Duncan does when it comes to pitching.

What McGwire was really good at as a hitter was working counts in his favor so he could do what he did best…hit the ball over the fence. His career average may have been low but his on-base percentage was .394 and he hit a home run every 10.6 at-bats. In other words, he knew how to play to his own strength. That’s what he’ll be asked to do for the Cardinals hitters: refine their approaches and identify the occasional glitch so they, too, can emphasize their strengths at the plate. Plus, he’ll know when to leave well enough (read: Albert Pujols) alone.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: As the Phillies head to their second consecutive World Series it raises the question, “What does Philadelphia have that the Cardinals do not?”

DERRICK GOOLD
Where to begin? How about where the difference is the greatest? The lineup. The Phillies have one of the deepest, one of the most power-packed and actually one of the most underrated lineups in baseball. Chase Utley may be the most complete lefthanded-hitter in the National League. Ryan Howard, Mr. September to the locals, is a power threat that is emerging as a Mr. October. Jimmy Rollins is a former MVP (Matt Holliday was robbed!) and a switch-hitting speed threat. And if the number of elite hitters doesn’t reveal the gulch between the depth of the Phillies’ lineup and the Cardinals’ lineup, consider Shane Victorino and Jayson Werth are complementary hitters in that lineup — and would be linchpins of the Cardinals.

Too much of the Cardinals lineup is isolated around one bat swinging well. His name: Albert Pujols. The Phillies have many players who can spark a rally, continue a rally or invent a rally on their own. They don’t need three hits to score one run. They often need one hit to score three runs. It’s easy to take potshots at the studio they call a ballpark and acknowledge that it adds to the Phillies’ power threat. But here’s the thing: Take away the power, and the Phillies still have the balance and depth to bombard teams anywhere else, too. The Cardinals just don’t have that many dimensions to their offense.

BERNIE MIKLASZ
The Phillies had a much deeper and stronger lineup. If you go by combined onbase + slugging percentage (OPS), the Phillies have the edge over the Cardinals at six of the eight positions. (We’re not counting the pitchers’ batting performances in this statistical breakdown). The only spots where the Cardinals had the better OPS than the Phillies this season were first base and shortstop. The Phillies ranked in the top 5 in the NL in OPS at six positions, and were No. 1 in the league at second base and right field. Their outfielders, overall, were No. 1. They were No. 2 in OPS at center field and fourth in OPS in left field. The Cardinals lagged terribly in the position-by-position OPS rankings at third base (15th), center field (13th) and right field (12th) and were mediocre in left field (8th) and second base (8th). St. Louis outfielders overall were 12th among 16 NL outfields with a .743 OPS — or 108 points less than the OPS generated by the Phillies’ outfield.

The Phillies also led the NL in slugging percentage and had a lot more danger in their lineup from top to bottom, finishing with nearly 100 more extra-base hits than the Cardinals.

Finally, there was a huge disparity between the teams in their batting performance against LH pitching. The Phillies were the league’s second-best team in OPS vs. LH (.787) and the Cardinals finished last in OPS vs. LH (.674).

RICK HUMMEL
The one thing the Phillies have that the Cardinals don’t have is damage up and down their lineup, from No. 1, where Jimmy Rollins hit 21 homers, to No. 8, where Carlos Ruiz has been a postseason star. Also, they seem to be better hitters with men in scoring position.

JEFF GORDON
Run production! That lineup wears out pitchers. There is danger everywhere. How many at bats would Chris Duncan, Rick Ankiel, Joe Thurston, Khalil Greene, Troy Glaus, et al, have earned in that group? Fans clamor for a one big hitter to protect Albert, but the challenge is to assemble a dangerous attack, one through eight. The Cards can move in that direction, even without Holliday, by weeding all their .230 hitters off the roster.

KEVIN WHEELER (Host of “Sports Open Line” on KMOX)
Power, speed, offensive depth, better left-right balance in the order and better defense. The Cardinals pitching is a little better on the whole but not by all that much.

The Phillies hit 40 percent more home runs (224 to 160) than the Cardinals, plus they stole 59 percent more bases (119 to 75), walked 12 percent more often (589 to 528) and they had a higher OPS (.781 to .747). In fact, Philly ranked 1st in the NL in OPS and HR while finishing 2nd in steals. They had four 30 home run guys this year (Howard, Utley, Werth and Ibanez) compared to one for the Cards (Pujols), which pretty much paints the picture for you.

In fact, 7 of their 8 “everyday players” reached double digits in home runs (Rollins had 21 as the leadoff man) and the only guy who missed out, catcher Carlos Ruiz, hit 9 homers despite missing 55 games.

The Cardinals had a strong team, one whose pitching carried them over the course of the long 162 game season, but the Phillies have a dynamic, explosive team and one that is better suited for a playoff run.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: What does your gut tell you as far as whether or not Tony La Russa will return with the Cardinals next season?

JOE STRAUSS
There are more reasons to believe TLR will return than not. It’s been 10 days since the Cardinals’ inglorious exit from the postseason. No one needs to tell the manager how much the organization invested into this season. He is soul-searching to examine what went wrong, whether he still commands his players’ attention and, at 65, to determine if he still wants to put himself through the annual 8-month grind. The Cardinals may be prepared to make him the game’s highest-paid skipper, status he briefly enjoyed before the LA Dodgers hired Joe Torre two years ago. TLR says he is not interested in managing elsewhere should he step away. However, there is some intrigue given than Torre and the Atlanta Braves’ Bobby Cox have both indicated next year will be their last in the dugout. The Dodgers job especially may be appealing. That strikes me as a longshot scenario, though.

RICK HUMMEL
Tony is back. One of his biggest concerns is that he is wearing thin with the media, which probably is exaggerated. His popularity with the fans, even though the Cardinals had an abrupt exit from postseason play, rarely has been higher. He is getting along nicely with general manager John Mozeliak and he has the best hitter and the top two starting pitchers in the National League.

DERRICK GOOLD
He’ll be back. The reasons to return far outnumber the niggling little hangups he really has to search to find. If La Russa is going to manage somewhere in 2010, the only somewhere he is ready to consider is the Cardinals. He either just wants to hear how much the team appreciates him and would like him to return, or he’s waiting for the results of Albert Pujols’ surgery to know for sure about the team’s chances to contend …

BRYAN BURWELL
To me, it’s hard to imagine that La Russa would walk away from the Cardinals with Albert Pujols, Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright at his disposal.