Just about everyone is aware that President Bush’s approval rating has been hovering right around 30 percent for some time now. This is nothing new for most reasonably informed observers — Bush’s approval rating is cited in just about every single news story about the presidential race between Barack Obama and John McCain.
Bush’s unpopularity is hardly a matter of debate — but his abysmal polling numbers should perhaps be taken in context of a broader American dissatisfaction with the way things are going in America. As has been widely reported, pollsters have found that nearly 80 percent of Americans think the country is on the “wrong track.”
In fact, though Bush’s approval rating is low by historical standards, it has been outperforming the approval rating of that other elected branch of government — the Democratic-controlled U.S. Congress — whose approval rating was just 19 percent in the latest poll.
This week, 52 percent of Americans rated Congress’ performance as “poor,” the highest-ever disapproval rating for the legislature. Just 11 percent rank its performance as “good” or “excellent.”
Furthermore, Gallup’s annual report on Americans’ confidence in government institutions found Congress ranking dead last – just 12 percent, behind “Big business” and “HMOs” – the worst-ever confidence rating for any institution in the 35-year history of Gallup’s questionnaire.
Seizing on this general American dissatisfaction, both Barack Obama and John McCain have successfully used the theme of “change” as the centerpiece of their campaigns — McCain has been fond of saying that this election is about “what type of change” voters really want.
Moral of the story? Low approval ratings do not necessarily mean electoral defeat for the party that has them. As two prominent political scientists noted in a recent report:
Approval ratings and the economy are likely to provide weaker clues to an election’s outcome when the incumbent is not running.
News reports that ominously cite Bush’s low approval ratings as “bad news” for McCain forget to mention that Congress’s even lower approval ratings are by no means spelling doom for the Democratic majority in Congress. In fact, a recent poll showed the Democrats maintaining a solid lead over Republicans on the generic Congressional ballot.
Barack Obama may very well win in November. But if he does, it will be because he ran a better campaign than John McCain — not because of President Bush’s approval rating.
*UPDATE: Perhaps 80 percent of Americans feel that their country is on the “wrong track” because of “news” stories like this one from the AP:
Everything seemingly is spinning out of control
By ALAN FRAM and EILEEN PUTMANWASHINGTON (AP) — Is everything spinning out of control?
Midwestern levees are bursting. Polar bears are adrift. Gas prices are skyrocketing. Home values are abysmal. Air fares, college tuition and health care border on unaffordable. Wars without end rage in Iraq, Afghanistan and against terrorism…The can-do, bootstrap approach embedded in the American psyche is under assault. Eroding it is a dour powerlessness that is chipping away at the country’s sturdy conviction that destiny can be commanded with sheer courage and perseverance.
It goes on like that for about three more pages. As USA Today’s James Pethokoukis writes: “The ‘article’ makes me weep for my chosen profession.” That’s putting it lightly.