The short analysis of the results of Tuesday’s Missouri primary would be this: Money talked.
In nearly every major race, the candidate with the deeper pockets won. Those candidates were able to afford a barrage of last-minute television ads and automated phone calls, some of them misleading and many of them negative.
If this kind of campaigning wins primaries, when candidates ostensibly are on the same side, just imagine what the fall election will be like — particularly since the limits on campaign contributions to candidates for state office will be removed as of Aug. 28.
At the top of the ticket, just below the presumptive presidential match-up between Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain, will be Kenny v. Jay. It sounds like a Khoury League pitching match-up, not a governor’s race. In more formal terms, the governor’s race will pit Republican U.S. Rep. Kenneth C. Hulshof, 50, of Columbia by way of Bertrand, against Democratic Attorney General Jeremiah W. Nixon, 52, of Jefferson City by way of Hillsboro.
The two veteran party loyalists emerged from their respective primaries, Mr. Nixon unbruised and all but unopposed, Mr. Hulshof dinged up by a rugged primary battle with state Treasurer Sarah Steelman. Mr. Hulshof, who had the backing of most party leaders and major contributors, outspent her on television ads in the last month of the campaign by nearly two to one.
Ms. Steelman ran a classic outsider’s campaign, portraying herself as the “people’s candidate” despite a long record of support for business interests. She attacked Mr. Hulshof, a veteran of 12 years in the U.S. House, for a record of support of pork-barrel spending projects and ethanol producers. The message resonated in many parts of southwest Missouri, but the turnout there wasn’t large enough to offset Mr. Hulshof’s big margins in St. Charles and St. Louis counties.
Mr. Hulshof, despite his years in Congress, had to introduce himself to most voters outside the 9th Congressional District of north central Missouri. He did so largely on television, emphasizing his farming background and solid conservative credentials. His task was made more difficult because, until January, incumbent Republican Gov. Matt Blunt had been expected to run for a second term. When Mr. Blunt dropped out, state Republicans — with the notable exception of Ms. Steelman — got in line behind Mr. Hulshof.
Although Mr. Nixon polled better than either Mr. Hulshof or Ms. Steelman, Mr. Hulshof is capable of making that ground up in a hurry, now that there are no limits on how much contributors can give directly to state office seekers. Mr. Nixon is no slouch as a fundraiser himself, suggesting that the fall campaign will easily shatter the record of $11.9 million spent in the 2004 governor’s race between Mr. Blunt and Democrat Claire McCaskill, now a U.S. senator.
In other statewide races, Republican Lieutenant Gov. Peter Kinder easily won renomination for a second term. He will face Democrat Sam Page of Creve Coeur, a physician and state representative, who outpaced five minor candidates.
In the race to succeed Mr. Nixon as attorney general, Republican state Sen. Mike Gibbons of Kirkwood, who was unopposed, will face either state Sen. Chris Koster of Belton or state Rep. Margaret Donnelly of Richmond Heights. At press time their race was too close to call, with Mr. Koster showing strength in the western side of the state, Ms. Donnelly closing fast in the St. Louis area.
Should Mr. Koster emerge, it will be remarkable, considering that he became a Democrat only a year ago. As a state senator, he was a loyal Republican voter, a fact he managed to obscure with heavy spending on television ads focusing on his record as a prosecuting attorney. Mr. Koster also was battered by Ms. Donnelly and a third candidate, state Rep. Jeff Harris of Columbia, for playing fast and loose with campaign funding restrictions.
In the third contested statewide race, that for state treasurer, Republican state Sen. Brad Lager of Maryville was unopposed. On the Democratic side, it appeared for a while Tuesday night that Arnold Mayor Mark Powell would be the exception to the “money talks” rule. The party’s unsuccessful 2004 candidate for treasurer, Mr. Powell ran a shoestring campaign this year, spending only about $25,000, some $450,000 less than state Rep. Clint Zweifel of Florissant. In the end, Mr. Zweifel, who had heavy support from organized labor, pulled away.
Money played a major role in the race for Mr. Hulshof’s 9th district congressional seat. In the GOP race, the two candidates who could afford television ads, former state Rep. Blaine Luetekemeyer of St. Elizabeth and state Rep. Bob Onder easily outpolled state Rep. Danie Moore and former Mizzou football star Brock Olivo. Mr. Leutkemeyer won the race.
On the Democratic side, both state Rep. Judy Baker of Columbia and former House Speaker Steve Gaw of Holts Summit bought heavy television schedules, but Ms. Baker’s heavy support in her home city of Columbia proved decisive. The other two Democrats in the race, Marion County Presiding Commissioner Lyndon Bode of Palmyra and former state Sen. Ken Jacob of Columbia, couldn’t afford TV commercials and fell out of the running.
