Monday editorial: Trek for better living
A complete census of the United States occurs once every decade, but waves of other data roll in during the off years, providing updated snapshots of who and where we are, what we’re doing and how we’re changing as a nation.
A recent Post-Dispatch story by Doug Moore and Jaimi Dowdell provides a case in point: “White flight in St. Louis may be over,” read the lead. And, sure enough, interim numbers from the Census Bureau indicate that the city of St. Louis had a net gain of 8,224 white residents between 2000 and 2007. The story included comments from a scholar at the Brookings Institution who noted that St. Louis’ recent experience has been mirrored on a larger scale in cities such as Washington, D.C., and Atlanta.
But it’s risky to draw broad conclusions from isolated statistics. For example, St. Louis had a net loss of 5,773 black residents during the same period. St. Louis County, meanwhile, gained 22,014 black residents and lost 53,400 white residents. To the northwest, St. Charles County counted 46,233 new white residents, but it also added 6,208 black residents — an increase of more than 75 percent since 2000.
Do these shifts tell us anything about race in our region?
A spokesman for St. Louis County Executive Charles Dooley doesn’t think so. “These tens of thousands of people are making their decisions for any number of reasons,” he told the reporters.
That seems right — and the data bear out the idea that multiple factors are in play.
At our request, Will Winter, a researcher at UMSL’s Public Policy Research Center took a preliminary cut at the numbers, adding age to the formula. His observations:
• The net loss of black residents in St. Louis and the net gain of blacks in St. Louis County are most pronounced among kids and teenagers and adults aged 20 to 54, admittedly a wide spread.
• The number of white St. Louis residents aged 20 to 54 has held fairly steady, while the number of teens and children has grown.
At this level of detail, it’s difficult to say with certainty what the data indicate, but some possibilities come to mind:
For some black families with children in St. Louis, a soft real estate market and public school systems that are more stable may be drawing them to newly affordable homes in St. Louis County.
In the city, meanwhile, the number of white families holding steady as the number of teens and kids increases might suggest that families no longer reflexively flee the city when they have children or when their children reach school age.
The increase in the number of older city residents could confirm what has been noted anecdotally: Empty nesters are gravitating to those city districts that are safe, convenient and lively.
What we don’t know yet, of course, is what impact new issues — rising energy costs, falling wages, a tightening credit market, mass-transit options, employment cutbacks, business relocations — could have on housing patterns.
But the new census data suggest that movement around the St. Louis region today may have more to do with people searching for better lives and less to do with racial fears and stereotypes. If so, these population shifts are a hopeful sign.


Considering all these new stats and the fact that families who can are moving to the county because of better schools, considering that Sen. Obama and others are telling us we must re-think our living and energy use, doesn’t this beg the question as to why are we still spending precious dollars on fuel in busing kids to the county rather than improving the St. Louis schools. Where am I wrong?
Actually, there are much more tangible explanations than our non-analytical county executive came up with:
1. The city’s white population is growing because of Bosnians. And a few loft buyers. But mostly Bosnians. Whites don’t flee the city because they can choose parochial or private schools, not because they have suddenly deemed the SLPS acceptable.
2. The city is losing black residents because the black areas continue to become uninhabitable. Many people will stay through a few violent crimes. But when half your street is boarded up, and you lose track of the shootings in your nabe, it’s time to move - and not to the next street over, either.
As far as racial fears and stereotypes go … well, if you listen to a police scanner in north county, you’ll see that it isn’t “fears and stereotypes” but in fact, reality. While crime is constant in some areas, you’re about as likely to be the victim of violent crime at the hands of a white criminal in north county as you are to be killed by a semi truck on highway 40.