Why the Russia-Georgia conflict matters
It was a case of ironic timing that seemed almost surreal: On the very same day that the awe-inspiring opening ceremony of the Beijing Olympic games was supposed to announce in spectacular fashion the start of an athletic competition symbolizing the unity and brotherhood of all nations, Russia and the Republic of Georgia went to war.
There are few regions in the world more complex than the Caucasus. Sandwiched between the Caspian and Black Seas, the Caucasus has for hundreds of years been the site of bloody ethnic and cultural conflict. Conquered and dominated by Russia and the Soviet Union for most of the past two centuries, the ancient, suppressed animosities between the region’s staggering conglomeration of ethnic groups have exploded into armed conflict in the past two decades.
Most of the attention is traditionally focused on the intractable and existential hostilities between neighboring Christian Armenia and Muslim Azerbaijan, but Georgia, the other Caucasus nation to gain its independence following the breakup of the Soviet Union, is no stranger to ethnic strife, political instability, and civil war.
Like much of the surrounding area, Georgia is home to many ethnic enclaves, many of which have in the past been granted a high level of autonomy by the central government based in the capital of Tbilisi. At issue in the present conflict are the restive northern provinces of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, both of which border Russia.
Background
Home to a population of just 70,000, South Ossetia, whose ethnic Ossetian majority has long sought independence, is divided by an international border from its Ossetian brethren in the Russian province of North Ossetia. They have a unique language and cultural identity different from the Georgian majority to the south. The province is also home to a large number of both Georgians (30 percent) and also a small Russian minority.
South Ossetia was granted a large degree of autonomy under the Soviet Union, and tried to declare independence along with Georgia in 1990, but that claim was firmly rejected by the new Georgian government, leading to a bloody civil war that lasted two years. A cease-fire agreement ended the conflict in 1992. The international community has not recognized South Ossetia’s self-declared independence.
Timeline
The current clash between Georgia and Russia has been building for several months. After NATO expressed interest in extending membership to Ukraine and Georgia — a move strongly opposed by Russia, which resents any outside “meddling” in former satellite nations, which it refers to as its “near abroad” and subject to Russia’s exclusive sphere of influence — Russia responded in by establishing even stronger ties with the separatist forces in South Ossetia and Abkhazia (which borders the Black Sea).
Russia began moving troops into Abkhazia in late April to counter what it said was an impending attack by Georgian forces to regain control of the province. In early July, Russian fighter jets flew missions into Georgian airspace over South Ossetia in order to “cool hot heads in Tbilisi.” Georgia recalled its ambassador from Moscow in protest.
On August 4, the Georgian military initiated operations intended to curb the separatist South Ossetian rebel forces and bring the region back firmly under Georgian control. Russia declared that Georgia had been using “excessive force” against the province. On August 8, Russian forces launched an invasion of South Ossetia to repel the Georgian attack. Russian President Dmitri Medvedev claimed the goal of the operation was to “defend Russian compatriots” under attack in South Ossetia.
Many people in South Ossetia do indeed carry Russian passports — though this is the result of a deliberate strategy by the Russian government, which has been freely giving out Russian passports and offering citizenship to residents in both South Ossetia and Abkhazia in order to diminish the power of Tbilisi.
(The yellow line on the mountains in the background is the border with Russia.)
After three days of intense fighting against Russian and Ossetian separatist forces in the South Ossetian capital of Tskhinvali, the overwhelmingly outmached and outgunned Georgian troops withdrew from the province, and the Georgian president yesterday announced that his country was observing a cease-fire in South Ossetia. Russian military spokesman rejected the cease-fire, saying that Georgian forces were still fighting. Russian military operations have continued, with aeriel bombings pushing further south into Georgia, even hitting the international airport on the outskirts of Tbilisi.
Meanwhile, the Russians poured tanks, personnel carriers, and reinforcements into Abkhazia in order to “deter” a Georgian offensive there. Yesterday, Russian forces in Abkhazia delivered an ultimatum to Georgian forces near the border with Abkhazia: disarm or be attacked. Georgia of course refused.
Today, Russian forces have opened up a second front, advancing into Georgian territory from Abkhazia, seizing a Georgian military base and moving into the town of Senaki, well inside Georgia. Russian commanders say the move is intended to “prevent Georgian forces from regrouping to carry out new attacks.”
Russian military sources are reporting that over 2,000 people have been killed so far as a result of the conflict. Tens of thousands of both Georgians and Ossetians have fled. The U.S. and international community is exerting strong pressure on Russia to immediately end military operations inside Georgia and is attempting to negotiate a cease-fire.
Strategic importance
Following the peaceful 2003 “Rose Revolution,” in which Eduard Shevardnadze, the authoritarian Russian puppet who had ruled Georgia since 1992, was replaced by the pro-Western, democratically-elected Mikheil Saakashvili, Georgia has developed a close relationship with the U.S. The U.S. has helped modernize and train the Georgian military, and Georgia contributed 2,000 troops to the coalition presence in Iraq (the third-largest contingent after the U.S. and Britain). President Saakashvili has been one of the few leaders in the region bold enough to stand up to Moscow’s influence.
After the Russian invasion began on Friday, U.S. military C-130 transport planes immediately began flying Georgian troops home from Iraq so they could defend their country. Putin was not pleased.
The conflict is also important due to the threat to a major oil pipeline (known as the BTC pipeline, completed in 2005) that traverses the region, delivering Caspian Sea oil to the Mediterranean, which is then transported to Western Europe. It is one of the few sources of crude in the region not controlled by Russia.
By invading Georgia, Russia is seeking not only to preserve its dominance in the region by making Georgian membership in NATO unattractive, but is also attempting to diminish U.S. influence in what it sees as its “backyard.” A crushing defeat for Georgia would accomplish that goal, and send a strong message to other former Soviet satellites: align with the United States and face the consequences. London Times editor Michael Evans says Putin had just been waiting for Saakashvili to give him an excuse.
The stakes for the future of U.S. relations with Russia’s neighbors could hardly be higher. The situation has been compared in strategic importance to the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and the Soviet blockade of West Berlin. Thus far, however, the U.S. response has been far weaker than in those historical cases.
What could happen
Russian president Medvedev today announced that the “large part” of Russian military operations in Georgia were nearly over. Nevertheless, President Saakashvili claims that Russia’s ultimate aim is to topple his government and replace him with a pro-Russian puppet.
The Russian military’s aggressive and disproportionate moves — clearly beyond what would be required to simply expel Georgian forces from South Ossetia — and opening of a second front in Abkhazia lends credence to the fear of a massive ground invasion to overthrow the Georgian government.
The conflict has caused Moscow’s relations with both the U.S. and the EU to worsen considerably.
The options for the U.S. are limited — obviously, the U.S. wants to avoid provoking or escalating a direct confrontation with Russia, while at the same time not wanting to send the message that we will abandon a close ally when the going gets tough. The U.S. has joined other nations in calling for an immediate cease-fire. U.S. and Russian representatives traded heated accusations at the UN.
Conservative commentator Bill Kristol is advocating more decisive U.S. action to support Georgia, while liberal commentator Andrew Sullivan says a stronger, more aggressive Russia is simply a fact of the new “multipolar world” and that the Georgians were “foolish” to turn to the West for help in the first place.
**UPDATE: More on the geopolitics of this conflict from StrategyPage.
**UPDATE 2: Other former Soviet satellites are worried that the invasion of Georgia might be a precedent for future Russian military incursions to regain control over the Soviet-era empire. Poland, backed by other nervous Baltic nations, has called for an emergency EU summit to discuss the conflict in South Ossetia.
On the other hand, a big downside for Russia could be that this invasion pushes Eastern European nations like Poland to follow the Czech Republic and allow U.S. missile defense systems on their soil (the U.S.-Czech agreement, which still needs to be ratified, was signed last month; similar negotiations with Poland are still underway). Or it could scare them into capitulating and accepting Russian domination.
**UPDATE 3: Russia’s master plan: topple the Saakashvili government, install a pro-Moscow regime, and use Russia’s continuing troop presence inside Georgian territory to keep Georgia under Moscow’s thumb. This could be done either directly via military force, or with a more roundabout but equally effective approach:
- The Investigative Committee convened by Dmitrii Medvedev on Putin’s “suggestion” has reported that it will investigate crimes committed by Georgian troops under the articles for mass murder in the Russian Federation law code.
- If, as reports suggest, Russian forces have occupied Zugdidi, Senaki, and Gori, then they have not only invaded Georgia in violation of any possible international legal justification, but have also taken possession of Georgia’s only means of communication with the Western World. If the Russians hold Gori, then Georgia’s only land-sea lines of communication run through Azerbaijan to the Caspian Sea or along secondary, mountain roads to Batumi and/or Turkey.
- If the Investigative Committee proceeds as seems likely, it will most probably indict Saakashvili and other members of the Georgian government for crimes committed under Russian law, and Russian can then presumably demand their extradition in exchange for opening the Tbilisi-Poti road.
- Alternatively, Russian forces are in an excellent position to take Georgia if they chose to do so.
- The likeliest outcome at this stage is that Moscow insists on the departure of Saakashvili and other high members of the Georgian government from power and from the country, and then returns to its positions in South Ossetia and Abkhazia with significantly increased force presence. In that scenario, Georgia will be helplessly under Russian domination.
The US is in a tough position diplomatically. We played our hand a couple months ago when we recognized the legitimacy of Kosovo as a free and independent state almost immediately after they declared their independence from Serbia. The Russians will no doubt happily point that out as a justification for their blatantly agressive “peacekeeping” efforts in Ossetia. There are significant differences however. The US is going to have to bypass the UN security council where Russian holds a veto and appeal directly to the EU and NATO for support and defense of Georgia.
Irony alert: If this were an action involving Israelis or US forces and a similar number of civilians were effected, do you think the Post and media in general would have relegated this story to the back pages? Here’s naked aggression staring us right in the face. The silence from the peace and human rights industry is deafening.
Go_Fish:
Your point about the silence from the “peace” industry is absolutely true. None of the major anti-war groups (ANSWER, CodePink, Democracy Now!, Peace Action, StopTheWar, etc.) have said anything about the Russian invasion. Apparently they’re not against all wars — just American ones.
However, it should be noted that Human Rights Watch came out with a strong denunciation of the Russian-Georgian violence on Saturday:
http://www.hrw.org/english/docs/2008/08/08/georgi19575.htm
Amnesty International’s press release was not quite as strong, but at least they said something.
http://www.amnesty.org/en/news-and-updates/news/georgia-and-russia-must-protect-civilians-south-ossetia-2008081
World nations have made it plain that they do not appreciate U.S. efforts to play policeman or lifeguard. We can’t even defend our own borders from millions of illegal invaders, so let the U.N. or the E.U. try their luck.
You may be right. This could be a taste of what the next century is going to be like with a resurgent Russia calling the shots and an increasingly irrelevant UN and EU left flapping their gums. My guess is the Europeans won’t like it very much.
Ironic, you are naive. There’s nothing ironic about it, it was all intended at this exact time obviously.
Georgia’s President appeared so certain that the U.S. would come to his defense, why? I would venture to say because he was led to believe that.
Georgia attacked first killing 1000+ Russians. Now Georgia wants to disengage? That is not how life works. Could anyone stop the U.S. from attacking Iraq and invading it? And we were not provoked at all by Iraq.
What is ironic is that Russia is now distracted with their own war, though not caused by their doing. Israel is planning on bombing Iran, perfect timing now that Russian, Iran’s alley is tied up in their own war. I smell a dirty rat with the U.S. and Israel behind it, or even Russia, to get unrest rolling and World III going in order to determine who will be the new superpower.
No one, not the U.S., Iran, Russia, or Israel are any good, may the most evil win, it seems to boil down to?
Will China side with them or us? Who are really with us? That’s the trillion-dollar question and, the U.S. is too narcissistic to see things in its real light.
The next question is, does anyone think this time that the U.S. will escape devastation from bombs being dropped on us, even though we are trying hard to appear innocent in all of this? Remember how in a moment all things can change. Iraqi’s and Russians and Georgians were one week earlier, going about their lives as usual just as we are right now, then with the wink of an eyes, all things were changed.
Furthermore, the U.S. needs to stay out of it and countries with some credibility should attempt to intervene, we have no credibility after the precedent we set when we invaded Iraq.
It is amazing how many people are willing to judge events and look no father back than the past week. The area where the conflict began is occupied by 30% Georgian people. If you look back to Oct and Nov 2006 you will learn that the Institute of Peace and Democracy and Development assessed the situation as based on emotions, stating that “Russia is having a difficult time dealing with Georgias pro Werstern orientation, but it’s radical measures of dealing with the situation only serve to further alienate Georgia. The conflict as reported in the Russian newspapers between Oct 25 and Nov 5 2006 report Moscows anger at the UN’s consideration to replace Russian Peacekeepers with international peacekeepers. Russians Defense Minister is quoted as saying we will find political ways to prevent such as scenario as it will interfere with our plans within the region. Officials from the disputed areas voiced concerns regarding the legitamacy of peacekeepers from countries affected by the status of these territories. In Nov 2006, it was reported that although Georgia had paid 110 per Natural Gas unit since the 1st of the year the price was set to raise the price of gas to 230 the highest rate of all CSI countries. Geogia’s prime minister reports Russia stopping exports and some imports at the border. Russia has economically attempted to deprive Georgia while handing out passports and documents and allowing generous trade and free staples to enter the disputed areas. Several people who reported they were confused as to why they had recieved documents such as passports or Russian other documents when they reported having no desire to return to Russia, as this was their home not Russia. They stated they did appreciate Russian Generosity They reported a peaceful existance and interelatedness with their neighboring Georgians. Reporter’s being excorted through the region do remark on a marked difference in the economic status and activity between villages within only a few miles of each other. People in the Russian occupied areas interviewed at the University affected seemed reluctant to speak with reporters about the conflict while talking freely about their university and students and classes. RReporters stated they felt those willing to talk to them were noticeably self censoring themselves.
Unsure why Georgia would attack while their troups were away, or without the assurances of support. Are we sure we are seeing everything. It sounds like Russia has been the agressor even by these 2006 reports printed in Russian Newspapers. See http://www.cavcaz.com or global voice. J Louis Oklahoma
Tell me, D., what countries have “credibility” in your eyes? You imply that the US has to be provoked to go to war. You need to revisit history to look at the unprovoked attacks against our planes that were enforcing the no-fly zone. Also, I don’t remember Serbia provoking us when Clinton decided to bomb them back to the stoneage. Or perhaps you may not remember that Germany did not attack us leading up to WWII?
So much for GW “special relationship” with Putin.
Talk about a Paper Tiger, GW can dish it out against a third world power like Iraq but just can’t seem to get a handle on what the Russians might be doing, or might have planned.
His administration is so clueless about almost every situation from how to fight a war and then win the peace to cleaning up after a hurricane. I will admit though that he does know how to make money for his friends. Did you notice the report on how the number of people working for private contractors in Iraq is almost equal to the number of people who are actual government employees? Some of you probably even think we’re saving money by doing that, but Blackwater isn’t in business to save money, just make it.
Anybody want four more years of the same mess? Yes the situation in that area of the world is fraught with danger, but so was Iraq and that “other war” where we are doing so well. Unfortunately, our current leadership is to easily distracted by money and the need for their business friends to have it easy. 911 happened well after GW and his buds took over, but he was to busy greasing the road for his business friends to be distracted by a guy with an Arab name. And what I really liked were the Republicans who criticized Clinton for trying to get him. At least Bill made an effort while he was helping his friends. GW’s problem was helping his friends make money instead of taking care of the country’s business.
By the way, did you notice who was at the Olympics with GW while his country was invading another country? I’m sure GW thought Putin was there to celebrate the Olympic spirit. In the old days, they use to stop the wars for the Olympics, not use them as a cover, but GW has this “special relationship” with Putin.
This is sad - what’s happening in Georgia. Ethnic based fighting. I wonder what strategic importance these two former ASSR’s hold that Russia wants or reasons they don’t want them independent - perhaps Russia is doing Georgia’s dirty work by going in a squelching this call for independence. Not surprised that US has no involvement yet, most Americans think Georgia is their own Southern State. The US has had no important economic, social or political ties to that region as far as I can remember.
This is not about ethnic cleasing, its about Russia becoming the new “Super-Power”.
It is about the oil-pipelines that run through Georgia allowing Western Europe to bi-pass Russia.
Now that America has caused its own destruction to come because it is so intent on going down the same path, unwilling to turn away from doing the same old, same old.
By the way, Iran is not the threat to Israel, but Russia is. It is Russia who will come against Israel it is all written and prophesied in the Holy Scriptures.
America set the precedent in Iraq for this type of behavior that we are seeing from Russia. No other country truly cares what the U.S. thinks or where the U.S. stands because of our example and of our waeken economic condition. We must acknowlede Russia’s power and our weak state. Really what can America do about Russia and what other countrie sin their right mind would dare come against Russia. What country is powerful enough? Any country who could possibly be will side with Russia, no what?
Very tough position for all of Europe! Once again it boils down to oil for the United States. With the pipeline passing thru Georgia from Turkey if this is shutdown for an extended period of time or the Russians gain control of Georgia prices regain their $4 plus status once again. France, Germany and the other NATO nations must be ready to ante up troops to place on Georgian soil and see if Russia blinks. If they do then they (NATO) stay to ensure Russia stays out, if Russia ups the ante then the United States must decide from there where it goes. We currently have 54,000 troops in Germany with equipment trained to fight in this type of terrain. Along with several Naval battle groups close to the area. Now what will Tehran do? What will Beijing do? The United States and the EU cannot allow Russia to retake it’s ex satellite states again. Saakashvili took a chance that Russia would fear US retaliation that didn’t come. Of course Putin has owned Bush since day one anyways. What are your thoughts out there; can Obama or McCain handle Putin?