THE WATERCOOLER:
The Cubs have lost five in a row but could get Aramis Ramirez back today and Ted Lilly on Monday. (No word yet on Carlos Zambrano.) Is it too early to count the Cubs out in the NL Central?

BRYAN BURWELL:
History shows us that the Cards don’t surrender leads this large this late. Now, combine that with the nightmarish cruel history of the Cubs and all the injuries and instability going on in Wrigleyville, and there is no other answer than “Turn out the lights, the party’s over.”

JOE STRAUSS:
The math still works for the Cubs but the direction of their season makes it hard to believe they will win a third consecutive NL Central title. Lilly and Zambrano are huge variables; however, Ramirez can transform the Cubs from a mediocre to a dangerous offense. His shoulder problems are more persistent than a 15-day stay on the disabled list. The Cubs remain inept on the road and against solid competition. Barring a sweep of the Cardinals during their three-game set at Busch Sept. 18-20, this just doesn’t seem to be the Cubs’ year. The Cardinals, meanwhile, have the look of a dangerous team: relatively healthy with three consistent starters and a deep lineup. Simply put, the Cardinals appear in control.

RICK HUMMEL:
With third baseman Aramis Ramirez returning, the Cubs again have a formidable lineup. They will be involved down to the last week. The gap between the Cardinals and Cubs got big all of a sudden but consider that the Cardinals were playing Pittsburgh and Cincinnati while the Cubs were playing at Colorado and were home to Philadelphia. The Cardinals are 1-8 themselves against those two teams.

DERRICK GOOLD:
Yes, though it’s tempting. The Cardinals are playing well enough to pull away. The Cubs have spent most of the season straggling behind in the division race, struggling with injuries and playing below their potential. They have shown in the past that they can go where Aramis Ramirez takes them, and if he comes back, healthy and productive, it will be a needed jolt for the Cubs. It could be good enough to get them back on track and with a dash or two of healthy pitching they could go on a run. But Ramirez is a question mark. The Cardinals know the pitfalls of a third baseman coming back from a shoulder injury all too well.

GERRY FRALEY:
The Cubs are finished, as is the National League Central race. The Cubs have been a mis-matched team all season. Even if they were playing well, the Cubs would have difficulty catching the first-place Cardinals. The teams have only three games remaining, at Busch Stadium on Sept. 18-20. The Cubs also face a brutal schedule that includes two more trips to California and 50 games in a 52-day stretch through Sept. 27.
The Cubs are done.

JEFF GORDON:
Since Ramirez’s shoulder troubles aren’t likely to disappear this season, the Cubs are headed in the wrong direction. They lack a reliable closer. The Milton Bradley Experiment still looks like a failure. With the ownership of the franchise in limbo, the team hasn’t been able to make major roster upgrades. Manager Lou Piniella seems exasperated by the group and its collective bad luck. If the Cubs don’t snap out of their funk immediately, the Cards playing a favorable schedule, could quickly build a substantial lead. So I don’t think it is too soon to dismiss the Small Bears.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: Even with all the offensive firepower the Cardinals have added recently, which team do you see as the biggest threat to St. Louis for the NL Central crown and why?

RICK HUMMEL
The Cubs are the only real threat. They were supposed to be the best team in the division and they still well may be the best, IF lefthander Ted Lilly, their most effective pitcher this season, doesn’t miss too much time with knee and shoulder miseries.

DERRICK GOOLD
The Cubs. There is a reason why the Cubs have one of the highest payrolls in the majors — they have a lot of talent and they, arguably, have the best lineup and most imposing rotation … when … healthy. And that’s the key. The Cubs have been hanging around, hanging around, hanging around and hanging around and the longer they hang around the more time they have to get their Wrigley together, ditch the chaos and injuries from earlier this season and play like they’re capable. Their Central foes had their chance to pull away from the Cubs. And they didn’t.

JEFF GORDON
Until Roy Oswalt went down, I liked the Astros. That team has been on a prolonged upturn. The ’Stros can really beat up opponents in its bandbox stadium. But they have to have their ace. If Oswalt misses significant time with his back strain, that makes the Cubs the biggest threat — even without Ted Lilly. Neither team seems likely to make a major move at the trade deadline, though, so both teams could lose some steam.

GERRY FRALEY
The Chicago Cubs have the best talent in the NL Central. The most telling sign of that is the Cubs have not been buried despite nearly four months of slipshod play. The Cubs win despite themselves because they can out-talent most teams.

The Central will be a two-month drag race between the Cardinals and the Cubs. How soon ailing lefthander Ted Lilly returns to the Cubs’ rotation will be a significant factor. It is possible the rivalry will carry over into October. The clubs could push each other so hard that both will get into the playoffs, with the runnerup as the wild-card entrant.

LUKE THOMPSON
Even without their recent hot streak, the Cubs would seem to be the team with the best chance to challenge the Cardinals in the final two months. Lou Piniella’s team was decimated by injuries in the first half of the season, and now Aramis Ramirez is back, as is Milton Bradley, who is finally starting to hit. Of course, injury issues continue to cause problems, most notably with All-Star Ted Lilly. But the Cubs have always been the best team in the Central on paper, and that is probably still true even with the Cardinals’ new additions. It’s quite possible their one remaining series on September 18-20 in St. Louis could have large title implications.

KEVIN WHEELER (Host of “Sports Open Line” on KMOX)
The Cubs. They’ve had key players underperforming all season long, they’ve had injuries and a half dozen on-field temper tantrums that have almost cost them a Gatorade machine. Just about everything that could go wrong has gone wrong — at least until recently — and yet they’re right there in the race.

The Cards have had plenty of bad breaks themselves, make no mistake about that. They and the Cubs are actually quite similar when you think about it. Neither team has played as well as it can play and now the Cardinals have some significant new pieces to play with. I also say the Cubs are the biggest threat to the Cards because I don’t think the Astros or the Brewers are all that hot. They’ll fade while the Cards and Cubs continue to sprint toward the finish.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: The Cardinals have started the season 7-3 against Pittsburgh, Houston and Arizona. It’s always better to win than to lose. However, what happens when they arrive in Chicago today for a four-game set against their first real major-league opponent?

JOE STRAUSS
Wow, we’re already trivializing playing .700 ball over the opening 10 games. Wonder if that’s the attitude in Chicago, Atlanta, Florida or Southern California, where other NL teams have gotten off to solid starts?

This weekend’s intrigue will surround P.J. Walters’ Friday start and a Carp-less rotation’s ability to consume innings. The right side of this bullpen has yet to fully take shape. Now Mitchell Boggs and Chris Perez are inserted with roles fluctuating almost daily. The more the pen gets stretched out, the more its frailties are exposed.

We now get to see how the Cardinals’ rotation matches up against the Cubs. Adam Wainwright’s start this afternoon is pivotal, not only from a win-loss angle, but also from protecting the pen. If he fails to make six innings for a third consecutive start, this weekend could get ugly. If Wainwright is Wainwright, the Cardinals will then take their chances behind Lohse Saturday and Wellemeyer Sunday on extra rest. The Cardinals can claim victory with a split.

RICK HUMMEL
It’s not so much these four games that will have that much definition for the Cardinals as it the 10-game stretch they have against Chicago (seven) and New York, which I consider to be the best teams in the National League. A showing of 5-5 or better for the Cardinals in those 10 games would generate even more enthusiasm. If they go 2-8 or 3-7, then there’s work to be done.

BRYAN BURWELL
The simple answer is, that’s why they play the game. Let’s find out quickly where the Cards stack up with Chicago. The quicker we see how wide or narrow the gap is between the Cubbies and Cards, the sooner GM John Mozeliak can see if he has properly constructed a team that can go head to head with the division favorite.

JEFF GORDON
The Cards caught Houston and Arizona at the right time for sure. But their hitting is real and they still have four starting pitchers throwing well, despite Chris Carpenter’s loss. This team is still a work in progress, due to the bullpen turmoil and lineup shuffling, but you can see the potential. We’re learn a lot more about the Cards — good or bad — when they face a powerful offensive team in hostile conditions. They have the firepower to win a couple of games while they are still sorting things out.

GERRY FRALEY
The Cardinals have only one favorable matchup in the four-game series: Adam Wainwright against Sean Marshall, who has pitched only one inning with the Cubs this season, in today’s opener.

Rookie P.J. Walters will step into the rotation on Friday against Cubs ace Carlos Zambrano. He was 1-2 with a 12.75 ERA against the Cardinals last season, but this is still a favorable matchup for the Cubs. The Cubs also have an advantage with Ted Lilly against Todd Wellemeyer on Sunday night.

That makes Saturday the swing game of the series. The Cardinals will start Kyle Lohse against Ryan Dempster. Lohse was 0-1 with a 6.38 ERA against the Cubs last season, but he has had two good starts this season. Dempster, the magician, is 14-3 with a 2.86 ERA for his last 20 starts at Wrigley Field.

If the Cardinals win on Saturday, they can leave Chicago with a split. If the Cubs win on Saturday, they should win the series.