THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: Do you think the money the Yankees spend on payroll in any way diminishes their World Series championship? It seems many fans cry “foul” about the Yankees payroll. But don’t most fans want their favorite teams’ owners to spend as much as possible to field a winner?

JEFF GORDON
The high payroll absolutely diminishes the title. A team that outspends rivals by such an enormous margin should play in every World Series. Period. The Yankees can buy elite talent AND replace ineffective players on the fly AND buy quality replacements for injured guys. They can outspend their front-office mistakes and outspend any injury misfortune. They can keep spending all the way to the end of the season. The variables most franchises wrestle with from year to year don’t apply to the Yankees. The players still have to play, of course, but the Yankees should enter every postseason with the best team.

DERRICK GOOLD
Absolutely not. The money the Yankees threw at their lineup in no way diminishes their World Series title. It only gave them better access to October to win their 27th World Series. The notion that a championship can be bought in baseball is cliché and fiction. Big-budget payrolls only help a team like the Yankees avoid the cycle of competion we’ve seen from Florida, Tampa Bay, Cleveland, et al. The Yankees, Red Sox and, in some ways, the Cardinals defy the law of averages by spending enough to assure a place in the postseason. What they do when they get there has everything to do with how they spent their money, not how much they spent. All fans should want their teams to spend more, sure, but it’s much better to spend it more wisely.

RICK HUMMEL
Baseball had its best television ratings in years. People want to watch the Yankees — many to see them lose — but they are the best entertainment in the sport. The Yankees’ payroll was about the same as it was the previous season — of course, it was over $200 million.

DAN O’NEILL
I don’t think the Yankees’ payroll necessarily diminishes the World Series win. The Yankees have been baseball’s biggest spenders for many years, yet this is their first World Series win since 2000.

I think the picture is bigger. I think a lot of people feel anything the Yankees do is diminished because of their payroll budget. It certainly helps them be in position to contend on a regular basis. But if anything, in the big picture, the Yankees are living proof you cannot just go out and buy a championship. There’s more to it than that.

KEVIN WHEELER (Host of “Sports Open Line” on KMOX)
It doesn’t diminish what the Yankees players have done but it certainly illustrates how much easier it is for Brian Cashman and the Steinbrenners than it is for just about everyone else. They were unhappy with their team so they sign spent $340 million on Mark Teixeira and CC Sabathia in their effort to win another championship. Must be nice.

Interestingly enough, the Yankees payroll was actually down $8 million compared to 2008. Also, under the luxury tax system in MLB, the more you spend the more you wind up handing off to other teams. The Yankees are going to pay $27 million in luxury tax for 2009 on top of their $201,449,189 payroll and by the time that check clears they will have paid $175 million in luxury taxes over the last 7 years.

What’s ironic to me is that so many Americans cry foul about “sharing the wealth” when those words are uttered within the political spectrum, yet that’s exactly the kind of system they want for their sports leagues. Interesting dichotomy, no? I like the “free market with limits” rules that Major League Baseball has compared to the strict spread-the-wealth-evenly systems in the NBA, NHL and NFL, but fans seem to gravitate toward those systems. I like the idea that owners in baseball can do whatever they want — as long as they’re willing to pay the price of doing business like the Yankees do.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: Assuming the Cardinals cannot get Matt Holliday re-signed and that Jason Bay stays with Boston, who are some other options out there that you think the Cardinals should pursue to man left field?

JOE STRAUSS
First, it is premature to assume either premise. Holliday’s market may not be as firm as some insist, especially if Bay returns to Boston and the New York Yankees remain on the periphery. But playing along, the leading free agent outfielders remain Bobby Abreu, a Type A who can steal bases but is also a very limited defender who has suffered a significant ebb in power. The Cardinals literally return to where they started if Holliday leaves, becoming a Pujols-centric attack almost forced to put Ryan Ludwick into the cleanup role.

If the club is serious about giving David Freese a chance to win the third base job, its best options become a trade for an outfielder. John Mozeliak acquired Troy Glaus under duress before the ’08 season. It is feasible that the Washington Nationals make Adam Dunn available this winter before he enters the walk year of his deal. Dunn is owed $10 million next season, a relative bargain in comparison to a 6-8 year deal for Holliday or a 4-year splurge on Bay. Bay, however, represents an extremely good fit in St. Louis should talks with the Red Sox stall.

DERRICK GOOLD
One of the reasons the Cardinals’ push for Matt Holliday is so pivotal to their 2010 roster is there is a steep plummet from the class of Holliday and Jason Bay to the other free agents out there this winter. Not one of them is an obvious candidate to hit cleanup behind Albert Pujols like either of those top-shelf left fielders would be. Bobby Abreu or Vlad Guerrero may have the name recognition to do so, but they don’t have that everyday, NL look at this point in their careers.

A name in that second or third tier of free agents that intrigues is Xavier Nady, one year removed from a 97-RBI turn with Pittsburgh and the New York Yankees. He lost 2009 to injury, but had back-to-back 20-homer seasons before that. Nady would be an interesting instant-scratch ticket. Some low-risk options could be found in the secondary market — the players non-tendered by teams. According to reports, the Florida Marlins are likely to non-tender Jeremy Hermida, a lapsed top prospect, and former Brave outfielder Jeff Francoeur could be set free by the New York Mets. Not the big-splash, big bat the Cardinals crave for the middle of the lineup. But if they whiff on Holliday it may be where the Cardinals have to go to supplement the in-house candidates and hope lightning strikes left field.

RICK HUMMEL
Give Allen Craig, one of the top power hitters in Class AAA at Memphis, a glove and work him out in left field all spring. His bat may be good enough but possibly not his defense. Otherwise, sign DeRosa, if his wrist is deemed all right, and make him more or less a full-time outfielder.

JEFF GORDON
I would keep Mark DeRosa and play him in the outfield, if it is determined Skip Schumaker is the long-haul solution at 2B. I’m not sure you can find somebody else with solid 20-homer, 80-RBI potential in free agency. This could also open the door for somebody like Allen Craig to get some OF at bats when De Rosa takes some starts at 3B to spell Freese or 2B when Skip gets a break against lefties.

There isn’t much to deal for, say, a Josh Willingham-type. A guy like Xavier Nady could be interesting to rehab.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: Given the success of rookie Colby Rasmus, it seems increasingly unlikely that the Cardinals will bring back free agent centerfielder Rick Ankiel. What do you think Ankiel’s legacy will be in St. Louis … the wunderkind pitcher who lost it? The feel-good story of coming back with a bang in his first big-league season as an outfielder? The player who struggled to find much consistency at the plate this past year? Or are these things oversimplifications of how Cardinal fans will remember Ankiel?

JOE STRAUSS
I don’t think any of those should be discounted. For much of his career Ankiel was a curiosity, a marvelous talent wrapped within a swirl of suspicion, potential and paranoia. There was also the revelation about his HGH use that MLB and the Cardinals couldn’t wait to explain away. Though regarded as a good teammate, Ankiel never overcame resentment of media that reported on what millions witnessed in the 2000 postseason and beyond. To pass judgment in such a short forum minimizes a talent who endured more than some entire clubhouses have experienced personally and professionally. Ankiel ultimately let his departure from the Cardinals clubhouse speak for him — out the back door without a word.

BERNIE MIKLASZ
Easily one of the most overhyped Cardinals in franchise history. Just think of all of the money, time and patience invested in a guy who pitched 242 innings and had 1,044 at-bats at the big-league level since joining the Cardinals in 1999.

DERRICK GOOLD
Simply and dramatically put, Ankiel is the Cardinals’ Hamlet. He was a tortured soul capable of sheer brilliance. A compelling and riveting story that didn’t end well. And, ultimately, a personality most will wish they could have known — or rather, understood — better. Ankiel’s career as a Cardinal is one of the most remarkable reinventions in baseball, but it is also a story of talent unrealized. That is his legacy. Not just the roman-candle pitching talent who burned bright before burning out. Not just the outfielder. Not just the HGH admission, or the playoff wild pitches or even the seven-RBI magic on Sept. 6, 2007. How he’ll be remembered as a Cardinal is all of that, all that he was, but also all he didn’t become.

RICK HUMMEL
You’d like to think that more fans would remember Ankiel’s stunning comeback to the majors as an outfielder or even his impressive rookie season of 2000 before his pitching meltdown. But probably more will remember what happened lately — meaning last season, when Ankiel,was never quite the same after running into the center-field wall, and had a highly mediocre offensive season.

JEFF GORDON
Above all else, fans would remember Rick Ankiel as one of the best athletes they’ve ever seen — and one of the more disappointing performers of all time. He looked like one of the best young lefties of his generation, then he broke down on the mound. His switch to the outfield was somewhat inspirational, but then he never matured as a hitter. If 2009 was his final season in St. Louis, it will be remembered with great exasperation.

KEVIN WHEELER (Host of “Sports Open Line” on KMOX)
To me Ankiel will always be “The Enigma.” He’s a guy that has more raw, physical talent than almost any player in the game but what goes on between the ears disrupts what the rest of his body can accomplish on the field. That’s true of his first career as a pitcher and of his current career as an outfielder. Ankiel had an elite fastball, a knee-buckling breaking ball and a fluid, easy motion on the hill. As a position player he has very good speed, amazing arm strength and a powerful swing capable of generating 30-35 home runs per year.

In both cases, however, what goes on in his mind has interrupted his performance on the field. It’s no coincidence that he started off well in both “careers” and then tailed off viciously after experiencing some form of failure or hardship. From the time he was called up in 2007 until the All-Star break of 2008, Ankiel hit .276 with 31 HR and 89 RBI in just 479 ABs. Since the ’08 All-Star break he’s hit just .234 with 16 HR and 59 RBI in 478 AB. Prior to the 2000 playoffs Ankiel was 11-8 with a 3.46 ERA and 233 strikeouts in 208 IP. He appeared in only 11 Major League games as a pitcher following the 2000 playoffs, allowing 9 HRs in 35 IP and posting a 6.62 ERA.

I don’t mean any of that as a shot at Ankiel — I don’t think he can control whatever it is that holds him back — but it’s quite obvious that he’s capable of a lot more than he has accomplished. This is not a simple issue as it almost certainly relates in some way to off-the-field issues (his father’s legal problems for example) but there is clearly something that keeps Ankiel from being as great as he is physically capable of being. I know he’s had injuries, but they don’t seem to adequately explain the dramatic declines he experienced in both of his careers.

QUESTION: What kind of credentials do most hitting coaches bring to the job at the major league level? And does Mark McGwire and his .263 lifetime average seem to measure up for such a position?

JOE STRAUSS

The Chicago Cubs just made Rudy Jaramillo the game’s highest-paid hitting coach and its second highest-paid coach of any description. Jaramillo never played above Double-A but is now the longest-tenured hitting coach in the major leagues. His defection from the Texas Rangers was the equivalent to Dave Duncan leaving the Cardinals as pitching coach. There is only a loose connection between major-league success and effectiveness as a hitting coach. Charlie Lau, whose philosophies revolutionized the craft, was a career .255 hitter with 16 home runs in fewer than 1,200 major-league at-bats. Don Mattingly, a borderline Hall of Famer, is recognized for doing strong work with the Los Angeles Dodgers after serving in the same capacity for the New York Yankees. Like McGwire, Mattingly served no apprenticeship in the minor leagues. Greatness as a player does not automatically translate into the ability to recognize flaws and to communicate fixes. The greatest hitter ever, Ted Williams, quickly became frustrated trying to help those less gifted than he. Tony La Russa on Monday described the job as more art than science. The inability to predict makes the Cardinals’ selection of McGwire all the more intriguing.

BERNIE MIKLASZ

What McGwire did as a hitter in the majors is largely irrelevant, especially his batting average. But to gauge McGwire’s intelligence as a hitter, take a look at his on-base percentage and the average number of pitches he took per at-bat. Charlie Lau was considered one of the best hitting coaches in MLB history and as a player he batted .255 in the bigs, with a mediocre .318 OBP and .365 slugging percentage. Another revered hitting coach was Walt Hriniak, who batted .253 in only 111 plate appearances. One of the current hitting coaches who garners rave reviews is Rudy Jaramillo, who was just signed to a $2 million deal by the Cubs. He never played in the majors and hit .258 in the minors. Terry Pendleton and Don Mattingly are among the former players who became MLB batting coaches with no coaching time in the minors.

McGwire was a smart hitter in the second half of his career; his cerebral approach was an important part of his success. And his work ethic and dedication as a hitter was underrated. But what is his hitting philosophy? Does it fit all hitters, from the power guys to the singles hitters? Can he communicate the philosophy in a simple way? Can he repair a hitter’s mechanical flaws? Can he connect in a way that will reach and lift a struggling hitter’s confidence? McGwire has been praised for his 1-on-1 work with hitters but how will he deal with a roster of position players — 14 or 15 hitters — at the same time? These are all legit questions, and obviously manager Tony La Russa believes that McGwire has the right combination of hitting intellect and people skills. We’ll see.

JEFF GORDON

Intuitively, you would expect a hitter who used all the fields (like Hal McRae) would offer more than a dead pull hitter (like Mark McGwire). But Big Mac is something of a freak when it comes to mental preparation, concentration at the plate and mastery of the strike zone. With an OPS exceeding 1.000 during his Cards heyday, McGwire became one of the toughest outs in baseball. Even without his intentional walks, his latter-day OPS was very good in St. Louis. If some of this can rub off on guys like Ryan Ludwick, great.

KEVIN WHEELER (Host of “Sports Open Line” on KMOX)

There is no such thing as a “set of credentials” that a hitting coach can bring to the table. Their backgrounds are varied and there is no “path” to becoming a successful hitting instructor, no prerequisites that prove whether or not an individual will be good at the job. Some of the best hitting instructors of all time were mediocre hitters during their playing days, some of the worst had what would seem to be perfect pedigrees.

I believe McGwire will be a good hitting instructor for two reasons: because hitting is his passion in life and because he values preparation, much like Dave Duncan does when it comes to pitching.

What McGwire was really good at as a hitter was working counts in his favor so he could do what he did best…hit the ball over the fence. His career average may have been low but his on-base percentage was .394 and he hit a home run every 10.6 at-bats. In other words, he knew how to play to his own strength. That’s what he’ll be asked to do for the Cardinals hitters: refine their approaches and identify the occasional glitch so they, too, can emphasize their strengths at the plate. Plus, he’ll know when to leave well enough (read: Albert Pujols) alone.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: As the Phillies head to their second consecutive World Series it raises the question, “What does Philadelphia have that the Cardinals do not?”

DERRICK GOOLD
Where to begin? How about where the difference is the greatest? The lineup. The Phillies have one of the deepest, one of the most power-packed and actually one of the most underrated lineups in baseball. Chase Utley may be the most complete lefthanded-hitter in the National League. Ryan Howard, Mr. September to the locals, is a power threat that is emerging as a Mr. October. Jimmy Rollins is a former MVP (Matt Holliday was robbed!) and a switch-hitting speed threat. And if the number of elite hitters doesn’t reveal the gulch between the depth of the Phillies’ lineup and the Cardinals’ lineup, consider Shane Victorino and Jayson Werth are complementary hitters in that lineup — and would be linchpins of the Cardinals.

Too much of the Cardinals lineup is isolated around one bat swinging well. His name: Albert Pujols. The Phillies have many players who can spark a rally, continue a rally or invent a rally on their own. They don’t need three hits to score one run. They often need one hit to score three runs. It’s easy to take potshots at the studio they call a ballpark and acknowledge that it adds to the Phillies’ power threat. But here’s the thing: Take away the power, and the Phillies still have the balance and depth to bombard teams anywhere else, too. The Cardinals just don’t have that many dimensions to their offense.

BERNIE MIKLASZ
The Phillies had a much deeper and stronger lineup. If you go by combined onbase + slugging percentage (OPS), the Phillies have the edge over the Cardinals at six of the eight positions. (We’re not counting the pitchers’ batting performances in this statistical breakdown). The only spots where the Cardinals had the better OPS than the Phillies this season were first base and shortstop. The Phillies ranked in the top 5 in the NL in OPS at six positions, and were No. 1 in the league at second base and right field. Their outfielders, overall, were No. 1. They were No. 2 in OPS at center field and fourth in OPS in left field. The Cardinals lagged terribly in the position-by-position OPS rankings at third base (15th), center field (13th) and right field (12th) and were mediocre in left field (8th) and second base (8th). St. Louis outfielders overall were 12th among 16 NL outfields with a .743 OPS — or 108 points less than the OPS generated by the Phillies’ outfield.

The Phillies also led the NL in slugging percentage and had a lot more danger in their lineup from top to bottom, finishing with nearly 100 more extra-base hits than the Cardinals.

Finally, there was a huge disparity between the teams in their batting performance against LH pitching. The Phillies were the league’s second-best team in OPS vs. LH (.787) and the Cardinals finished last in OPS vs. LH (.674).

RICK HUMMEL
The one thing the Phillies have that the Cardinals don’t have is damage up and down their lineup, from No. 1, where Jimmy Rollins hit 21 homers, to No. 8, where Carlos Ruiz has been a postseason star. Also, they seem to be better hitters with men in scoring position.

JEFF GORDON
Run production! That lineup wears out pitchers. There is danger everywhere. How many at bats would Chris Duncan, Rick Ankiel, Joe Thurston, Khalil Greene, Troy Glaus, et al, have earned in that group? Fans clamor for a one big hitter to protect Albert, but the challenge is to assemble a dangerous attack, one through eight. The Cards can move in that direction, even without Holliday, by weeding all their .230 hitters off the roster.

KEVIN WHEELER (Host of “Sports Open Line” on KMOX)
Power, speed, offensive depth, better left-right balance in the order and better defense. The Cardinals pitching is a little better on the whole but not by all that much.

The Phillies hit 40 percent more home runs (224 to 160) than the Cardinals, plus they stole 59 percent more bases (119 to 75), walked 12 percent more often (589 to 528) and they had a higher OPS (.781 to .747). In fact, Philly ranked 1st in the NL in OPS and HR while finishing 2nd in steals. They had four 30 home run guys this year (Howard, Utley, Werth and Ibanez) compared to one for the Cards (Pujols), which pretty much paints the picture for you.

In fact, 7 of their 8 “everyday players” reached double digits in home runs (Rollins had 21 as the leadoff man) and the only guy who missed out, catcher Carlos Ruiz, hit 9 homers despite missing 55 games.

The Cardinals had a strong team, one whose pitching carried them over the course of the long 162 game season, but the Phillies have a dynamic, explosive team and one that is better suited for a playoff run.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: What does your gut tell you as far as whether or not Tony La Russa will return with the Cardinals next season?

JOE STRAUSS
There are more reasons to believe TLR will return than not. It’s been 10 days since the Cardinals’ inglorious exit from the postseason. No one needs to tell the manager how much the organization invested into this season. He is soul-searching to examine what went wrong, whether he still commands his players’ attention and, at 65, to determine if he still wants to put himself through the annual 8-month grind. The Cardinals may be prepared to make him the game’s highest-paid skipper, status he briefly enjoyed before the LA Dodgers hired Joe Torre two years ago. TLR says he is not interested in managing elsewhere should he step away. However, there is some intrigue given than Torre and the Atlanta Braves’ Bobby Cox have both indicated next year will be their last in the dugout. The Dodgers job especially may be appealing. That strikes me as a longshot scenario, though.

RICK HUMMEL
Tony is back. One of his biggest concerns is that he is wearing thin with the media, which probably is exaggerated. His popularity with the fans, even though the Cardinals had an abrupt exit from postseason play, rarely has been higher. He is getting along nicely with general manager John Mozeliak and he has the best hitter and the top two starting pitchers in the National League.

DERRICK GOOLD
He’ll be back. The reasons to return far outnumber the niggling little hangups he really has to search to find. If La Russa is going to manage somewhere in 2010, the only somewhere he is ready to consider is the Cardinals. He either just wants to hear how much the team appreciates him and would like him to return, or he’s waiting for the results of Albert Pujols’ surgery to know for sure about the team’s chances to contend …

BRYAN BURWELL
To me, it’s hard to imagine that La Russa would walk away from the Cardinals with Albert Pujols, Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright at his disposal.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: You hear much talk among Cardinal fans about players taking a “hometown discount” to play here in St. Louis. Matt Holliday is the centerpiece of “hometown discount” talk right now. In your professional opinion, how much weight do professional ballplayers give to being in a certain town, playing for a certain manager or having a certain kind of locker room chemistry? At the end of the day, doesn’t money do the talking in almost all cases of free agency?

RICK HUMMEL

Rarely does a player not follow the money, and I think you find that true even more in football than in baseball. I think this especially is true in the early stages of a player’s career, when he first can become a free agent, and his agent is hell-bent on getting the best offer. Near the end of that career, if a player hasn’t won before or is comfortable where he is, his attitude may change.

BRYAN BURWELL

Money is going to ultimately decide everything when it comes to any business. But who can blame them, when they have an opportunity to secure the financial future for their family for decades? The hometown discount is a myth. Players want to win and get paid. If they can win and get paid, they will take a little less money. But if they can’t win but they can get paid? Cha-ching.

JEFF GORDON

Every player is different. Some need to find a comfort zone to succeed in. Others, like Reggie Sanders, can move from team to team and do very well at every stop. This can be especially important to pitchers, who live or die with confidence. St. Louis developed a nice pitching atmosphere, which makes it easier to retain key free-agent pitchers. I think St. Louis is a good fit for Albert Pujols, who reigns as king of the clubhouse. As for Matt Holliday, he didn’t choose to come to St. Louis in that deal from Oakland. He seemed like a good fit here, but it’s not like he fell in love with the place. I would be surprised if he didn’t go to the highest bidder.

DAN O’NEILL

There is overwhelming evidence that money is the bottom line. Jeff Weaver is a recent case that underlines that - comes to the Cardinals, has the most success he’s had in years, but takes more money to go elsewhere the following winter. Ultimately you have to hold the players responsible for that, because their names go on the contracts. And I don’t necessarily blame them for that. The loyalty aspect, or lack thereof, works both ways. But most players rely heavily on advice from their agents, so I think a lot depends on the agent. The Cardinals will find out because they are not going to sign either Holliday or Mark DeRosa before they enter the market.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: What do you feel should be the Cardinals top priority this offseason?

JOE STRAUSS
Obviously, getting a handle on Matt Holliday’s situation is significant because of what signing him would do to the club’s financial flexibility. Likewise, losing him to free agency frees up significant money to pursue another direction. Holliday is Scott Boras’ leading free agent this winter. Boras typically leaves his top client on the market for an extended period. This tendency does not square with the Cardinals’ desire for a quick resolution. If Holliday reaches the open market, the Cardinals’ task in signing him becomes exponentially more difficult, so much so that Jason Bay’s name now freely floats within the organization. The team’s late-season meltdown against “plus” pitching underscores the need for further improvement.

DERRICK GOOLD
This very public eagerness to work on an extension with Albert Pujols strikes me as a non-traditional strategy, especially with two years remaining on his contract and his leverage likely never better with a second consecutive MVP on the way. It makes sense to do eventually, but why the push to do it now? Unless they want to do something in concert to make sure when they add a new player Pujols is still the highest-paid player . . . hmm. Simply, the priority should be outfitting the lineup around Pujols, Mr. I Want to Stay With a Contender, and to do that with the best bat that fits — the team’s finances, the team’s structure and the team’s approach, all of it. That still is Matt Holliday. Linking his best years to Pujols’ best years is in everyone’s interest.

RICK HUMMEL
The top priority is to explore the prospect of re-signing OF Matt Holliday to a long-term deal. If not, I would offer him arbitration (to make sure of getting two draft picks) and he might even accept that if there isn’t a long-term deal he likes anywhere.

JEFF GORDON
Top priority: Lock-up Albert Pujols for the long haul. Once that is done, the cornerstone is secured and all the other decisions will fall into place. The other matters are minor compared to this one. If he can’t be secured during this offseason, for whatever reason, then the need to re-sign Matt Holliday increases — since this team will need somebody to build a batting order around from 2012 on.

KEVIN WHEELER (Host of “Sports Open Line” on KMOX)
Bringing back the manager and the pitching coach would be at the top of my list. I’m not sure Matt Holliday is worth what the market will bear, so I wouldn’t rate him No. 1. Plus the team has kids like Allen Craig and Jon Jay who may prove worthy of an opportunity to do in 2010 what Colby Rasmus did in 2009. In fact, I’m almost leaning toward letting all the kids battle for the open roster spots early in the year and then dealing for veterans, if necessary, come June or July. I think what the team did this year worked quite well and I’d follow that pattern again just in case guys like Craig, Jay, David Freese, Jaime Garcia, Blake Hawksworth and Mitchell Boggs have breakthroughs. Spend the money to get Albert re-signed and then deal for veterans in-season, if necessary.

THE WATERCOOLER:
Is it smart baseball to spend nearly 40 percent of a team’s payroll on two players as the Cardinals could do with Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday?

JOE STRAUSS:
No. If the payroll were $125 million, then maybe. But with a $100 million payroll as the Cards were last year. No.

RICK HUMMEL:
If it were Pujols and Bob Gibson, maybe. But one of the players has to be a pitcher to be worth it.

BERNIE MIKLASZ:
The Cardinals are up against it unless they expand the payroll. If you count Albert Pujols’ existing contract, they’re alread obligated to pay out a guaranteed $55 million-plus to players in 2010, and it’s about the same in 2011. And keep in mind that the salary number is likely higher than that, because it does not include the arbitration-related salaries that will be paid to Ryan Ludwick and Skip Schumaker. On the positive side, the list does include three starting pitchers who are locked in for the next two (at least) seasons: Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright and Kyle Lohse. So they do have a rotation foundation to work with. And there are some young pitchers (Jaime Garcia, Blake Hawksworth, Mitchell Boggs, etc.) worthy of an opportunity. But if Matt Holliday commands, say, $15 million a year, you are looking at $70 million to $80 million guaranteed obligations for each of the next two seasons.And that doesn’t include Pujols’ likely increase if there’s a new contract for him. Either way, it doesn’t leave a lot of spending room for other needs, including third base, a strong fourth outfielder, perhaps a veteran starting pitcher, and the bench. The Cardinals can pull it off, but it’ll be tight. The question is: what is Holliday worth? Is he a $20 million a year player? No. Is he a $15 million a year player? I don’t think so, but he will be if some other team is crazy enough to offer it. I can’t set Holliday’s market price. The teams shopping for left fielders will do that. But I see no reason why he’d have to be paid as much as Pujols. Not even close, really. If the market breaks in the Cardinals’ favor, they might be able to get Holliday at a “reduced rate”, though we’re still talking about an awful lot of money.

DERRICK GOOLD:
If that were the Cardinals only payroll bloc to maneuver around then maybe. But it’s not. The Cardinals also have Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright and Kyle Lohse locked up for, possibly, the next three seasons, and in 2011 that trio will cost $33.5 million That means more than two-third of the projected payroll can be isolated on five players. The only way the Cardinals — or any other team for that matter — can lump so much of the payroll on so few players is if they can count on getting contributions from prospects and young stars — not players, stars — who not yet arbitration eligible. Colby Rasmus, for example, is one. Brendan Ryan, for another couple seasons, is another. Lefty Jaime Garcia projects as one. Outside the organization, however, the Cardinals are not viewed as a team that can lean this much on its minor-league system. The depth of the organization has improved. But its depth is mainly in complementary players. The Cardinals have players who will play in the majors. But there is a difference between minor-leaguers who play in the majors, those who stay in the majors and ones who will star in the majors. The Cardinals don’t have the obvious contributors storming up the ranks to paint themselves into a financial corner.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: What a night Thursday was. Cards lose in the bottom of the ninth. Mizzou gives up 27 points in the fourth quarter and falls to Nebraska. Blues give up 1-0 lead to lose their home opener. In your time covering sports here in St. Louis, what has been the most devastating loss you’ve witnessed?

DAN O’NEILL
What happened Thursday night was bad, but not close to being the most disappointing for this scribe. There was the Cardinals losing Game 7 of the 1968 World Series to Detroit, with Bob Gibson on the mound and Curt Flood misplaying a ball in center field. Gibson losing Game 7 — unthinkable. …There was Missouri’s overtime loss to Nebraska in 1997 when the Cornhuskers caught a bogus tipped pass in the end zone to stay alive. … Missouri’s basketball loss to UCLA in the 1995 NCAA Tournament when Lollipop Guild member Tyus Edney went the length of the floor with six seconds remaining. … the Don Denkinger call in the 1985 World Series. … Adam Vinatieri’s 48-yard field goal as time expired to beat the Rams in the Feb. 2002 Super Bowl. … Neil O’Donoghue’s miss from 50 yards as time expired in Washington, denying the Football Cardinals a playoff spot in 1984. … all were more disappointing than Thursday.

JIM THOMAS
Well, that’s a lot of ground to cover. I was in Oklahoma that sunny day in 1986 for the Norman Conquest: Sooners 77, Missouri 0. LB Brian Bosworth — The Boz — eating a hot dog, standing near the stands in the second half. … I covered a succession of Missouri basketball losses to the likes of Northern Iowa and Rhode Island in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. … And I’ve seen the Rams lose in just about every manner conceivable. But I have to go with Super Bowl XXXVI, New England’s stunning Super Bowl triumph over St. Louis. The Rams, Mike Martz, the Greatest Show on Turf were never the same after that one.

JEREMY RUTHERFORD
For sure, the Rams’ 20-17 Super Bowl loss to New England in 2002 was the worst in recent memory. Watching the Rams tie the score and then seeing Tom Brady march the Patriots 53 yards on six completions for Adam Vinatieri’s game-winning field goal was tough. But I’m going to throw another heartbreaker into the mix for the hockey fans. … It happened on Dec. 6, 2006. With a sellout crowd in attendance at Scottrade Center, where a lavish pregame ceremony took place to retire Brett Hull’s No. 16, the Blues laid a complete egg in a 5-1 loss to the Red Wings. To me, that was rock bottom of the Blues’ freefall. I’ll never forget Hull doing an interview with a few us during the game, and he made a comment about it being a great night despite the debacle on the ice. A few days later, Blues coach Mike Kitchen was fired, and the Andy Murray era began.

BILL COATS
Game 7 loss to the Tigers in the 1968 World Series. Cardinals were up 3-1 in the series, then Curt Flood slips in center field, then Mickey Lolich shuts down the bats. That took a while to get over.

KATHLEEN NELSON
Game 7, 1985, the game after the Denkinger fiasco against KC. The Cardinals lost 11-0. For goodness sake, it was the seventh game of the World Series and the Cardinals totally flopped. Their inability to rebound for the biggest game of the year was far more disheartening than losing because of a blown call.