“Party unity” still a problem for Obama
Apparently the Democratic party’s “unification” process is not yet complete. This YouTube video was added yesterday:
Also, check out the comments. There’s still a lot of anger simmering among ardent Hillary supporters, and a surprising number of them are still refusing to back Obama. (Note: this video is not an isolated case; see stories like this.)
A CNN poll taken earlier this month showed that only 54 percent of Clinton supporters said they planned on voting for Obama (down from 60 percent in June). But more ominously, 33 percent said they will stay home on November 4th (up from 22 percent in June).
Those numbers could simply be explained by lingering reluctance by Clinton backers to switch their support to Obama, a candidate they had so long opposed during the bitter primary battle. It’s entirely possible that by November, those feelings will have faded and Clinton supporters will overwhelmingly cast their votes for Obama.
In any case, it’s clear that despite his efforts thus far, Obama still has plenty of work to do on the “unity” front.
**UPDATE: Obama, of course, still enjoys a narrow but consistent lead over McCain in most nationwide polls. Two relevant polls from Rasmussen this week are worthy of note:
1) A poll today found that 30 percent of conservative Democrats plan on voting for McCain. 78 percent of Democrats overall plan on voting for Obama. The Rasmussen story notes that while Obama may be losing some Democratic voters, he starts out with an advantage due to the fact that far more people identify themselves as Democrats this year than Republicans.
2) In addition, a poll from Rasmussen yesterday found that twice as many voters are “uncommitted” this year (14 percent) as they were at the same time in 2004. Interestingly, far more of those uncommitted voters were Democrats:
But, while much has been made of John McCain’s struggles with his party’s conservative base, 33% of the uncommitted voters are Democrats while only 19% are Republicans. Forty-eight percent (48%) are not affiliated with either major political party.
Even more surprisingly, more of those “uncommitted” voters seem to be leaning towards McCain:
This year, 37% of the uncommitted voters plan to vote for a Democratic Congressional candidate while 22% say they’ll vote for the GOP. But, when asked which way they’re leaning in the race for the White House, 26% say McCain and 19% say Obama. Twenty percent (20%) say they still prefer a third-party candidate.
Uncommitted Republicans are far more likely to lean towards McCain than uncommitted Democrats are to lean towards Obama.
Underwritten by the RNC no doubt.
He’s not in trouble. He still has PLENTY of time to be on both sides of every issue.
Actually, RHarnack, if you check out the description (and poster), the video was made by Hillary Clinton supporters:
“Lynette Long” http://www.LynetteLong.com
“Real Democrats USA” http://www.RealDemocratsUSA.org
GeekLove a/k/a HRCin08. [the uploader]
“Come A Long Way…” http://ComeALongWay.wordpress.com
The description also points to the Denver Group (vid here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GVQ1I0jOAu8) which is seeking to “keep the Democratic party democratic” by seeking a list of pro-Hillary goals for the Democratic National Convention in August.
The RNC doesn’t need to underwrite this sort of thing (though I’m sure they’re pleased) — ordinary Democrats are doing it all on their own.
These are the Democrats who belong with this element of people, sad state of mental mind to be in, but there are enough people of sound mind that it will not truly hurt Obama.
These Democrats you speak about Alex has the psyche and likeness of the rural Missouri man who stated the things below as reported by the Post Dispatch:
“Everyone I’ve talked to don’t want him in there. The first reason is his name,” Mayes said.
“Second, he wasn’t born here,” Mayes asserted, contending that a foreign-born person shouldn’t be allowed to run for president.
When told that Obama was born in Hawaii and was indeed an American citizen, as required by the U.S. Constitution, Mayes expressed surprise: “I didn’t know that.”
This is a completely manufactured story. Obama’s support among Democrats is roughly the same as McCain’s support among Republicans. Obama leads McCain in 78 out of the last 80 polls. This is not a problem at all for him, but GOP water carriers like Alex want us to believe it is.
The marching orders have been passed down, the democrats who supported Billary II are just supposed to shut up and vote for The Chosen One. Never mind he lost the popular vote to Billary, this is HIS nomination, this is HIS time, he bought it, its HIS. I am not sure who his CDF will go after first if he fools enough people to win, those of us from the other party who wont bow down to HIM, or the former members of HIS party that betrayed HIM.
Now go air up your tires to end the energy crisis.
“This is a completely manufactured story.”
Hmmm… And a completely manufactured candidate, too?
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AdamS - I would really appreciate it if you would stop whining about Alex who is finally in the history of the PD bringing some balance and credibility to the paper. Geez, do you think you can allow someone who isn’t a far-left wing kook to have a say?
Second, DWalker, if I spoke like that about one of my fellow citizens you would right now be calling me “evil” and un-Christian as you always do.
Apparently you agree with that great Christian Chris Matthews.
A CENTRIST,
What are you talking about when you say, speak like that about a fellow citizen? In fact, the rural Missouri man appears to have your state of mind, he sounds a lot like you do.
What opinion of Chris Matthews are you saying that I agree with?
Sen. Obama definitely has work to do on the “unity” front. Actually, it’s worse than that: I honestly don’t think he’s going to win over many of Hillary’s supporters–whether the many women who felt strongly and passionately about her candidacy (and who, feeling angry that Obama won essentially on points, may not vote or will write in Hillary) or the many working-class swing voters (so-called “lunch bucket” Dems) who backed her as their champion and who will now more than likely go with McCain.
I am a progressive Dem–a latte-sipping urban liberal who has worked for years in social justice movements–who strongly supported Hillary Clinton as the best and strongest candidate. I watched her rack up impressive victories in high-turnout primaries in blue states and battleground states (compared with Sen. Obama’s many wins in low-turnout caucuses in Republican states that won’t be in play for Dems in the fall). Hillary’s wins translated into electoral-math dominance; she also had the momentum in the final weeks of the nomination contest, winning primary after primary, some of them surprises. For all of his virtues and all of his inspiring qualities, Obama couldn’t close the deal with voters.
I don’t think he can win the key states he needs to win in the fall, even with his tack to the center. There’s no question that he needs Hillary’s coalition of voters–really an amazingly and impressively broad coalition with the exception, clearly, of the African American base. If Hillary isn’t on the ticket, he isn’t going to get them.
I have seen the Obama campaign’s comments about not needing Ohio, etc.–that they might win states like Colo. or Georgia. But none of the “wild card” states he’s gambling on have anything close to the number of electoral votes of an Ohio, a Florida, or other “Hillary-friendly” swing states the campaign seems resigned to writing off. And most political experts studying all the trends and number, all the hard electoral realities, seem to suggest that he can’t pull off the miracles he would need to win.
Hillary on the ticket as veep clearly seems to give him a bounce. More compelling (and more sobering, as Obama’s numbers against McCain drop or stagnate) is that Hillary at the top of the ticket beats McCain pretty handily, according to very recent polls.
I don’t see a scenario where the superdels bite it and switch their support to Hillary. But I also don’t see where Obama gets off deciding that, after Hillary fought him to more or less a statistical tie–and marshalled the Democratic base in ways he did not (registered Democrats preferred Hillary, and then there’s Hillary’s strength in big swing states)–I don’t see how he gets off NOT putting her on the veep ticket. It seems profoundly disrespectful to the 18 million Democrats who voted for Clinton, who invested her with their support and their hope and the strength of their democratic convictions.
Sen. Obama is seeking to become the nominee of the Democratic Party, not the Obama Party. He’s flipping the bird to the half of the party who strongly preferred his opponent. That’s not a smart way to win elections.
I do have to say that as much as I think Hillary Clinton has earned the right to be the veep nominee, I can’t imagine why she would want to do it.
I also have to say that it is disspiriting to watch Sen. Obama weigh the possibility of naming a veep like Tim Kaine–an antichoice and antigay conservative Democrat. Yikes! This is our progressive nominee? Another way not to win over Hillary people, that’s for sure.
JT,
Hold on to every word you ahve stated here and remember after the elections in November, how wrong you are. I would prefer Tim Kaine as veep over Hillary Clinton any day.
Not all Democrats are those of us who support Obama is supportive of gay marriasges, does that make me anti-gay?
I wdon’t su
I think that you are totally incorrect and will see come November.
I also think the Clintons should be run out of Washington for all the harm they have done to this country.
OK Centrist,
Next time Alex recycles some discredited GOP talking points I’ll just be quiet in order to make you feel better. Is there anything else I can do to make you feel more secure about your Halliburton stock?
A CENTRIST - save yourself trouble, you need only respond to one or the other… Adam S. = D. Walker same person logging under two names.
— JT Senator “O” certainly has to be in a private hell at the moment knowing he’s stalled in the polls. Conventional wisdom would have him way up due to 2 wars, mortgage mess, sluggish economy, high gas prices. Looming over his shoulder is an angry Hillary feeling betrayed by “O’s” half-hearted support in clearing her campaign debt and bitter over a tough nomination battle. Perfect Storm for a storied Clinton ju-jitsu move in Denver.
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That’s funny BobZ,
I thought you and “Centrist” were the same person! I guess it must be because you’re always so wrong. Obama is leading handily in Pennsylvania and has been for a while. McCain needs to win *both* Ohio and Florida to have even a chance at the election, and the latest polls show Obama up by two in both. Obama is also leading consistently in Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado, red states in ‘04, and is competitive in Virginia, North Carolina, Missouri, and Nevada. He is not in trouble in any way, save perhaps the media’s desperate attempts to make the race look close.
A non-denial denial… will take that as a confirmation from AS/DW.
How do you, Adam, explain Senator “O”’s stagnant polling — Is there a reason he’s not further ahead in polls?
Have just returned from week in PA, mostly in that portion of Carville’s Alabama (between Pitt & Phila). There is a clear sense that “O”’s bitter-clingers comment still stings… trust me, Camp “O” has reason to be worried. Besides, Pennsylvania primary was not one of “O”’s shining moments:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/primaries/pa/
Oil is declining, still no Recession, US macro economy remains the envy of most Western nations, a Free Iraq is finally emerging. If Fannie and Freddie Mac (government-sponsored enterprises) hadn’t screwed up mortgage & banking markets what would the Democratic Party have to run on … Populism/class resentment, abortion rights, polar bear habitat?
Media has been in the tank for Hope-Change/Anti-Bush for months… even they need to come up for air every now and again.
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Everyone:
I’ve updated this post with some relevant poll results from Rasmussen this week.
Regarding the update. OK, according to that same Rasmussen poll, 18% of Democrats consider themselves “conservative.” So combine that with the fact the 30% of conservative Democrats say they are going to vote for McCain and you get, a whopping 6% of Democrats voting for McCain! Oooooh, what a big story!
By the way, the relevant comparison is how many Republicans are planning on voting for Obama. I didn’t see that in this Rasumussen report, but I’m not a member, so please let me know if they have those numbers. But like I said, from what I’ve seen, McCain’s support from Republicans is roughly the same as Obama’s support from Democrats. For example, here’s an analysis of a Rasmussen report that showed that Obama’s favorable to unfavorable ratio among Democrats was 82:17 and McCain’s favorable to unfavorable ratio among Republicans was 84:15: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/06/which-candidate-has-base-problem.html . Not a big difference at all, and nothing Alex has provided shows that it is. But Alex (because he wants McCain to win) and many in the media (because they want a close race) only talk about Obama’s numbers and try to make them into a story.
Mr Mayer -
In re my comment about the RNC underwriting the ad: My tongue was planted firmly in my cheek. Although I would not be surprised if they had contributed to the effort.
As to the “democratic wing of the Democratic Party” statment, I seem to remember when Bill Clinton first got the nomination, there was a similar effort by the “powers that be” in response to his Leadership Council.
Bill and Hillary need to be reminded they are not in charge anymore and neither is Terry McAuliffe. They screwed it up for Al Gore in 2000, it is beginning to look like they are going to do the same for Senator Obama.
Adam,
I spent a significant amount of time looking for a Republican counterpart to the Rasmussen poll of Democrats that I posted, but the most recent polling data I could find on the subject dated back to April. To my knowledge, no major polling organization has done a survey of Republican support for McCain (or, more accurately, potential Republican support for Obama) since then. I agree, it would definitely be helpful to see the results of a similar poll of Republicans in order to compare McCain’s support among his own party to Obama’s.
BobZ,
I do not post under two names, why would I? Only one here for me.
Is this good enough for you, or are you next going to call me a liar?