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10.06.2008 4:13 pm

What does the Dow drop say about Friday’s rescue package?

St. Louis Post-Dispatch
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The Dow closed below 10,000 for the first time in four years today. But, of course, you know that already, because everyone has been watching the market today after Friday’s passage of the bailout bill and since the international markets tanked much earlier today.

According to the AP story on our site right now:

Investors have come to the realization that the Bush administration’s $700 billion rescue plan and steps taken by other governments won’t work quickly to unfreeze the credit markets.

That sent stocks spiraling downward in the U.S., Europe and Asia, and drove investors to sink money into the relative safety of U.S. government debt. Fears about a global recession also caused oil to drop below $90 a barrel.

So, how have the events of the day affected you? Have you looked at your 401(k) today (I haven’t — I don’t want to know right now!)? Do you think this is a short-term concern? If the market didn’t like the economic rescue plan, or bailout, or whatever you’d like to call it, why didn’t the bottom fall out of the market on Friday?

::UPDATE:: Today, “the Federal Reserve announced a radical plan to buy massive amounts of short-term debts in a dramatic effort to break through a credit clog that is imperiling the economy.”

The Federal Reserve, invoking Depression-era power under “unusual and exigent circumstances,” will buy “commercial paper,” a short-term financing mechanism that many companies rely on to finance their day-to-day operations, such as purchasing supplies or making payrolls.

By the way, here’s a great piece that was on NPR on Sept. 28 that explains the commercial paper market — something the average person doesn’t really pay much attention to.

Does this change the outlook?

18 comments

Comments are closed.

I happened to get my retirement account statement today. It’s down, of course, from last year. I’m still young enough that it will have a chance to recover. I’m not too worried. To me today’s drop just means that outside intervention doesn’t always work, especially in the short term. I have confidence that the market will fix itsself. The problem with those knuckleheads in Washington is, their egos are so huge, they think only they have the answers. I’m sorry they got involved.

— jfmoyn
5:11 pm October 6th, 2008

The market is NOT the economy. The one reflects the other (both ways). I did not expect an immediate upsurge in the market. In truth, I’m expecting the Dow to keep dropping to around the 9000 level between now and election day. At which point, I’m going to roll most of my 401K into the S&P 500 and start buying.

Just because the market didn’t immediately recover with a 500 pt gain doesn’t mean a thing.

— hs
8:38 pm October 6th, 2008

What?! The federal government can’t solve our problem overnight?!

— Dave
10:26 pm October 6th, 2008

I think that these losses are only a concern to conservatives. Liberals love giving their money away to trillion dollar tax schemes….why would they care if their 401K drops a bit???

— Al Bovey
11:14 pm October 6th, 2008

A combination of amatures buying and selling via internet, and low cost trading by amatures…all panicing, plus the herd mentality of stock traders is what is driving this. The real pros want to stay the course and just move your money to more secure areas of the market. Now the smart people should start buying all these bargains, and all the panic sellers will have made a poor financial move.

— A. Patriot
5:39 am October 7th, 2008

Personally, I don’t care if the Dow goes to 400, or 4000. I saw this coming, and divested myself of all stock, There are lots better investments than playing games with politicians who govern over the must unstable government in the Western Hemisphere.

On a whim they can break any company and any individual. Look at the bailout. The AP story, that Kurt referenced, still refers to a 700 Billion Bailout. Either the AP writers can’t read or don’t read.

First, the 700 billion was a figure pulled out of thin air. I tried to find who used that figure first. I couldn’t. Now it is not important.

The bailout bill in no way limits the Feds from taxing us. They have an open end, there is no limit to what they can spend for the bailout. None. Read the damn thing for yourselves.

Have a nice day all, I’m building a new addition to my house,including a huge bathroom with all the bells and whistles. Plus, I bought two one acre lots adjacent to my home and will put up guest house for my many visitors. I’ll take the plans down to my building supplier, they will do a material take off, package it, and keep it for me until Next Feb, and deliver it. I will go down and pay them when they give me the cost.

Have a nice day.

— johnh
6:49 am October 7th, 2008

To me it means that we’re “recovering”–that we haven’t yet recovered. It will take time.

— Ryan On The Euphonium
7:56 am October 7th, 2008

Is anyone suprised the bailout didn’t fix the problem? The plan was hatched by a bunch of clueless idiots who still don’t understand how we got into this mess, or how the bailout was supposed to help. Just 3 weeks ago Bush was telling us “the economy is strong” and Todd Aiken was blaming it on “careless borrowers”. Thankfully, in a few months we’ll be rid of Bush and I hope we can say the same for Aiken.

— luv2cook
8:39 am October 7th, 2008

Remember, Enron and Worldcomm. I hate the fact that a lot of rich people are at fault for this mess. I do hope that the Federal Government and the FBI will investigate some of this mess to see if possibly indictments for those crooks for fraud, criminal theft can be prosecuted and them being sent to prison. These crooks have done a lot of damage to many people and this all happened on George Bush’s watch.

— pat
8:41 am October 7th, 2008

If you expected the bail out to change thing overnight, I have some swamp land in Florida to sell you. Most Americans seem to be very upset with the so call bail out. I don’t expect them to go out and try to trade the market up to show the government how happy they are. Once again we have been fooled. They attached bills that would have not otherwise passed on their own the the bail out to get it through. I really don’t care what happens. I’m going to be O.K. no matter what. I got out of that arena of financial hype some time ago and I now sleep easy.

— first tom
8:51 am October 7th, 2008

The market needs to correct itself. That is what it did yesterday, and that is what it is going to do for the rest of the year minimum.

I’m glad to see all the posters so far realize three things:

1) No bailout package is going to keep us from a recession and further market corrections. At best it will make the landing a little softer, but real pain is still going to have to be felt.

2) Long term investment thinking completely ignores yesterday. Markets have ups and downs. Selling now from stocks and mutual funds is the single biggest idiotic thing you can do right now. Stay the course.

3) In general, don’t rely on the government to fix anything.

Bad times happen. Hunker down and ride it out. Welcome to life.

— Tim
9:12 am October 7th, 2008

Go back in the last 75 years and mark the times when the market has absolutely stunk for a short period. If you would have overcome all the fearmongering and put some of your money into a good mutual fund, you would be singing the praises of that investment 3, 5, or 10 years later.

If you could have overcome emotion and bought on 10/19/1987, you would have been rewarded mightily over the next five years. If you could have overcome emotion and bought on 9/17/2001, you would have made a killing over the next five years. Today is a buying opportunity. What do you think Buffett is doing as we speak? He’s looking for good companies beaten down for no reason that he can add to his holdings.

— Amazedbythelunacy
10:08 am October 7th, 2008

The market drop says that the panic sellers are still panic selling, and have no confidence. I don’t think much will ever change with that just because the government taxes all of it’s citizens to bail out super rich book cookers. Billions of dollars could be recovered from these idiots who have run these companies into the ground while collecting MILLIONS of dollars in “performance bonus’”. Then the idiots on e-trade don’t help the situation. Some of them might know what they’re doing, but really, for the people who haven’t really done the research and don’t understand what they’re doing (even if they think they do) it’s not much different than taking your life savings and playing black roulette with it.

As far as my 401K? It’s down, but I’m 35 and have 30+ years for it to go back up, which it will. I recently increased the percentage I put in to it. Buy low! The most simple investing strategy is to put a set amount of money away to invest every single month. That way you buy fewer shares when the cost is high, and more shares when the cost is low.

On that note, this recent downslide has to really be hurting those that are at or near retirement if they didn’t plan properly. The smart move is to start moving portions into less volatile forms of investment as you get closer to retirement.

The best statement I’ve heard regarding this bailout so far was on SNL Weekend Update - said Seth Meyers “Remember that sub prime mortgage you couldn’t afford to pay for? Well you’re paying for it!”

— b
11:40 am October 7th, 2008

Derivatives of Lehman Brothers get settled this Thurdsay. With the huge default that took place when Lehman filed bankruptcy, credit default swaps are going to have to pay out billions.

Analysts are saying that the credit default swap folks will have to pay out at least 15 to 20 cents on the dollar for Lehman’s bad debt. In reality, they could have to pay much more. These payouts could bring down the entire derivatives house of cards, including many big banks.

In anticipation of this problem, the fed has doubled the amount it lends overnight to banks. They doubled it last week, so they know a real problem is coming and they’re trying to smooth it out.

Whether things fall apart this Thursday or Friday remains to be seen but it doesn’t look good. Hold on to your hats, folks, it’s going to be a wild ride.

— Freedom Fighter
2:30 pm October 7th, 2008

HOW CAN ANYONE BLAME GEORGE BUSH…. HE HAS SOME INPUT INTO WHAT CONGRESS DOES BUT THEY ARE THE REAL CAUSE AND WHAT IS THE CONTROLLING PARTY….DEMOCRATS.As early as 1992, alarm bells were going off on the threat Fannie and Freddie posed to our financial system and our economy. Intervention at any point could have staved off today’s crisis. But Democrats in Congress stood in the way.The mortgage giants, whose executive suites were top-heavy with former Democratic officials (and some Republicans), worked with Wall Street to repackage the bad loans and sell them to investors.Just as Republicans got blamed for Enron, WorldCom and other early-2000s scandals that were actually due to the anything-goes Clinton era, the media are now blaming them for the mortgage meltdown.
But Republicans tried repeatedly to bring fiscal sanity to Fannie and Freddie. Democrats opposed them, especially Sen. Chris Dodd and Rep. Barney Frank, who now run Congress’ key banking panels.
History is utterly clear on this.
After Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers warned Congress in 1999 of the “systemic risk” posed by Fannie and Freddie, Congress held hearings the next year.Soon after taking office, Bush had his hands full with the Clinton recession and 9/11. But by 2003, he proposed what the New York Times called “the most significant regulatory overhaul in the housing finance industry since the savings and loan crisis a decade ago.”In 2005, then-Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan told Congress: “We are placing the total financial system of the future at substantial risk.”That year, Sen. John McCain, one of three sponsors of a Fannie-Freddie reform bill, said: “If Congress does not act, American taxpayers will continue to be exposed to the enormous risk that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac pose to the housing market, the overall financial system and the economy as a whole.”This year, the media have repeated Democrats’ talking points about this being a “Republican” disaster. Well, McCain has repeatedly called for reforming the mortgage giants. The White House has repeatedly warned Congress. This year alone, Bush urged reform 17 times.
IT IS PURE GREED AND TAKING ADVANTAGE OF PEOPLE WHO WERE NOT SMART ENOUGH TO UNDERSTAND THESE LOANS AND THAT THEY WERE BUYING BEYOND THEIR MEANS

— FJB
5:46 pm October 7th, 2008

It says that the spendthrifts in Congress who voted “yes” on the bailout, lined the pockets of a bunch of already-wealthy executives with almost a trillion dollars of tax-payer money. It was meaningless, as far as the market was/is concerned. But when you have fools like Ali Velshi on CNN (who is not an economist; he has a degree in theology from Canada), screaming ala Chicken Little that the sky was falling and they had to vote “yes”, some succumbed to the false Bush timeline. The biggest plundering in taxpayer history. And McCain was “in charge” of the passing this bill, remember?

— Chris
9:01 pm October 9th, 2008

I’m currently retired, aged 60 and totally dependant on my once large pre-retirement investments and I’m scared! After enjoying a few years removed from the work force, I believe I would be incompetent in my former good-paying profession (pharmacist). Does anyone know what happens if the Dow goes down to zero? Does our civilization collapse? Is it Thunderdome?

— judybarbers
3:12 pm October 12th, 2008

The market response merely is an indicator that other factors in the economy are off as well. The bailout package only addresses one issue; liquidity of financial institution affecting their ability,desire and decisions to make loans. This is another example of the “trickle down” theory of economics. What the bailout is aimed at doing is helping big banks who make large commercial loans. This, in theory, will allow big employers to stay in business and expand. This will result in more jobs which will benefit the economy overall.

A problem with this theory is that business don’t expand production in an economy where consumers are not buying. They will reduce their own debt, thereby strengthening themselves to withstand a worsening economy. One of the reasons I support Senator Obama is because his plans recognize the need for action in many areas. The government directly providing jobs by increasing public projects will benefit the entire economy from the individual wage earner up, instead of relying upon big business to do the right thing.

— Galt
1:06 pm October 16th, 2008