It was a case of ironic timing that seemed almost surreal: On the very same day that the awe-inspiring opening ceremony of the Beijing Olympic games was supposed to announce in spectacular fashion the start of an athletic competition symbolizing the unity and brotherhood of all nations, Russia and the Republic of Georgia went to war.

There are few regions in the world more complex than the Caucasus. Sandwiched between the Caspian and Black Seas, the Caucasus has for hundreds of years been the site of bloody ethnic and cultural conflict. Conquered and dominated by Russia and the Soviet Union for most of the past two centuries, the ancient, suppressed animosities between the region’s staggering conglomeration of ethnic groups have exploded into armed conflict in the past two decades.

Most of the attention is traditionally focused on the intractable and existential hostilities between neighboring Christian Armenia and Muslim Azerbaijan, but Georgia, the other Caucasus nation to gain its independence following the breakup of the Soviet Union, is no stranger to ethnic strife, political instability, and civil war.

Like much of the surrounding area, Georgia is home to many ethnic enclaves, many of which have in the past been granted a high level of autonomy by the central government based in the capital of Tbilisi. At issue in the present conflict are the restive northern provinces of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, both of which border Russia.

Background

Home to a population of just 70,000, South Ossetia, whose ethnic Ossetian majority has long sought independence, is divided by an international border from its Ossetian brethren in the Russian province of North Ossetia. They have a unique language and cultural identity different from the Georgian majority to the south. The province is also home to a large number of both Georgians (30 percent) and also a small Russian minority.

South Ossetia was granted a large degree of autonomy under the Soviet Union, and tried to declare independence along with Georgia in 1990, but that claim was firmly rejected by the new Georgian government, leading to a bloody civil war that lasted two years. A cease-fire agreement ended the conflict in 1992. The international community has not recognized South Ossetia’s self-declared independence.

Timeline

The current clash between Georgia and Russia has been building for several months. After NATO expressed interest in extending membership to Ukraine and Georgia — a move strongly opposed by Russia, which resents any outside “meddling” in former satellite nations, which it refers to as its “near abroad” and subject to Russia’s exclusive sphere of influence — Russia responded in by establishing even stronger ties with the separatist forces in South Ossetia and Abkhazia (which borders the Black Sea).

Russia began moving troops into Abkhazia in late April to counter what it said was an impending attack by Georgian forces to regain control of the province. In early July, Russian fighter jets flew missions into Georgian airspace over South Ossetia in order to “cool hot heads in Tbilisi.” Georgia recalled its ambassador from Moscow in protest.

On August 4, the Georgian military initiated operations intended to curb the separatist South Ossetian rebel forces and bring the region back firmly under Georgian control. Russia declared that Georgia had been using “excessive force” against the province. On August 8, Russian forces launched an invasion of South Ossetia to repel the Georgian attack. Russian President Dmitri Medvedev claimed the goal of the operation was to “defend Russian compatriots” under attack in South Ossetia.

Many people in South Ossetia do indeed carry Russian passports — though this is the result of a deliberate strategy by the Russian government, which has been freely giving out Russian passports and offering citizenship to residents in both South Ossetia and Abkhazia in order to diminish the power of Tbilisi.

(The yellow line on the mountains in the background is the border with Russia.)

After three days of intense fighting against Russian and Ossetian separatist forces in the South Ossetian capital of Tskhinvali, the overwhelmingly outmached and outgunned Georgian troops withdrew from the province, and the Georgian president yesterday announced that his country was observing a cease-fire in South Ossetia. Russian military spokesman rejected the cease-fire, saying that Georgian forces were still fighting. Russian military operations have continued, with aeriel bombings pushing further south into Georgia, even hitting the international airport on the outskirts of Tbilisi.

Meanwhile, the Russians poured tanks, personnel carriers, and reinforcements into Abkhazia in order to “deter” a Georgian offensive there. Yesterday, Russian forces in Abkhazia delivered an ultimatum to Georgian forces near the border with Abkhazia: disarm or be attacked. Georgia of course refused.

Today, Russian forces have opened up a second front, advancing into Georgian territory from Abkhazia, seizing a Georgian military base and moving into the town of Senaki, well inside Georgia. Russian commanders say the move is intended to “prevent Georgian forces from regrouping to carry out new attacks.”

Russian military sources are reporting that over 2,000 people have been killed so far as a result of the conflict. Tens of thousands of both Georgians and Ossetians have fled. The U.S. and international community is exerting strong pressure on Russia to immediately end military operations inside Georgia and is attempting to negotiate a cease-fire.

Strategic importance

Following the peaceful 2003 “Rose Revolution,” in which Eduard Shevardnadze, the authoritarian Russian puppet who had ruled Georgia since 1992, was replaced by the pro-Western, democratically-elected Mikheil Saakashvili, Georgia has developed a close relationship with the U.S. The U.S. has helped modernize and train the Georgian military, and Georgia contributed 2,000 troops to the coalition presence in Iraq (the third-largest contingent after the U.S. and Britain). President Saakashvili has been one of the few leaders in the region bold enough to stand up to Moscow’s influence.

After the Russian invasion began on Friday, U.S. military C-130 transport planes immediately began flying Georgian troops home from Iraq so they could defend their country. Putin was not pleased.

The conflict is also important due to the threat to a major oil pipeline (known as the BTC pipeline, completed in 2005) that traverses the region, delivering Caspian Sea oil to the Mediterranean, which is then transported to Western Europe. It is one of the few sources of crude in the region not controlled by Russia.

By invading Georgia, Russia is seeking not only to preserve its dominance in the region by making Georgian membership in NATO unattractive, but is also attempting to diminish U.S. influence in what it sees as its “backyard.” A crushing defeat for Georgia would accomplish that goal, and send a strong message to other former Soviet satellites: align with the United States and face the consequences. London Times editor Michael Evans says Putin had just been waiting for Saakashvili to give him an excuse.

The stakes for the future of U.S. relations with Russia’s neighbors could hardly be higher. The situation has been compared in strategic importance to the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and the Soviet blockade of West Berlin. Thus far, however, the U.S. response has been far weaker than in those historical cases.

What could happen

Russian president Medvedev today announced that the “large part” of Russian military operations in Georgia were nearly over. Nevertheless, President Saakashvili claims that Russia’s ultimate aim is to topple his government and replace him with a pro-Russian puppet.

The Russian military’s aggressive and disproportionate moves — clearly beyond what would be required to simply expel Georgian forces from South Ossetia — and opening of a second front in Abkhazia lends credence to the fear of a massive ground invasion to overthrow the Georgian government.

The conflict has caused Moscow’s relations with both the U.S. and the EU to worsen considerably.

The options for the U.S. are limited — obviously, the U.S. wants to avoid provoking or escalating a direct confrontation with Russia, while at the same time not wanting to send the message that we will abandon a close ally when the going gets tough. The U.S. has joined other nations in calling for an immediate cease-fire. U.S. and Russian representatives traded heated accusations at the UN.

Conservative commentator Bill Kristol is advocating more decisive U.S. action to support Georgia, while liberal commentator Andrew Sullivan says a stronger, more aggressive Russia is simply a fact of the new “multipolar world” and that the Georgians were “foolish” to turn to the West for help in the first place.

**UPDATE: More on the geopolitics of this conflict from StrategyPage.

**UPDATE 2: Other former Soviet satellites are worried that the invasion of Georgia might be a precedent for future Russian military incursions to regain control over the Soviet-era empire. Poland, backed by other nervous Baltic nations, has called for an emergency EU summit to discuss the conflict in South Ossetia.

On the other hand, a big downside for Russia could be that this invasion pushes Eastern European nations like Poland to follow the Czech Republic and allow U.S. missile defense systems on their soil (the U.S.-Czech agreement, which still needs to be ratified, was signed last month; similar negotiations with Poland are still underway). Or it could scare them into capitulating and accepting Russian domination.

**UPDATE 3: Russia’s master plan: topple the Saakashvili government, install a pro-Moscow regime, and use Russia’s continuing troop presence inside Georgian territory to keep Georgia under Moscow’s thumb. This could be done either directly via military force, or with a more roundabout but equally effective approach:

• The Investigative Committee convened by Dmitrii Medvedev on Putin’s “suggestion” has reported that it will investigate crimes committed by Georgian troops under the articles for mass murder in the Russian Federation law code.

• If, as reports suggest, Russian forces have occupied Zugdidi, Senaki, and Gori, then they have not only invaded Georgia in violation of any possible international legal justification, but have also taken possession of Georgia’s only means of communication with the Western World. If the Russians hold Gori, then Georgia’s only land-sea lines of communication run through Azerbaijan to the Caspian Sea or along secondary, mountain roads to Batumi and/or Turkey.

• If the Investigative Committee proceeds as seems likely, it will most probably indict Saakashvili and other members of the Georgian government for crimes committed under Russian law, and Russian can then presumably demand their extradition in exchange for opening the Tbilisi-Poti road.

• Alternatively, Russian forces are in an excellent position to take Georgia if they chose to do so.

• The likeliest outcome at this stage is that Moscow insists on the departure of Saakashvili and other high members of the Georgian government from power and from the country, and then returns to its positions in South Ossetia and Abkhazia with significantly increased force presence. In that scenario, Georgia will be helplessly under Russian domination.