THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: Assuming the Cardinals make it to the postseason, which National League team do you feel offers the greatest matchup problems for the Redbirds?

BERNIE MIKLASZ
The Phillies. They lead the league in runs, homers and slugging. They’re the best slugging team in the NL against righthanded pitchers, and the Cardinals have a RH rotation. The Phillies’ rotation was upgraded substantially with the addition of Cliff Lee and this is the one playoff-bound NL team that can match up reasonably well with rhe Cardinals’ big three of Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright and Joel Pineiro. For some reason, Carpenter hasn’t pitched well in Philly; he has a 6.75 ERA in three career starts at Citizens Bank Park. That said, Wainwright was magnificent there in his only start, and Pineiro hasn’t allowed a run there in two starts. The Phillies rake well at Busch Stadium; Ryan Howard and their big hitters like the place. In 17 games in STL the Phillies have averaged 6.9 runs since Busch opened in 2006. The X factor would be Brad Lidge. The Phillies closer is having a horrible season, and if that continues, the Phillies are vulnerable late.

DERRICK GOOLD
The Phillies. The Cardinals may be 10-2 against lefthanded starters since Matt Holliday arrived, but the Phillies still have lefties like Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee and Jamie Moyer who can tie the Cardinals in knots. Joe Blanton is 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA against the Cardinals this season and they have yet to figure him out. He’s 3-0 with a 1.71 ERA and 14 strikeouts in 21 innings against the Cardinals in his career. Ryan Madson, a late-inning reliever, may be the only Albert Pujols specialist in the game. The Cardinals first baseman is 0-for-10 in his career against Madson. He doesn’t strike out against the righthander, but he doesn’t hit him well either. And that’s all without mentioning what may be the most difficult lineup in the National League to contain. The variety of hitters the Phillies throw at opponents — speed in Victorino, balance in Utley, thunder from Howard and power throughout — makes a lineup with few, if any, cracks. Forget how Howard hits like Roy Hobbs in St. Louis, whether he’s taking aim at a Red Lobster in Ballwin or crushing shots at Busch Stadium. Sure Colorado is playing as well as anyone. Yes, the LA Dodgers have Manny and pitching. Fine, the Giants have a fearsome tandem atop their pitching staff. But the defending champs have more. And Brad Lidge.

RICK HUMMEL
The world champion Phillies. They have the lefthanded-hitting firepower to contend with the Cardinals’ all-righthanded rotation. In five games, four of them wins by the Phillies, Philadelphia has outscored the Cardinals, 40-24.

JEFF GORDON
The Phillies come at you with lefthanded power and switch-hitters. They put up some football scores on the Cards earlier this season, although much of that damage came against guys like Todd Wellemeyer, Josh Kinney and Jason Motte. The addition of Cliff Lee gives them a 1-2 punch to match Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright. The only soft spot on that team is Albert’s buddy Brad Lidge. A Phillies-Cards battle in the NLCS would be quite a battle.

GERRY FRALEY
As Ric Flair often said, “to be the man, you’ve got to beat the man.’’ Philadelphia, defending World Series champion, would present the biggest problems for the Cardinals in a post-season series.

LHP Cliff Lee changes the face of what was a mediocre rotation. Since being obtained from Cleveland, Lee is 5-0 with a 0.67 ERA and has allowed more than one run only once.

The Cardinals’ all-RHPs rotation will bring out the best in Phillies 1B Ryan Howard. Howard struggles against lefthanders, but goes into tonight’s play batting .312 with a .692 slugging percentage and 30 homers in 295 at-bats against righthanders.

Of course, this all changes if a Cardinals-Phillies series comes down to Albert Pujols against Philadelphia closer Brad Lidge. A year, with Lidge on top of his game, the Phillies were 79-0 when leading after eight innings. With Lidge having problems stemming from a bum knee, the Phillies are 58-7 when leading after eight innings this season.

THE WATERCOOLER:
Kyle Lohse pitches tonight against the Reds and Todd Wellemeyer on Tuesday. Neither has had the same numbers as last season. Which pitcher’s return to form is more important for the Cardinals?

JOE STRAUSS:
Either would be nice. Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright are arguably right there with the Giants’ Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as the NL’s most productive 1-2. Joel Pineiro enjoys a Top 15 ERA without the deserved W-L. The need for a fifth starter only eight times the remainder of the season would suggest it’s more important that Lohse find his bearings. TLR suggested Wednesday in New York that Lohse is improving physically but is not 100 percent since his 39-day stay on the disabled list due to a forearm strain. Wellemeyer appears to be on probation and must find something positive from Tuesday’s start. Is it a problem? Sure. However, the Chicago Cubs currently miss Carlos Zambrano and Ted Lilly from their rotation. The Cardinals could get by a with a 3-man turn if they reach the Division Series and could squeeze 6 starts from three arms in a 7-game NLCS. Talk show angst aside, many would take the Cardinals’ problems right now.

BERNIE MIKLASZ:
Lohse. The 5th starter won’t get as many turns as the 4th starter the rest of the way. It’s important for the Cardinals to get Lohse back in 2008 form, because if he does they can line up a row of four quality starters. And few teams come close to that. Nudging this ahead into the future, if the Cardinals make the playoffs the fourth starter will get some assignments. Another reason why Lohse must get rolling.

RICK HUMMEL:
Lohse’s performance is more important because that spot in the rotation will get two or three more starts then Wellemeyer’s. And Wellemeyer could go to the bullpen, which Lohse really hasn’t done on any regular basis.

DERRICK GOOLD:
Kyle Lohse. Hands down. The Cardinals plan to limit the need for a fifth starter as much as possible, and that immediately reduces the impact Todd Wellemeyer could have on the remainder of the season. Lohse will start every five days and must provide the kind of quality starts that could determine whether a series is won, split or swept. Lohse’s ability to reconnect with his 2008 self has gained increased importance with Joel Pineiro’s road-trip troubles. Lohse has been billed as the team’s No. 3 starter, and the Cardinals are going to need him to pitch up to his billing to stay ahead and pull away from the Cubs.

JEFF GORDON:
Lohse is more important. This team needs four strong starting pitchers to have a real shot in postseason play. This team needs to get Lohse back to where he was last season — when he was the No. 1 starter for much of the campaign. A year ago, he could win some tough match-ups. Based on that, he should be the No. 3 starter behind Carpenter and Wainwright this season.

The fifth starter is the fifth starter. The Cards are 5-0 when Boggs pitches, so, despite La Russa’s protestations, the team could always revisit that in a pinch. Getting Lohse back to normal has to be the bigger priority. Come playoff time, the fifth starter might not even make the active 25-man roster for any of the series.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: The Cardinals have many pending free agents, not to mention a clock ticking on Albert Pujols’ current deal. Keeping in mind money will have to be set aside for Albert, how many of the pending free agents do you think this team can realistically re-sign? And how might you prioritize those signings?

RICK HUMMEL
The Cardinals probably can sign as many of the free agents as they want, but they would have to move salary elsewhere, perhaps a Ryan Ludwick, who will be due another big raise as an arbitration-eligible player. The pecking order:
1. Matt Holliday
2. Joel Pineiro
3. Mark DeRosa
4. Trever Miller
5. Rick Ankiel
6. Jason LaRue
7. Todd Wellemeyer

No chance category: Troy Glaus and Khalil Greene

BERNIE MIKLASZ
If they go “all in” on Matt Holliday, that’ll be it. There won’t be enough money (realistically) to deal with Mark DeRosa or Joel Pineiro, unless the players are willing to stay here at a steep discount. I’m wondering if the Cardinals will regret the contract they gave Kyle Lohse after last season.

DERRICK GOOLD
How many they sign depends mostly on who they sign. The priority has to be re-signing Matt Holliday. The Cardinals gave up a lot to get him, and they did so with the intention of keeping him beyond this season as the long-term heavy to hit behind Albert Pujols. A successful pursuit of Holliday will not only limit who else the Cardinals can go out and sign — or go out and keep — but also how they then approach Pujols about an extension. Holliday will limit the budget for other signings and help set the internal market for Pujols’ next deal. Signing both Holliday and Mark DeRosa isn’t unreasonable, and it may be necessary for the Cardinals to bring back DeRosa as an option at third base and second base. After that, the Cardinals usually move quickly to sign their backup catcher (Jason LaRue has done nothing to change his status) and will need to find a lefty specialist (will Trever Miller return?). The rest, including Joel Pineiro, are on the backburner or not in the conversation either because of the price tag, need or 2009 performance.

JEFF GORDON
Having Julio Lugo for free next season helps the budget. Also, David Freese appears back on track to replace Troy Glaus at third base. That helps as well. I would try to extend Mark DeRosa ASAP for a moderate raise over his current deal. He is a classic Cardinal. Surely he wants to stay, right? If the Cards have DeRosa in hand, preferably before the end of the season, that allows the team to remain patient on the Matt Holliday front. The team will be assured of having a solid offense next year. If Holliday wants to stay, the Cards could give him a nice contract, turn the page on Ankiel and Pineiro and lean on younger starting pitching. If Holliday decides to explore the market and chase the top dollar, then the Cards could spend money on Ankiel, Pineiro and/or other pitching and hitting. This could go a lot of ways, but I would lock in DeRosa early to simplify the equation.

KEVIN WHEELER (Host of “Sports Open Line” on KMOX)
They should be able to sign the two or three they really need in addition to leaving room for Albert’s contract down the road without too much difficulty. The three I’d recommend focusing on are Matt Holliday, Joel Pineiro and Mark DeRosa, in that order. Holliday is the presence you need behind Albert. Pineiro has become a reliable starter and they have no apparent in-house replacement for him. DeRosa is an incredibly valuable, versatile player with leadership ability and a solid bat. As long as their demands — in terms of dollars and years — aren’t totally out of whack the team should be able to afford them and leave room for Albert’s new deal here in a couple of years. Minus their current obligations on Adam Kennedy, Troy Glaus, Khalil Greene and Todd Wellemeyer, the Cardinals save $27 million and that should give them some wiggle room to work with.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: Joel Pineiro will take the mound vs. the Mets tomorrow night sporting a 2.84 ERA on the season. Pineiro has far exceeded expectations this season with a renewed emphasis on the sinker. As he will hit free agency at the end of this season, and given the many other Cardinals players also reaching free agency, what do you think the chances are that the team will be able to lock up Pineiro to a new contract?

JOE STRAUSS
The Cardinals gave Kyle Lohse $41 million over four years last September. Based on numbers other than win percentage, Pineiro is enjoying a better season. It’s hard to imagine Pineiro taking a significant lower Annual Average Value than Lohse, who did agree to backload his deal. A baseline of 3 years/$27 million may be discussed. Length of contract may be more an obstacle than AAV. It’s a matter of priorities, which underscores the organization’s need to read the Matt Holliday situation. If Holliday is extended, the club may have to scrimp on starting pitcher or delay talks of an extension with Albert Pujols. It already appears a mortal lock that next year’s No. 5 starter will come from within the organization (Garcia, Walter, Boggs, Hawksworth, McClellan). Look for any deal(s) to be weighted heavily after 2011, when several deals now on the books expire.

RICK HUMMEL
They’ll have a much better chance if they lock him in as they did Kyle Lohse last year, i.e. before he goes out on the open market. Believe it or not, Pineiro, because of his outstanding control and ability to keep the ball in the ball park, will be one of the most sought-after pitching free agents.

DERRICK GOOLD
Today, those chances seem minimal. Joel Pineiro has the look of a pitcher who will follow Jeff Suppan, Jason Marquis, heck, even Jeff Weaver, and so many other reanimated pitchers on the path out of town. His reinvention as a sinkerball pitcher has been well-timed and mutually beneficial — the Cardinals are getting his performance in a division-title race and he’ll get the benefit of recasting his career in a contract year. The one catch is this: Are the Cardinals convinced they have a pitcher ready to move into that spot? Are they willing to turn two spots in the rotation over to a competition of Todd Wellemeyer and minor leaguers like P.J. Walters, Blake Hawksworth, Mitchell Boggs, etc.? If Pineiro is gone — and most likely he is — the Cardinals better be content with who’s coming up or be willing to pay to replace him.

BERNIE MIKLASZ
If the Cardinals act early, it will improve their chances. Pineiro has reinvented himself this year; his ground-ball rate of 73.3 is the best in the majors to this point. I think Pineiro is smart enough to realize he has a great pitching coach and a terrific situation here. That said, we’ve seen jumpy MLB teams give insane contracts to pitchers, so if Pineiro hits the open market, he could be very attractive to some bigger-market teams that need a 4th or 5th starter.

GERRY FRALEY
Pineiro’s agent, Adam Katz, is a realist, and that bodes well for the Cardinals.

The coming free-agent market could be flush with top starting pitchers. Righthanders Josh Beckett, Rich Harden and John Lackey and lefthanders Cliff Lee and Jarrod Washburn could all be available this fall.

Pineiro has pitched well this season, but he still runs the risk of being squeezed on the free-agent market and forced to take a leftover of an offer. If the Cardinals make a fair offer, Pineiro and Katz would be wise to take the sure thing.

The alternative is to become the next Jeff Weaver. He has had a rocky ride since his standout performance for the Cardinals in their 2006 run to the World Series title. Weaver jumped to Seattle in 2007, and did not make it through the season. He spent all of last season and part of this year in the minors before making it back with the Los Angeles Dodgers as a long reliever-spot starter.

KEVIN WHEELER (Host of “Sports Open Line” on KMOX)
I’d call it 60-40 in favor of Pineiro being kept around. Both he and Wellemeyer are up after the season and the Cards don’t appear to have two Major League ready kids to take those spots heading into 2010, nor does it seem likely that Welly is brought back. In that case you almost have to re-sign Pineiro unless his demands are outrageous.

Not counting the contracts of Matt Holliday and Mark DeRosa (because they came in later in the season) the Cards will have roughly $40 million freed up after the season, though that includes Pineiro’s money and the contracts of Rick Ankiel and Ryan Ludwick. Keeping Holliday would knock $15-18 million off that right off the top, leaving $22-25 million for Pineiro, DeRosa, Ludwick and any other potential free agents they’d like to retain (Ankiel, Jason LaRue, Trever Miller, etc.). Things could be tight unless payroll goes back up to the 2008 level next year.

If Pineiro isn’t looking for a Kyle Lohse contract of 4 years and $41 million (which is what I’d be asking for if I were his agent) then his chances of staying will be better. If he is seeking that big deal the Cards will be facing some difficult decisions.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: Given Todd Wellemeyer’s recent run of poor starts, what are the Cardinals’ best options concerning a fifth starter as they move forward?

JOE STRAUSS
The path of least resistence would be to give Wellemeyer Friday’s start against the Houston Astros before re-setting the rotation following Monday’s day off in New York. That said, organizational patience with Wellemeyer’s inconsistency may have been exhausted in his last three outings, including a poor showing in relief against the Cubs before the break.

Blake Hawksworth is in the house. He had been pitching well in Memphis — his last Triple-A start was a 7-inning, 1-hit outing in which he received no decision — and could easily be aligned for Friday’s outing. Brad Thompson also started in place of Kyle Lohse when Lohse was on the DL. PJ Walters struck out 14 in this weekend’s start in New Orleans, but his style of pitching has yet to win backers within the major-league clubhouse. Mitchell Boggs also has improved recently, though his propensity to work in and out of trouble spooks pitching coach Dave Duncan.

GM John Mozeliak remains attuned to the trade market, though finding low-cost help for the rotation (Ian Snell?) is difficult at this time of year.

Something will be done, perhaps as early as this afternoon. But the answer remains elusive.
Barring trade, the best option may be reversing roles between Thompson/Hawksworth and Wellemeyer. Most would agree, however, that represents only a temporary fix.

RICK HUMMEL
For one more start, Friday vs. Houston here, Wellemeyer is the best option. After that, the Cardinals won’t need a fifth starter for about 10 days. Then the landscape might change.

GERRY FRALEY
The fifth-starter situation calls for bargain shopping. The biggest bargain out there may be Arizona lefthander Doug Davis. He is only 5-10 but has a 3.75 ERA for a team that gave up weeks ago. Arizona’s bullpen has three blown saves behind Davis, and the offense has scored two runs or fewer in 11 of his 21 starts. The drawbacks are Davis’ slow pace and high walks rate: 4.5 per nine innings. When it comes to a fifth starter, flaws should be expected.

In this search, the Cardinals will be better served looking outside the organization. The minor-league arms tried so far have been found lacking. A pennant race is no place for an overmatched kid.

BRYAN BURWELL
I think in the very short term the way the schedule sets up, La Russa could resort to a modified four-man rotation. In the long term, the club could resort to bullpen games.

THE WATERCOOLER:
Todd Wellemeyer, the most inconsistent of the Cardinals’ five starters, goes tonight in Houston against the Astros. He has averaged barely 5 innings per start and has lost three of his past five decisions. How important is tonight’s start?

BERNIE MIKLASZ:
Not very. Dave Duncan is obviously committed to Wellemeyer. And Tony La Russa and Duncan obviously have little faith in alternative candidates from the system, pitchers such as Mitchell Boggs, Blake Hawksworth or Clayton Mortensen. Perhaps a test case will surface when (and if) Jaime Garcia is ready to pitch.

BRYAN BURWELL:
Wellemeyer has to know that the leash is getting extremely short at this point, particularly because of the way the schedule is laid out. La Russa could decide to go with a four-man rotation if Wellemeyer produces another clunker and who could blame him.

JOE STRAUSS:
Organizational patience with him appears to be wearing thin. In his next two starts, he needs to show more of the pitcher of last year, and not the lost cause that many have suspected he has become.

RICK HUMMEL:
The way I see it, Todd Wellemeyer has three more starts in which to prove himself, i.e. show he deserves to stay in the rotation. But after the third one of those, July 31 against Houston, the Cardinals have two off days in the next week and they wouldn’t have to use him anyway until about Aug. 12.

DERRICK GOOLD:
The start isn’t as pivotal for Wellemeyer as it is for the Cardinals in this series. I spoke with several people yesterday around the Cardinals and all refuted the idea that Wellemeyer was on game-to-game probation as a member of the rotation. The biggest reason: There isn’t a pitcher pushing to replace him. As manager Tony La Russa said, Wellemeyer knows he’s their best option and is pitching now so that he’s not “vulnerable” when they do have an alternative. That said, Wellemeyer’s start represents the tipping point of this series. Monday was the night the Cardinals had the pitching edge, with Wandy Rodriguez and his home success going tonight for Houston and the duel of aces — Roy Oswalt vs. Chris Carpenter — coming tomorrow. The pitching lined up such that the Cardinals could count on Carpenter to pitch for the series win Wednesday. Instead, a loss Monday means Wellemeyer must perform tonight so that Oswalt isn’t throwing for a series sweep.

JEFF GORDON:
You never get the sense that Tony La Russa and Dave Duncan will never take him out of the rotation. They certainly want no part of starting, say, Blake Hawksworth in that spot. But general manager John Mozeliak has enough chips to acquire a No. 5-type starter and he could force a change. Wellemeyer looked so hopelessly lost his last two times out that another horrid start would force Mozeliak to intensify his trade talks.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: The Cardinals made a long-awaited move this weekend in acquiring Mark DeRosa from the Cleveland Indians. With this team still hovering near the top of the NL Central and with a chance to win the division, do you think they are done dealing, or do you think there is still a chance they make a run at someone like Matt Holliday to fortify this lineup?

JOE STRAUSS
The Cardinals are not done exploring other deals but they may have bought some time. GM John Mozeliak said Sunday he will take the next couple weeks to assess DeRosa’s effect on the club and act accordingly. Five weeks remain until the trade deadline. The club may believe its greatest need is a pitcher. Should Troy Glaus go on a rehab within the next couple weeks, there will be additional willingness to wait. The benefit of acquiring DeRosa now is first his production, but also assessing where he fits best on the club. He appears slotted as the everyday third baseman with Khalil Greene returning to the DL. But should Glaus progress, DeRosa also becomes an OF option, freeing up chips to acquire a starter or set-up man. Holliday will apparently remain on the market for awhile given Oakland’s heavy asking price.

BERNIE MIKLASZ
Another move is possible, but Matt Holliday is probably too big of a fish to reel in next month. I wouldn’t be surprised if they pursued a starting pitcher to fill Todd Wellemeyer’s spot in the rotation.

DERRICK GOOLD
Adding DeRosa is clearly the move the Cardinals had to make — and make as soon as possible — because it keeps them in contention. It isn’t, however, the only move needed to cinch their intent to contend for a title. What they have done by adding DeRosa is put themselves in position to make a deadline deal with an eye on being better in August, September and then, in a Larry Walker-esque way, October. That includes — but isn’t exclusive to — monitoring the market for Matt Hollliday and seeing if the cost of doing business with Billy Beane drops as the clock ticks toward August 1. Pitching should also be on their radar. DeRosa fills a need. Now the Cardinals can look to augment. The bottom line is the, well, bottom line. Swallowing the remainder of DeRosa’s $5.5 million contract is palatable enough for the Cardinals that they still maintain that “payroll flexibility” to offer any trade-deadline fruit that hangs low enough some dry powder to land in.

GERRY FRALEY
Mark DeRosa batted cleanup on Sunday in his debut with the Cardinals. If that does not say the lineup needs one more bat, nothing does. DeRosa is a solid hitter, but he does not belong in the cleanup spot. He is an ideal No. 6 hitter, maybe with some time in the fifth spot. Given righthander Todd Wellemeyer’s struggles, the Cardinals are going to be in the market for another starter soon, if not already. Wellemeyer is 3-5 with a 6.32 ERA in his last 10 starts and has drained the bullpen by going five innings or fewer in six of his 16 starts overall. That does not fit with a contender.

JEFF GORDON
This team still needs more. If Ryan Ludwick, Rick Ankiel and Chris Duncan continue to struggle with run production, this team won’t have enough offense to make a serious playoff run. Perhaps DeRosa will take some heat off those guys and spur better production. We’re seeing a lot of poor at-bats in critical situations. It’s shocking, really, how badly some of these guys are hitting.

DAN O’NEILL
I would think the Cardinals are done dealing. The Matt Holliday trade never has made sense to me, especially if it includes Ryan Ludwick. Seems to me you’re trading very similar players, trading your only righthanded-hitting outfielder to get a righthanded-hitting outfielder. I think if the Cardinals get Lohse back, they are set with their club for a while, if not for the duration.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: The Cardinals obviously have been scuffling a bit of late. What do you think Chris Carpenter’s return this week means to the team, both performance-wise and from a psychological-boost perspective?

BERNIE MIKLASZ
Carpenter is their leader. These guys look up to him. He sets an ideal example with his professionalism, demeanor and competitiveness. So having him back will undoubtedly be a plus. It will be reassuring. But let’s not get carried away here. Carpenter has made only seven starts and pitched 31.1 innings since the Cardinals won the 2006 World Series. The other four members in the rotation — Adam Wainwright, Kyle Lohse, Todd Wellemeyer and Joel Pineiro — have made 206 starts since then. They’re experienced. They’ve been around. They can pitch well with or without Carpenter in the rotation. And collectively speaking, the starters haven’t done a good job for the last 19 games or so, but that’s on them. The Carpenter injury shouldn’t be used as a crutch.

DERRICK GOOLD
There haven’t been too many gray areas with Chris Carpenter. He’s either been good or he’s been on the DL. A good Carpenter will perform an essential service for the Cardinals — give them a third pitcher who, at the least, can be a guaranteed quality start. The offense has recently spiraled, but don’t forget it was the starting rotation that went south first. Carpenter and the seven innings he can provide every five days instantly elevates an entire rotation, and will have a ripple effect on the relievers, who won’t have to stretch to cover those spare or ugly innings. That’s a lot easier to measure than the “psychological boost” of Carpenter’s return. But perhaps manager Tony La Russa’s giddiness concerning Carpenter is a tell. He points out there haven’t been too many gray areas for the Cardinals when they have Carpenter. They contend with him. They fall short without him.

JEFF GORDON
Carpenter would take a lot of pressure off Adam Wainwright — who is trying to relocate his mechanics. His last start was most encouraging. If the Cards can get their top two guys going, that would have a big trickle down. Carpenter could be the “stopper,” the pitcher who stops slumps. And the Cards are in a big one now.

GERRY FRALEY (Baseball writer for FOXsports.com, Sportingnews.com and USAToday)
To keep the bullpen from being used up by the All-Star break, the rotation needs someone to go deep into games. It is asking too much of Carpenter to expect him to do that immediately. His presence as a true No. 1 starter will help the club’s confidence level, but innings are more important now.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: The Cardinals have started the season 7-3 against Pittsburgh, Houston and Arizona. It’s always better to win than to lose. However, what happens when they arrive in Chicago today for a four-game set against their first real major-league opponent?

JOE STRAUSS
Wow, we’re already trivializing playing .700 ball over the opening 10 games. Wonder if that’s the attitude in Chicago, Atlanta, Florida or Southern California, where other NL teams have gotten off to solid starts?

This weekend’s intrigue will surround P.J. Walters’ Friday start and a Carp-less rotation’s ability to consume innings. The right side of this bullpen has yet to fully take shape. Now Mitchell Boggs and Chris Perez are inserted with roles fluctuating almost daily. The more the pen gets stretched out, the more its frailties are exposed.

We now get to see how the Cardinals’ rotation matches up against the Cubs. Adam Wainwright’s start this afternoon is pivotal, not only from a win-loss angle, but also from protecting the pen. If he fails to make six innings for a third consecutive start, this weekend could get ugly. If Wainwright is Wainwright, the Cardinals will then take their chances behind Lohse Saturday and Wellemeyer Sunday on extra rest. The Cardinals can claim victory with a split.

RICK HUMMEL
It’s not so much these four games that will have that much definition for the Cardinals as it the 10-game stretch they have against Chicago (seven) and New York, which I consider to be the best teams in the National League. A showing of 5-5 or better for the Cardinals in those 10 games would generate even more enthusiasm. If they go 2-8 or 3-7, then there’s work to be done.

BRYAN BURWELL
The simple answer is, that’s why they play the game. Let’s find out quickly where the Cards stack up with Chicago. The quicker we see how wide or narrow the gap is between the Cubbies and Cards, the sooner GM John Mozeliak can see if he has properly constructed a team that can go head to head with the division favorite.

JEFF GORDON
The Cards caught Houston and Arizona at the right time for sure. But their hitting is real and they still have four starting pitchers throwing well, despite Chris Carpenter’s loss. This team is still a work in progress, due to the bullpen turmoil and lineup shuffling, but you can see the potential. We’re learn a lot more about the Cards — good or bad — when they face a powerful offensive team in hostile conditions. They have the firepower to win a couple of games while they are still sorting things out.

GERRY FRALEY
The Cardinals have only one favorable matchup in the four-game series: Adam Wainwright against Sean Marshall, who has pitched only one inning with the Cubs this season, in today’s opener.

Rookie P.J. Walters will step into the rotation on Friday against Cubs ace Carlos Zambrano. He was 1-2 with a 12.75 ERA against the Cardinals last season, but this is still a favorable matchup for the Cubs. The Cubs also have an advantage with Ted Lilly against Todd Wellemeyer on Sunday night.

That makes Saturday the swing game of the series. The Cardinals will start Kyle Lohse against Ryan Dempster. Lohse was 0-1 with a 6.38 ERA against the Cubs last season, but he has had two good starts this season. Dempster, the magician, is 14-3 with a 2.86 ERA for his last 20 starts at Wrigley Field.

If the Cardinals win on Saturday, they can leave Chicago with a split. If the Cubs win on Saturday, they should win the series.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: Assuming Chris Carpenter is healthy to start the season, how would you compare the Cardinals rotation of Adam Wainwright, Kyle Lohse, Todd Wellemeyer, Carp and Joel Pineiro against the other rotations in the National League Central?

JOE STRAUSS
IF Carpenter remains healthy I believe the Cardinals’ rotation better than the Astros, Brewers, Pirates and Reds and very comparable to the Cubs. To project Wellemeyer as a No. 4 speaks well of the rotation’s depth. Having a guy capable of throwing 190-plus innings with a 3.71 ERA as your fourth starter is impressive. (I know Carpenter is pitching the fourth game, but no one confuses him with the fourth starter if he’s healthy.) Adam Wainwright will one day challenge for a Cy Young. The question is whether that day arrives this summer.

The Cubs’ Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly, Ryan Dempster, Rich Harden and Sean Marshall are best on paper. But Big Z is a health question, as is Harden. Marshall is a swing guy yet to pitch an entire major-league season. The Reds could potentially be interesting if Aaron Harang reverts to his ’06-’07 form. Bronson Arroyo is inconsistent but at times very effective. There are young arms there (Johnny Cueto, Edison Volquez) that make them a huge variable.

If Carpenter is healthy, it’s hard to envision many series in which the Cardinals do not enjoy at least two favorable match-ups within a three-game series. Health will be a huge variable on this club since there is no obvious No. 6 starter looming.

BERNIE MIKLASZ
It all comes down to the viability of Chris Carpenter. Last season, with Carpenter and Adam Wainwright combining to make only 23 starts, the St. Louis rotation still ranked a healthy sixth in the National League in starting-pitcher ERA. That was also third-best in the NL Central, behind the Cubs and Brewers. The Brewers obviously sustained heavy offseason losses (CC Sabathia, Ben Sheets) and will have a less dependable rotation. If Carpenter holds up, the Cardinals will have the division’s No. 2 rotation. No. 1 still goes to the Cubs, who remain loaded with Zambrano, Dempster, Lilly and Harden. Watch out for Cincinnati. There’s a lot of potential there in Harang, Volquez, Arroyo, Cueto, Micah Owings and possibly Homer Bailey.

DERRICK GOOLD
If you assume health for the Cardinals rotation, don’t you also have to assume health for every other rotation in the NL Central? If that’s the case, then the Cubs have the better rotation, and the Cardinals have the second-best, with Cincinnati an intriguing third. But really the division is defined by who has the bigger assumption of health with its rotation. Call it each team’s Pitching Injury Quotient, or Pitching IQ. The Cardinals have less of a Pitching IQ than the Cubs, because they are banking on one arm staying healthy. And that’s what really puts the Cardinals rotation ahead of the Cubs — they have a lower assumption of health.

RICK HUMMEL
If Carpenter remains healthy, the Cardinals’ rotation is the equal of any in the National League. Ideally, it would be good if they had one lefthanded starter, something they really haven’t had since Mulder was relatively healthy here.

JEFF GORDON
Had the Cardinals bucked up to add a solid left-handed starting pitcher during the off-season, they could have built one of the best rotations in baseball — period. As it is, they will have two Cy Young candidates at the top of the rotation (assuming good health) and a very solid No. 3 starter in Lohse. That should keep the team out of prolonged slumps, barring injuries. Wellemeyer is OK as the No. 4 guy; he fits the mold of earlier Dave Duncan successes like Dustin Hermanson and Todd Stottlemyre. Pineiro could be a decent fifth guy, based on what he’s shown during spring training. But what really makes this group is the depth behind the top five. The Cards should have five solid starting/long relief prospects in the Memphis rotation, plus two decent swing men (Brad Thompson and Kyle McClellan) with the big league team. Overall, the group has come a ways since the unhappy Mike Maroth Era.