With a cease-fire deal between Russia and Georgia progressing, here’s a look at some reactions to the strategic and geopolitical consequences that could come as a result of this conflict.

The Wall Street Journal’s Garry Kasparov wrote today that the West’s appeasement had “fueled Putin’s sense of impunity.” He argued that while Western Europe cozied up to Moscow, Putin faced no serious criticism or opposition as he systematically dismantled Russia’s democratic institutions and reverted to a de-facto “KGB dictatorship.” According to Kasparov, this tacit acceptance of Putin’s anti-democratic maneuvering by Europe emboldened Putin, who realized that Europe valued safeguarding its energy supply over any commitment to defend freedom, democracy, and human rights.

Former U.S. representative to the United Nations John Bolton took a similarly dim view of the future in his op-ed in London’s Telegraph, in which he argued that “the West, collectively, failed in this crisis.”

Fear was one reaction Russia wanted to provoke, and fear it has achieved, not just in the “Near Abroad” but in the capitals of Western Europe as well.

…Moreover, Russia is now within an eyelash of dominating the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, the only route out of the Caspian Sea region not now controlled by either Russia or Iran. Losing this would be dramatically unhelpful if we hope for continued reductions in global petroleum prices, and energy independence from unfriendly, or potentially unfriendly, states.

As for the future, Bolton believes that Russia will continue to move to “fill the gap” between Russia and NATO members:

First, Russia has made it clear that it will not accept a vacuum between its borders and the boundary line of Nato membership. Since the Warsaw Pact and the Soviet Union collapsed, this has been a central question affecting successive Nato membership decisions, with the fear that nations in the “gap” between Nato and Russia would actually be more at risk of Russian aggression than if they joined Nato.

By its actions in Georgia, Russia has made clear that its long-range objective is to fill that “gap” if we do not.

Bolton also argued that taking a firmer stand against Russia is not “provocation” but rather absolutely necessary to show Russia that such aggressive behavior “will result in costs that they will not want to bear.”

But perhaps the backlash of negative consequences for Russia has already begun. Ukraine (a nation experts worry could be next in Moscow’s military cross-hairs and which harshly criticized Russia’s invasion of Georgia) allows the Russian Black Sea fleet to operate out of the Crimean Crimean port of Sevastopol, based on a lease agreement with Russia. The lease expires in 2017, and Ukraine has indicated it is very unlikely to agree to renew the lease.

Yesterday, Ukraine announced that Russia must now seek official permission for any future movements of its warships based out of Sevastopol, despite Moscow’s objections and insistence that it will ignore the requirement.

Supporters of NATO membership for Ukraine argue that without the official protection of the alliance, it is only a matter of time before Russia simply invades Ukraine and annexes the Crimea in order to keep Sevastopol — without which it would most likely be unable to maintain its fleet in the Black Sea or project naval power into the Mediterranean.

Most dramatically, Poland (a nation that has also come out strongly in support of Georgia) announced an agreement with the United States to allow the U.S. to base components of a missile defense shield in that country. A similar agreement on missile interceptors was already reached between the U.S. and the Czech Republic earlier this year, but the deal has yet to be ratified.

Russia has strongly opposed any stationing of missile defense systems in any former Soviet-controlled nations, which it claims are “on Moscow’s doorstep,” and are a direct threat to Russian security. Matt Welch wryly observes that it must be a “thousand-mile doorstep,” considering the distance between the Czech Republic and Moscow.

Russian defense officials have predictably reacted to Poland’s announcement by saying the country was “100 percent exposing itself to a Russian strike.”

**UPDATE: The Cato Institute’s Andrei Illarionov has more analytical bullet-points here. Among his conclusions:

The war once again confirmed the correctness of the most important principles of the moral conduct of Russian citizens in relation to the current authorities in the country: Don’t believe. Don’t fear. Don’t ask. And don’t cooperate.