THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: The Cardinals have two legitimate Cy Young Award candidates in Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter. Assuming at the end of the season the stats stacked up pretty much as they do today, could Wainwright or Carpenter actually win the award or would the two more likely cancel out each other’s votes? Or, would San Francisco’s Tim Lincecum be the clear-cut winner regardless of the two Redbirds’ performances?

A look at how the three match up today in numbers and league rankings (keeping in mind Carp has pitched approximately 40 less innings than the other two):

Chris Carpenter
130.2 inning pitched
Wins: 12 (4th)
ERA: 2.27 (2nd)
Strikeouts: 97 (33rd)

Adam Wainwright
172 innings pitched
Wins: 14 (1st)
ERA: 2.62 (5th)
Strikeouts: 149 (5th)

Tim Lincecum
172.1 innings pitched
Wins: 12 (4th)
ERA: 2.19 (1st)
Strikeouts: 205 (1st)

JOE STRAUSS
There would need to be serious slippage by Lincecum for Carp’ to overtake him, given that Lincecum has amassed his percentages in significantly more starts. Lincecum also has a chance for 270-280 strikeouts, a powerful number. The Giants are not a robust offensive team, and a drag on Lincecum’s win total could create opportunity for Wainwright and Carpenter. Wainwright is in a stronger position because of his durability. He has an outstanding shot at 20 wins. A sub-2.50 ERA, the league lead in wins and innings pitched and a strong September within a pennant race would be compelling. It wouldn’t hurt to mention Dan Haren and Josh Johnson in the discussion as well, along with Matt Cain.

DERRICK GOOLD
Tim Lincecum is the clear-cut leader right now despite impressive candidacies from the Cardinals’ tandem aces. Forget that Lincecum is the incumbent and is arguably pitching better this season than when he won the Cy Young Award last season. The San Francisco Freak leads the league with a 2.19 ERA, he’s within striking distance of the lead in victories, and no one is close to his league-best 205 strikeouts. Those are just the most obvious stats. If things continue at their current pace, Lincecum and Adam Wainwright will jockey for the league lead in innings pitched, and that may be what keeps Chris Carpenter — whose other numbers are equally as dominant as the other two — from elbowing into the top spot on the Cy Young ballot. KTRS/550 AM’s John Marecek had a great stat the other day: Only twice has a starting pitcher thrown fewer than 200 innings and won the Cy Young. Rick Sutcliffe, who was traded during his Cy Young season, and Fernando Valenzuela, who won in a strike-shortened year of 1981. Carpenter is pitching uphill.

RICK HUMMEL
Lincecum wins again as long as he leads in ERA and in strikeouts (he is sure to win that title.) If Wainwright got to 20 wins, he would be a factor. Carpenter missed some six weeks and can’t be considered as strong a candidate because of that fact.

JEFF GORDON
Lincecum’s strikeout total — and Ks per 9 IP — puts him in his own world right now. The kid is dominating. Now, if he falters and Carpenter keeps winning games, the equation changes. Wainwright ranks among the strikeout leaders, but he is way short of Lincecum. Also, Lincecum has the hair thing going for him.

KEVIN WHEELER (Host of “Sports Open Line” on KMOX)
I don’t think there would be a clear cut winner from those three at the moment, and I’d have to throw in Josh Johnson (12-2, 2.85, 140 K) of the Marlins and Matt Cain (12-4, 2.49, 126 K) as well. They’re right there with the other three in every way possible.

In terms of won-loss record, ERA and base runners allowed per 9 innings, these five are almost indistinguishable from one another. In cases like this, I like to see who has been the most “dominant” by looking at strikeouts and opponent batting averages. Lincecum strikes out 10.71 batters per 9 innings and nobody else in this group is even close — Johnson is 2nd best at 7.81 K/9. Lincecum also owns the lowest opponent batting average in the group at .211 and again Johnson is 2nd best at .224.

In what I perceive as a 5-way tie with a month and a half to go, the tiebreakers go to Lincecum.

THE WATERCOOLER:
Kyle Lohse pitches tonight against the Reds and Todd Wellemeyer on Tuesday. Neither has had the same numbers as last season. Which pitcher’s return to form is more important for the Cardinals?

JOE STRAUSS:
Either would be nice. Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright are arguably right there with the Giants’ Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as the NL’s most productive 1-2. Joel Pineiro enjoys a Top 15 ERA without the deserved W-L. The need for a fifth starter only eight times the remainder of the season would suggest it’s more important that Lohse find his bearings. TLR suggested Wednesday in New York that Lohse is improving physically but is not 100 percent since his 39-day stay on the disabled list due to a forearm strain. Wellemeyer appears to be on probation and must find something positive from Tuesday’s start. Is it a problem? Sure. However, the Chicago Cubs currently miss Carlos Zambrano and Ted Lilly from their rotation. The Cardinals could get by a with a 3-man turn if they reach the Division Series and could squeeze 6 starts from three arms in a 7-game NLCS. Talk show angst aside, many would take the Cardinals’ problems right now.

BERNIE MIKLASZ:
Lohse. The 5th starter won’t get as many turns as the 4th starter the rest of the way. It’s important for the Cardinals to get Lohse back in 2008 form, because if he does they can line up a row of four quality starters. And few teams come close to that. Nudging this ahead into the future, if the Cardinals make the playoffs the fourth starter will get some assignments. Another reason why Lohse must get rolling.

RICK HUMMEL:
Lohse’s performance is more important because that spot in the rotation will get two or three more starts then Wellemeyer’s. And Wellemeyer could go to the bullpen, which Lohse really hasn’t done on any regular basis.

DERRICK GOOLD:
Kyle Lohse. Hands down. The Cardinals plan to limit the need for a fifth starter as much as possible, and that immediately reduces the impact Todd Wellemeyer could have on the remainder of the season. Lohse will start every five days and must provide the kind of quality starts that could determine whether a series is won, split or swept. Lohse’s ability to reconnect with his 2008 self has gained increased importance with Joel Pineiro’s road-trip troubles. Lohse has been billed as the team’s No. 3 starter, and the Cardinals are going to need him to pitch up to his billing to stay ahead and pull away from the Cubs.

JEFF GORDON:
Lohse is more important. This team needs four strong starting pitchers to have a real shot in postseason play. This team needs to get Lohse back to where he was last season — when he was the No. 1 starter for much of the campaign. A year ago, he could win some tough match-ups. Based on that, he should be the No. 3 starter behind Carpenter and Wainwright this season.

The fifth starter is the fifth starter. The Cards are 5-0 when Boggs pitches, so, despite La Russa’s protestations, the team could always revisit that in a pinch. Getting Lohse back to normal has to be the bigger priority. Come playoff time, the fifth starter might not even make the active 25-man roster for any of the series.