THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: Yadier Molina led Atlanta’s Brian McCann by almost 400,000 votes at the catcher position when the latest N.L. All-Star voting results were released Monday. With two days to go in fan voting, it would appear Molina almost has this one locked up. McCann, while playing almost 50 less games, leads Molina in HRs and RBIs, plus he has a higher batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. Do you think the case could be made that McCann deserves the start in this All-Star Game, or does Molina’s defense outweigh his offensive inferiority to McCann?

JOE STRAUSS
McCann is unquestionably the stronger offensive player and Molina the better defender. McCann may also be on the team as a backup. There is something to be said about a player’s availability when considerations are made for the All-Star Game or postseason awards. Yadier’s brother, Bengie, is a superior offensive player as well and has been available to the Giants for the entire first half. Indeed, the question should be whether Yadi is more deserving than his older brother, who doubles as the Giants’ cleanup hitter and is the only NL catcher with more at-bats than the Cardinals’ Gold Glover. Bengie has twice as many home runs and 75 percent more RBI than his younger brother. It would be a compelling story for both Molinas to make the game. Their family has endured significant loss since last season, including their father. I’d have little problem with either guy starting. After being bruised by Michael Cuddyer’s hard slide last weekend, Yadi might be better served by making a cameo appearance in the July 14 game, no matter how much it “counts.”

DERRICK GOOLD
It’s not a difficult case to make at all. Start with this: Brian McCann may be the best all-around catcher in the National League. McCann has seven fewer hits than Yadier Molina in 45 fewer at-bats. He has more RBIs, more home runs and an on-base percentage that is significantly better. All that’s missing is playing time. He missed time with blurred vision earlier this season and that’s allowed other catcher’s to surpass him in the offensive categories that are usually his, and often his alone. Molina has the certain edge in hometown favor and defense, but defense isn’t the dent in McCann’s resume that it is for other catchers. He’s got the profile and the substance of an All-Star catcher. But as you look at the numbers and consider both candidates mentioned in the question, another answer emerges: Neither. My eye for the All-Star drifts west, to another NL catcher named Molina …

JEFF GORDON
Molina’s defense is so exceptional that, yes, he has earned the starting nod. He is the rare shutdown catcher. Nobody is picking runners off first base like this guy. Few catchers are as adept at getting the lead runners on sacrifice bunt attempts. And he controls the running game, too. And his offense is good enough to boost his All-Star credentials.

RICK HUMMEL
Sure, you could make the case that McCann should start, but Molina’s defense has been good and his average has been decent, albeit his modest run production. I have no problem with any player of quality being able to start an All-Star Game in the city in which he plays.

KEVIN WHEELER (Host of “Sports Open Line” on KMOX)
Sure, the case could be made for McCann over Molina, but it would be wrong. Catcher is the most important position on the field and a catcher’s defense must take a higher priority than his offense because of the nature of the position. The catcher is in on every single pitch of every single game he plays and while that is also true of pitchers, the guys out on the mound only have to “handle” themselves. The catcher has to handle the whole pitching staff.

Yadi is the best defensive catcher in the game and far too often defense is ignored in the MLB All-Star Game. It’s nice to see players recognized for the “other half” of the game — you know, the half where teams try to prevent runs from scoring.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: Cardinals catcher Yadier Molina leads the N.L. All-Star voting at his position. Molina’s defensive prowess has long been known, but what are your thoughts on the plate discipline and production Molina is showing in his at-bats this season?

JOE STRAUSS
Molina is much improved as a hitter over three years ago. But with the exception of a recent 7-game hitting streak, his numbers have lagged since a scalding April (.333, 12 RBI). Molina is an above-average contact hitter but his plate discipline does not translate into walks. Relative to NL catchers, he is a “plus” offensive player. Only 2 NL catchers have scored more than 25 runs, only five have more than 5 home runs and only three have more than 25 RBI. Molina owns 6 extra-base hits and 11 RBI in his 150 at-bats since April, numbers that did not make him a good fit for a recent bump to No. 4 in the order. Many believe Molina could evolve into more of a power threat. However, Molina also carries a heavy load defensively, rarely sitting when healthy. One wonders how that wears on his bat.

DERRICK GOOLD
Molina is a pure contact hitter and that means he gets all the benefits … and drawbacks … of being able to put the bat on the ball even if it sometimes means throwing the bat at it. As a contact hitter Molina is difficult to strike out but his speed also costs him many hits over the course of the season. Saw that Monday as Molina put a ball in play on the ground only to give the fielder ample time to dive, stop, get into throwing position, complete a sodoku puzzle and throw him out. What will truly determine Molina’s success as a hitter — now that he has settled on a stance — is not his speed or his ability to put the ball in play, but his ability to put the ball in play sharply. Struck doesn’t always mean well struck.

JEFF GORDON
This is just the continuation of his development. It is hard to believe this is the same guy who floundered at the plate and constantly changed his stance earlier in his career. He doesn’t have the power of his brother Bengie, so he wisely uses all the fields. That he has become one of the toughest outs in the lineup is a testament to his work ethic and baseball acumen.

THE WATERCOOLER:

QUESTION: Should Chris Carpenter be the starter for the NL in the All-Star game? Going into tonight’s game, he is 4-0 with a 0.71 ERA in 38 innings (not enough to qualify for the league leaders). Johan Santana of the Mets is 7-3 and 2.00 and San Francisco’s Matt Cain is 7-1, 2.27.

BERNIE MIKLASZ:
Obviously, Carpenter needs to stay healthy and roll up enough starts to qualify as the league’s ERA leader. And he must continue to pitch very well to have a shot because there’s no shortage of excellent starting pitchers in the NL. Because Santana (compared to Carpenter) hasn’t missed a start, you’d have to rate him as the top NL pitcher to this point. Santana has won seven games, but in his three losses he’s given up only three earned runs (total). This is shaping up to be a very competitive field. Do not discount the chances of Dan Haren, Johnny Cueto, Chad Billingsley, Josh Johnson and Yovani Gallardo. Heck, Jason Marquis leads the NL with eight wins. It’s been an exceptional season so far for NL starting pitchers. And even though Carpenter has that miniscule ERA (0.71) he has some catching up to do because he missed time while on the DL.

RICK HUMMEL:
Not off what he’s done _ yet. Carpenter would have to have seven or eight wins by the time the players, coaches and managers conclude their voting for pitchers later this month. Santana and Lincecum are my choices right now.

DERRICK GOOLD:
If looking for an All-Star Game starter tonight - right this moment - I would lean more toward the pitcher Chris Carpenter opposes tonight than picking Chris Carpenter. Florida’s Josh Johnson has had an impressive and All-Star-worthy season so far, and unlike Carpenter he didn’t miss a hunk of time. It’s absence that really hurts Carpenter’s candidacy as the starter for the All-Star Game. The list of pitchers ahead of him for that honor starts with Johan Santana, includes Johnson, and has Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Chad Billingsley near the top, too. Carpenter is pitching like an All-Star, sure, and if he gets that deserved invitation to the game he should be the second pitcher in. That way the hometown crowd gets a hometown battery when Carpenter throws to Yadier Molina.

DAN O’NEILL:
As much as I admire Chris Carpenter as a competitor and talent, there’s no way he should be the starter for the NL in the All-Star Game - unless no one else wants to do it. Often, and rightfully so, All-Star recognition is based, at least in part, on what a player might have done the previous season. Carpenter missed all of last season. Moreover, he has missed quite a bit of the first half of the 2009 season. Coming into Tuesday evening’s start Carpenter had participated in six of the club’s 58 games and 38 of its 527 innings. Granted, they have been All-Star quality contributions. But for me, a player has to be a bit more involved and demonstrate more of a track record than that. It’s basically the same argument as to why Manny Ramirez had no business being considered for the NL Most Valuable Player award last season.

JEFF GORDON:
He has barely pitched for three seasons so, no, he shouldn’t start in the All-Star Game. Albert Pujols will do a fine job as the Cardinals front man for that weekend. Cards fans would love to see him pitch an inning, to honor his persistence on the comeback trail, but that would be plenty. Now, if he keeps winning all season, then we can talk about his Cy Young candidacy. THAT he can win.

GERRY FRALEY:
Sentiment says Randy Johnson should start for the NL. That would recognize his remarkable accomplishment of winning 300 games and also create the possibility of seeing Johnson terrorize a left-handed hitter as he did John Kruk and Larry Walker in previous All-Star appearances. On sheer performance, Santana is the choice. He goes into tonight’s play leading the NL in ERA and has operated with a minute margin of error all season. The Mets have scored three runs or fewer in seven of his 11 starts. Santana’s wins include a pair of 1-0 games and a 2-1 victory. Here’s a vote for having the NL starter work the maximum three innings. Greg Maddux is the last All-Star starter to pitch the maximum three innings, in 1994. The new-face-every-inning approach creates late-game problems that can cause managers to over-extend remaining pitchers.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: NL Central division rival Chicago arrives today for a three-game series, followed by a three-game set against cross-state rival Kansas City. In addition to those two important series, the Cards are anticipating the return Wednesday of Chris Carpenter and Rick Ankiel, which in turn will force some roster moves. It’s shaping up to be an important week. All that said, what do you think will be the most important development for the Cardinals in this homestand?

JOE STRAUSS
As big a deal as Carp’s start is Wednesday, Ankiel’s return on the same day potentially helps the team every day. The offense has fallen into a torpor ever since Ankiel’s loss was compounded by Ryan Ludwick’s hamstring strain. The Cardinals have very few ways to win now short of a solid start. Returning Ankiel to the lineup offers Pujols greater protection, allows TLR to drop Yadier Molina to a more comfortable spot in the order, and at least gives another reason to believe the Cards can score more than once in an inning. Carpenter makes the team better the day and the day after he pitches. During one of his offensive binges, Ankiel can be a daily force. In eight years of covering this club, I can’t recall a more difficult time for a Cardinals lineup than the last week.

RICK HUMMEL
It’s always about Carpenter. It’s not only what he brings with his physical ability, but the emotional lift he would give to a team that is kind of confused right now.

DERRICK GOOLD
The most important long-term development for the Cardinals during this homestand is … and how many times have we written this in the past three seasons? … the healthy return and presence of Chris Carpenter. Film at 11. The damning short-term development for the Cardinals in this homestand is how deep a crippled offense leaves them in the standings. Wins could be scarce against the Cubs and the Royals are improved. The Cardinals entered this homestand in first place in the NL Central. They could leave it with Rick Ankiel in the lineup, Chris Carpenter in the rotation, and a serious drop in the standings.

JEFF GORDON
At this point, the Cards need to win some games and stabilize. Period. How they do that is not important. Just having Carpenter and Ankiel back will give the boost, but a LOT of players are struggling all at once. By winning a few of these games, the Cards could release some of their building frustration and build toward a turnaround. This team can’t get everybody out of their funk at once, but a couple of victories against quality opponents would start the process.

KEVIN WHEELER (Host of “Sports Open Line” on KMOX)
I don’t know if it will be a positive development or not, but what I’m most curious about seeing this week is how Tony La Russa will dish out the playing time at SS and 3B. Joe Strauss’ story (in Tuesday’s Post-Dispatch) about Khalil Greene moving into a reserve role for the time being makes you wonder how it’s all going to play out. Does Tyler Greene emerge as a legit option as the regular shortstop? What about Brendan Ryan? Do we see him more at short, at third or will he be on the pine? Are Brian Barden (.083 in May) and Joe Thurston (.195 in May) going to lose at-bats or will they continue to play regularly?

How things develop at those two positions could determine a lot here in the near future because the other offensive issues will fix themselves, to a degree, once Rick Ankiel and Ryan Ludwick return to the lineup. If you’re not getting much out of 3B and SS, however, you’re looking at a lineup that won’t have a threat in the bottom third. In that scenario you would need Yadier Molina to swing the bat more like he did in April (.333/.402/.500) than what he’s doing in May (.222/.387/.329) — and that’s not a fair expectation. Yadi’s gotten better as a hitter but if you’re counting on consistent run production from him in the middle third of the order things are going to continue to be tough on offense.

A little something on offense from SS and 3B would certainly go a long way.

THE WATERCOOLER

SCENARIO: A major league club opens the season with a pared-down payroll following an offseason in search of “low-hanging fruit” for free agent help. The club’s 99-RBI third baseman from a year ago is still recovering from shoulder surgery. Its former Cy Young-winning pitcher, whom the club said was vital to the success of the rotation this year, is already on the DL again. The team’s defense has committed 19 errors through 20 games. And the club’s manager is shuffling his lineup more than a blackjack dealer to find the right matchups. Through all of this the club finds itself at 14-6 through 20 games and sitting atop the NL Central. That club is the 2009 Cardinals.

QUESTION: Given all these obstacles, and perhaps a few more not mentioned, what do you think is the key to success the Cardinals have had so far this year and is there reason to believe they can sustain a pace anywhere near this?

JOE STRAUSS
Without a doubt the longest question in the history of Round 2. That said, the key to date is the stability of the offensive core, the rotation’s early effectiveness and the bullpen’s solid performance when allowed to pitch in role. (We’ll give the defense a break today.) The take here remains much as it was entering the season: Minus Troy Glaus, the Cardinals will remain solid if their 20 best players remain available. The loss of Chris Carpenter is significant but won’t become magnified unless further attrition occurs. Meanwhile, the Chicago Cubs are experiencing what the Cardinals cannot afford as Aramis Ramirez, Derrek Lee, Milton Bradley and Carlos Marmol are all compromised. So far, this season represents a (near) best-case scenario for the Redbirds.

BERNIE MIKLASZ
This will be my shortest answer ever: Tony La Russa and Dave Duncan. Period. Despite the insane, inexplicable hatred that a faction of bizarre, hopelessly bitter fans have for the manager and pitching coach. Can the Cardinals keep it up? Down to the wire, yes. They’ll be in the hunt in September. And that’s the goal.

DERRICK GOOLD
You mean besides the obvious two-word answer: Albert Pujols? The fuel for the Cardinals’ quick start is offense, offense, offense. Last year’s Cardinals led the league in batting average and were fourth in runs scored, yet this year’s lineup is deeper and has the chance to be better because the production won’t be isolated around the island of Pujols-Ludwick. The Cardinals’ hitting this April has papered-over serious concerns, like the innings the starters are leaving for the work-in-progress bullpen to swallow and the errors that force those same pitchers to pitch around. Even an offense powered by Pujols cannot keep up this current pace. Those flaws will come out.

So the starters have to go deeper into games if the Cardinals are going to remain atop the NL Central, and the defense cannot give away outs to make going deeper into games more difficult. The absence of Chris Carpenter is enough of a challenge for the rotation and bullpen to overcome.

Can the Cardinals keep up this winning percentage? No. Can they slow down and still win the NL Central? It’s bad form to back off preseason predictions (especially three weeks in), so I’ll stick with the answer I gave for the preview section. … Sure. Sure, they can.

RICK HUMMEL
The keys, in no particular order, have been the comeback of Joel Pineiro (4-0), who didn’t win his fourth game until August last year; the emergence of Ryan Franklin from a tangled bullpen as the closer; the insight and, even daring, of manager Tony La Russa to find the right daily combinations in the outfield and at third base; the ability of catcher Yadier Molina and the pitchers to absolutely nullify the opposition’s running game. . . and, of course, Albert Pujols. Nobody else has a player like that and anybody who does will always be a contender. Will the Cardinals play .700 ball? No. Could they win 90 or more games? Yes. Will they? I thought 90 before the season, so I’ll stay with that.

JEFF GORDON
There are three keys to the Cards success:

1) The much-maligned Cards managed investing in pitching, extending Kyle Lohse’s deal a year after doing the same for Joel Pineiro. These two are helping offset Carpenter’s injury. John Mozeliak responded to his bullpen deficiency by buying free agent Dennys Reyes during spring training.

2) The player development is paying off. Colby Rasmus, Brendan Ryan, Jason Motte, Chris Perez and Mitchell Boggs are helping the home-grown Albert Pujols, Yadier Molina, Rick Ankiel, Skip Schumaker, Kyle McClellan and Chris Duncan get the job done.

3) Once again, the team located scrappy, handy utility players in Brian Barden and Joe Thurston.

GERRY FRALEY (National baseball writer for FOXsports.com, Sportingnews.com and USAToday)
Cardinals manager Tony La Russa is blessed with two outstanding coaches in vital positions.

The good work of pitching coach Dave Duncan is well-chronicled. Duncan knows how to get through to distressed pitchers and make them embrace his pitch-to-contact philosophy. This staff will not light up the radar guns, but it will get ground-ball outs.

Batting coach Hal McRae is equally good in his field. He teaches his hitters to use the entire field rather than trying to pull every pitch. A National League scout at last weekend’s series against the Chicago Cubs said McRae’s hitters are unusual in that they can drive the ball to the opposite field. When most hitters use the opposite field, the scout said, they lob the ball for singles. The Cardinals get extra-base hits to the opposite field. They go into tonight’s game leading the National League in average at .296, slugging percentage at .476 and OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage) at .854.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: Chris Carpenter is slated to take the mound for the Cardinals this afternoon. The import of his performance for this Cardinal team has been well chronicled. That said, what do you think is the psychological impact for the players on this Cardinals team to see Carp out on the mound? And what effect does his presence on the mound have on Cardinal opponents?

JOE STRAUSS
It depends on what Carp’ brings to the start. No one within the organization has yet proclaimed his comeback complete. If Carpenter is Carpenter, it’s a huge boost. Everybody has been down this road before. His performance will dictate the degree of lift to his teammates and the level of concern for opponents.

BERNIE MIKLASZ
Seeing Carpenter on the mound for his first start after a healthy and successful spring training will be good for the team’s morale. Not to overstate it, because the Cardinals still have to play the game. There’s nothing magical about this. But the numbers are impressive. When Carpenter starts a game for the Cardinals — regular season and postseason combined — his record is 56-21. And the team’s record in his starts is 75-30. What does that mean? He’s really, really, good … when at his peak. That’s going to be the question for 2009: presuming that Carpenter will remain healthy, will the quality of his pitching reach the same level that we witnessed from 2004 through 2006? This is Chris Carpenter … but will he be diminished in any way? Or will he come close to being the vintage Carpenter? It’s going to be very interesting to watch. And the Pirates are the first test. They’ll be rattled only if Carpenter is the Carpenter of old instead of an old Carpenter.

RICK HUMMEL
The major effect would be on his own team, especially the veterans like Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina who were here when Carpenter was the Cy Young Award winner. You couldn’t get a pitcher potentially this good through a trade.

DERRICK GOOLD
The sense around the clubhouse Wednesday, on the eve of Chris Carpenter’s return to the mound, was cautious excitement. One reason: Relief. From the manager down, the Cardinals are relieved to have Carpenter healthy, feeling optimistic and pitching, as Adam Wainwright said, “off the charts” this spring. There is no statistic to measure the comfort Carpenter brings to the team on the days he pitches. He’s a presence. When healthy, he’s a known quantity. He is a safe harbor for a team that doesn’t have too many that don’t play first base. His impact on perception can be defined by the reactions entering this afternoon’s game against the Pirates. Pittsburgh is thrilled it has clinched a split of the series with Carpenter looming, and the Cardinals know they botched a chance to win the series by not winning two before Carpenter took the mound.

Simply put, for the Cardinals, Carpenter defines them as contenders. With him, they are. Without him, they can only wonder.

JEFF GORDON
If the old Chris Carpenter returns, that changes everything. Carpenter assumes the role of “stopper,” the starting pitcher expected to stop team slumps with shutdown performances. He becomes the first choice for Tony La Russa in the biggest games. He leads by example, which is vital for younger starters (Adam Wainwright) and journeymen types (Todd Wellemeyer) still working to establish themselves.

The old Carpenter would take pressure off Wainwright and Kyle Lohse, who was thrust into the staff ace role last season. The old Carpenter gives the whole team a boost, making everybody feel better about the Cards’ playoff hopes. And the old Carpenter is somebody other teams hate to face.

GERRY FRALEY
By missing most of the last two seasons, Carpenter has lost the intimidation factor. Right-handed hitters that suddenly experienced “flu-like symptoms” when he pitched will no longer duck out of the lineup. Opponents will not dread facing him. Carpenter is going to have to earn that respect again.

He is also going to have to re-establish himself in the rotation. It is unrealistic to expect Carpenter to be as good as he was in 2005-06, when the club went 46-19 in his starts. For at least the beginning, Carpenter will place an extra load on the bullpen. A long reliever must be available when Carpenter starts in case he runs into trouble.

Carpenter could very well return to past glories. He went 15-5 in 2004, his first year with the Cardinals, after missing the previous 1 1/2 seasons because of injuries. He was also 29 years old then.