Where is Osama bin Laden?

An interview with an anonymous senior military analyst by NBC’s Robert Windrem explodes many of the media myths.

A “Western military analyst” was asked earlier this month about reports that Osama Bin Laden was seen on the slopes of K2, the world’s second highest mountain on the Pakistan-China border, or in the Khost Province of Afghanistan.

His response was stunning in both its honesty and its frustration.

“We don’t have a clue where he is or even may be,” the Western analyst said. “We have had NO credible intelligence on OBL since 2001. All the rest is rumor and rubbish either whipped up by the media or churned out in the power corridors of western capitals.”

In fact, say U.S. officials, the last time U.S. operatives saw Osama Bin Laden–other than in his own videos–was in the famous Predator video shot in August 2000 where he is seen walking with a security contingent near his compound at Tarnak Farms in eastern Afghanistan.  The Predators had not been armed yet. 
 
The last time the U.S. heard Osama Bin Laden was at the battle for Tora Bora, when an NSA operative overhead him giving orders on a frequency not normally monitored and not recorded.  There were some initial concerns about the identification but the agency later learned from other sources and materials that indeed that had been him. 

But that unfortunately is it. 

The interview goes through a series of popular questions people have about Osama bin Laden. Among the more interesting:

Where does he live? 
Not in caves.  The general belief, gleaned from interrogations of his compatriots, is that Bin Laden lives in one of the many mud-walled compounds that can be found along the border with Pakistan and Afghanistan.  If you fly in a chopper, you will see them–large multi-walled buildings that are continually expanded. 

How often does he move? 
Bin Laden is NOT believed to move that often, either. He does not normally change locations every night or even very frequently. He is believed to stay long periods of time–months in some instances–in one place.  In some cases, al-Qaida security personnel have married into local tribes and clans, making them part of the extended family and giving Bin Laden and others additional protection. When he does move, it is not with a large convoy of trucks…The latest information–and it is not current–is that he moves on motorbikes.  One reason is that cars and trucks can be spotted by the roving “J-Stars” aircraft.  Motorbikes cannot be as easily seen.

How is his health?
As for his health, he is 50 years old, turning 51 (according to the best estimates) in July.  He does NOT have kidney failure and does NOT need dialysis.

Who is the next most important leader?
The U.S. has deliberately put a high priority on taking out al-Qaida’s Number Threes, killing or capturing five of them since September 11.  They are the directors of international operations, the men who would organize attacks against the United States and United Kingdom. The big prize in each takedown are the computer hard drives, phonebooks and notebooks. To maintain operational security, al-Qaida requires that new courier and computer networks be formed. This obviously slows down planning.  Moreover, the U.S. believes such takedowns are one of the few things that can push OBL’s security team to pick up and move.  The hope is that U.S. spy planes see some of that movement.

In other bin Laden-related news, Pakistan promises to hit Osama bin Laden if it finds him. Well, that’s reassuring.

The most recent messages from bin Laden can be found in translation here. In it, al-Qaeda seems to be re-focusing their efforts on the “liberation of Palestine” after suffering crushing setbacks around the world, especially in Saudi Arabia and Iraq, and facing a massive drop in support for their movement in the Muslim world. Targeting Israel is most likely an effort by al-Qaeda to try to rehabilitate their badly tarnished image, hoping it will be a more popular strategy that will capitalize on the high levels of hostility towards Israel already present in most Muslim societies, as well as take the focus off al-Qaeda’s record of killing Muslims in terror operations.

These developments have prompted Israeli intelligence officials to warn that al-Qaeda may strike their country in the near future. While railing against the “Zionist occupier” in nearly every video and press release, to date al-Qaeda has never carried out an attack against Israel.