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10.06.2008 4:13 pm

What does the Dow drop say about Friday’s rescue package?

St. Louis Post-Dispatch
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The Dow closed below 10,000 for the first time in four years today. But, of course, you know that already, because everyone has been watching the market today after Friday’s passage of the bailout bill and since the international markets tanked much earlier today.

According to the AP story on our site right now:

Investors have come to the realization that the Bush administration’s $700 billion rescue plan and steps taken by other governments won’t work quickly to unfreeze the credit markets.

That sent stocks spiraling downward in the U.S., Europe and Asia, and drove investors to sink money into the relative safety of U.S. government debt. Fears about a global recession also caused oil to drop below $90 a barrel.

So, how have the events of the day affected you? Have you looked at your 401(k) today (I haven’t — I don’t want to know right now!)? Do you think this is a short-term concern? If the market didn’t like the economic rescue plan, or bailout, or whatever you’d like to call it, why didn’t the bottom fall out of the market on Friday?

::UPDATE:: Today, “the Federal Reserve announced a radical plan to buy massive amounts of short-term debts in a dramatic effort to break through a credit clog that is imperiling the economy.”

The Federal Reserve, invoking Depression-era power under “unusual and exigent circumstances,” will buy “commercial paper,” a short-term financing mechanism that many companies rely on to finance their day-to-day operations, such as purchasing supplies or making payrolls.

By the way, here’s a great piece that was on NPR on Sept. 28 that explains the commercial paper market — something the average person doesn’t really pay much attention to.

Does this change the outlook?

18 comments

Comments are closed.

The market needs to correct itself. That is what it did yesterday, and that is what it is going to do for the rest of the year minimum.

I’m glad to see all the posters so far realize three things:

1) No bailout package is going to keep us from a recession and further market corrections. At best it will make the landing a little softer, but real pain is still going to have to be felt.

2) Long term investment thinking completely ignores yesterday. Markets have ups and downs. Selling now from stocks and mutual funds is the single biggest idiotic thing you can do right now. Stay the course.

3) In general, don’t rely on the government to fix anything.

Bad times happen. Hunker down and ride it out. Welcome to life.

— Tim
9:12 am October 7th, 2008

Go back in the last 75 years and mark the times when the market has absolutely stunk for a short period. If you would have overcome all the fearmongering and put some of your money into a good mutual fund, you would be singing the praises of that investment 3, 5, or 10 years later.

If you could have overcome emotion and bought on 10/19/1987, you would have been rewarded mightily over the next five years. If you could have overcome emotion and bought on 9/17/2001, you would have made a killing over the next five years. Today is a buying opportunity. What do you think Buffett is doing as we speak? He’s looking for good companies beaten down for no reason that he can add to his holdings.

— Amazedbythelunacy
10:08 am October 7th, 2008

The market drop says that the panic sellers are still panic selling, and have no confidence. I don’t think much will ever change with that just because the government taxes all of it’s citizens to bail out super rich book cookers. Billions of dollars could be recovered from these idiots who have run these companies into the ground while collecting MILLIONS of dollars in “performance bonus’”. Then the idiots on e-trade don’t help the situation. Some of them might know what they’re doing, but really, for the people who haven’t really done the research and don’t understand what they’re doing (even if they think they do) it’s not much different than taking your life savings and playing black roulette with it.

As far as my 401K? It’s down, but I’m 35 and have 30+ years for it to go back up, which it will. I recently increased the percentage I put in to it. Buy low! The most simple investing strategy is to put a set amount of money away to invest every single month. That way you buy fewer shares when the cost is high, and more shares when the cost is low.

On that note, this recent downslide has to really be hurting those that are at or near retirement if they didn’t plan properly. The smart move is to start moving portions into less volatile forms of investment as you get closer to retirement.

The best statement I’ve heard regarding this bailout so far was on SNL Weekend Update - said Seth Meyers “Remember that sub prime mortgage you couldn’t afford to pay for? Well you’re paying for it!”

— b
11:40 am October 7th, 2008

Derivatives of Lehman Brothers get settled this Thurdsay. With the huge default that took place when Lehman filed bankruptcy, credit default swaps are going to have to pay out billions.

Analysts are saying that the credit default swap folks will have to pay out at least 15 to 20 cents on the dollar for Lehman’s bad debt. In reality, they could have to pay much more. These payouts could bring down the entire derivatives house of cards, including many big banks.

In anticipation of this problem, the fed has doubled the amount it lends overnight to banks. They doubled it last week, so they know a real problem is coming and they’re trying to smooth it out.

Whether things fall apart this Thursday or Friday remains to be seen but it doesn’t look good. Hold on to your hats, folks, it’s going to be a wild ride.

— Freedom Fighter
2:30 pm October 7th, 2008

HOW CAN ANYONE BLAME GEORGE BUSH…. HE HAS SOME INPUT INTO WHAT CONGRESS DOES BUT THEY ARE THE REAL CAUSE AND WHAT IS THE CONTROLLING PARTY….DEMOCRATS.As early as 1992, alarm bells were going off on the threat Fannie and Freddie posed to our financial system and our economy. Intervention at any point could have staved off today’s crisis. But Democrats in Congress stood in the way.The mortgage giants, whose executive suites were top-heavy with former Democratic officials (and some Republicans), worked with Wall Street to repackage the bad loans and sell them to investors.Just as Republicans got blamed for Enron, WorldCom and other early-2000s scandals that were actually due to the anything-goes Clinton era, the media are now blaming them for the mortgage meltdown.
But Republicans tried repeatedly to bring fiscal sanity to Fannie and Freddie. Democrats opposed them, especially Sen. Chris Dodd and Rep. Barney Frank, who now run Congress’ key banking panels.
History is utterly clear on this.
After Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers warned Congress in 1999 of the “systemic risk” posed by Fannie and Freddie, Congress held hearings the next year.Soon after taking office, Bush had his hands full with the Clinton recession and 9/11. But by 2003, he proposed what the New York Times called “the most significant regulatory overhaul in the housing finance industry since the savings and loan crisis a decade ago.”In 2005, then-Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan told Congress: “We are placing the total financial system of the future at substantial risk.”That year, Sen. John McCain, one of three sponsors of a Fannie-Freddie reform bill, said: “If Congress does not act, American taxpayers will continue to be exposed to the enormous risk that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac pose to the housing market, the overall financial system and the economy as a whole.”This year, the media have repeated Democrats’ talking points about this being a “Republican” disaster. Well, McCain has repeatedly called for reforming the mortgage giants. The White House has repeatedly warned Congress. This year alone, Bush urged reform 17 times.
IT IS PURE GREED AND TAKING ADVANTAGE OF PEOPLE WHO WERE NOT SMART ENOUGH TO UNDERSTAND THESE LOANS AND THAT THEY WERE BUYING BEYOND THEIR MEANS

— FJB
5:46 pm October 7th, 2008

It says that the spendthrifts in Congress who voted “yes” on the bailout, lined the pockets of a bunch of already-wealthy executives with almost a trillion dollars of tax-payer money. It was meaningless, as far as the market was/is concerned. But when you have fools like Ali Velshi on CNN (who is not an economist; he has a degree in theology from Canada), screaming ala Chicken Little that the sky was falling and they had to vote “yes”, some succumbed to the false Bush timeline. The biggest plundering in taxpayer history. And McCain was “in charge” of the passing this bill, remember?

— Chris
9:01 pm October 9th, 2008

I’m currently retired, aged 60 and totally dependant on my once large pre-retirement investments and I’m scared! After enjoying a few years removed from the work force, I believe I would be incompetent in my former good-paying profession (pharmacist). Does anyone know what happens if the Dow goes down to zero? Does our civilization collapse? Is it Thunderdome?

— judybarbers
3:12 pm October 12th, 2008

The market response merely is an indicator that other factors in the economy are off as well. The bailout package only addresses one issue; liquidity of financial institution affecting their ability,desire and decisions to make loans. This is another example of the “trickle down” theory of economics. What the bailout is aimed at doing is helping big banks who make large commercial loans. This, in theory, will allow big employers to stay in business and expand. This will result in more jobs which will benefit the economy overall.

A problem with this theory is that business don’t expand production in an economy where consumers are not buying. They will reduce their own debt, thereby strengthening themselves to withstand a worsening economy. One of the reasons I support Senator Obama is because his plans recognize the need for action in many areas. The government directly providing jobs by increasing public projects will benefit the entire economy from the individual wage earner up, instead of relying upon big business to do the right thing.

— Galt
1:06 pm October 16th, 2008

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