“Party unity” still a problem for Obama
Apparently the Democratic party’s “unification” process is not yet complete. This YouTube video was added yesterday:
Also, check out the comments. There’s still a lot of anger simmering among ardent Hillary supporters, and a surprising number of them are still refusing to back Obama. (Note: this video is not an isolated case; see stories like this.)
A CNN poll taken earlier this month showed that only 54 percent of Clinton supporters said they planned on voting for Obama (down from 60 percent in June). But more ominously, 33 percent said they will stay home on November 4th (up from 22 percent in June).
Those numbers could simply be explained by lingering reluctance by Clinton backers to switch their support to Obama, a candidate they had so long opposed during the bitter primary battle. It’s entirely possible that by November, those feelings will have faded and Clinton supporters will overwhelmingly cast their votes for Obama.
In any case, it’s clear that despite his efforts thus far, Obama still has plenty of work to do on the “unity” front.
**UPDATE: Obama, of course, still enjoys a narrow but consistent lead over McCain in most nationwide polls. Two relevant polls from Rasmussen this week are worthy of note:
1) A poll today found that 30 percent of conservative Democrats plan on voting for McCain. 78 percent of Democrats overall plan on voting for Obama. The Rasmussen story notes that while Obama may be losing some Democratic voters, he starts out with an advantage due to the fact that far more people identify themselves as Democrats this year than Republicans.
2) In addition, a poll from Rasmussen yesterday found that twice as many voters are “uncommitted” this year (14 percent) as they were at the same time in 2004. Interestingly, far more of those uncommitted voters were Democrats:
But, while much has been made of John McCain’s struggles with his party’s conservative base, 33% of the uncommitted voters are Democrats while only 19% are Republicans. Forty-eight percent (48%) are not affiliated with either major political party.
Even more surprisingly, more of those “uncommitted” voters seem to be leaning towards McCain:
This year, 37% of the uncommitted voters plan to vote for a Democratic Congressional candidate while 22% say they’ll vote for the GOP. But, when asked which way they’re leaning in the race for the White House, 26% say McCain and 19% say Obama. Twenty percent (20%) say they still prefer a third-party candidate.
Uncommitted Republicans are far more likely to lean towards McCain than uncommitted Democrats are to lean towards Obama.
JT,
Hold on to every word you ahve stated here and remember after the elections in November, how wrong you are. I would prefer Tim Kaine as veep over Hillary Clinton any day.
Not all Democrats are those of us who support Obama is supportive of gay marriasges, does that make me anti-gay?
I wdon’t su
I think that you are totally incorrect and will see come November.
I also think the Clintons should be run out of Washington for all the harm they have done to this country.
OK Centrist,
Next time Alex recycles some discredited GOP talking points I’ll just be quiet in order to make you feel better. Is there anything else I can do to make you feel more secure about your Halliburton stock?
A CENTRIST - save yourself trouble, you need only respond to one or the other… Adam S. = D. Walker same person logging under two names.
— JT Senator “O” certainly has to be in a private hell at the moment knowing he’s stalled in the polls. Conventional wisdom would have him way up due to 2 wars, mortgage mess, sluggish economy, high gas prices. Looming over his shoulder is an angry Hillary feeling betrayed by “O’s” half-hearted support in clearing her campaign debt and bitter over a tough nomination battle. Perfect Storm for a storied Clinton ju-jitsu move in Denver.
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That’s funny BobZ,
I thought you and “Centrist” were the same person! I guess it must be because you’re always so wrong. Obama is leading handily in Pennsylvania and has been for a while. McCain needs to win *both* Ohio and Florida to have even a chance at the election, and the latest polls show Obama up by two in both. Obama is also leading consistently in Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado, red states in ‘04, and is competitive in Virginia, North Carolina, Missouri, and Nevada. He is not in trouble in any way, save perhaps the media’s desperate attempts to make the race look close.
A non-denial denial… will take that as a confirmation from AS/DW.
How do you, Adam, explain Senator “O”’s stagnant polling — Is there a reason he’s not further ahead in polls?
Have just returned from week in PA, mostly in that portion of Carville’s Alabama (between Pitt & Phila). There is a clear sense that “O”’s bitter-clingers comment still stings… trust me, Camp “O” has reason to be worried. Besides, Pennsylvania primary was not one of “O”’s shining moments:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/primaries/pa/
Oil is declining, still no Recession, US macro economy remains the envy of most Western nations, a Free Iraq is finally emerging. If Fannie and Freddie Mac (government-sponsored enterprises) hadn’t screwed up mortgage & banking markets what would the Democratic Party have to run on … Populism/class resentment, abortion rights, polar bear habitat?
Media has been in the tank for Hope-Change/Anti-Bush for months… even they need to come up for air every now and again.
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Everyone:
I’ve updated this post with some relevant poll results from Rasmussen this week.
Regarding the update. OK, according to that same Rasmussen poll, 18% of Democrats consider themselves “conservative.” So combine that with the fact the 30% of conservative Democrats say they are going to vote for McCain and you get, a whopping 6% of Democrats voting for McCain! Oooooh, what a big story!
By the way, the relevant comparison is how many Republicans are planning on voting for Obama. I didn’t see that in this Rasumussen report, but I’m not a member, so please let me know if they have those numbers. But like I said, from what I’ve seen, McCain’s support from Republicans is roughly the same as Obama’s support from Democrats. For example, here’s an analysis of a Rasmussen report that showed that Obama’s favorable to unfavorable ratio among Democrats was 82:17 and McCain’s favorable to unfavorable ratio among Republicans was 84:15: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/06/which-candidate-has-base-problem.html . Not a big difference at all, and nothing Alex has provided shows that it is. But Alex (because he wants McCain to win) and many in the media (because they want a close race) only talk about Obama’s numbers and try to make them into a story.
Mr Mayer -
In re my comment about the RNC underwriting the ad: My tongue was planted firmly in my cheek. Although I would not be surprised if they had contributed to the effort.
As to the “democratic wing of the Democratic Party” statment, I seem to remember when Bill Clinton first got the nomination, there was a similar effort by the “powers that be” in response to his Leadership Council.
Bill and Hillary need to be reminded they are not in charge anymore and neither is Terry McAuliffe. They screwed it up for Al Gore in 2000, it is beginning to look like they are going to do the same for Senator Obama.
Adam,
I spent a significant amount of time looking for a Republican counterpart to the Rasmussen poll of Democrats that I posted, but the most recent polling data I could find on the subject dated back to April. To my knowledge, no major polling organization has done a survey of Republican support for McCain (or, more accurately, potential Republican support for Obama) since then. I agree, it would definitely be helpful to see the results of a similar poll of Republicans in order to compare McCain’s support among his own party to Obama’s.