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02.10.2009 9:01 pm

Bankers’ last chance: Son of TARP

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Is second time the charm? (Paul J. Richards/AFP/Getty)

Tim Geithner: Is second time the charm? (Paul J. Richards/AFP/Getty)

The American public rightly is skeptical about the way the first $350 billion in Troubled Assets Relief Program funds were spent. Now comes the Obama administration with a new name for the second half of TARP spending — it’s part of a much grander Financial Stability Program — and a vow to increase its transparency and accountability.

Good steps, sure, but the $64 question — which actually could be a $2 trillion question — is will it work?

Will a public-private partnership to buy toxic assets directly from banks work better than throwing money at the banks and hoping they spend it wisely? For that matter, will the “private” half of the public-private partnership show up?

How will these assets — largely credit obligations on mortgage securities — be valued? The original mortgages have been monetized, securitized and tranched over and over again, making it almost impossible to determine what they’re worth. If the Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve, which will manage the program, pay too much for them, the taxpayers might never see a return. If Treasury and the Fed pay too little, banks may choose to hold onto them, for fear of having to raise too much capital to offset their losses.

Details of the new plan were in short supply on Tuesday, when Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner announced the new program. Wall Street’s first reaction was negative with the Dow Jones industrial average closing down 382 points (4.6 percent) at 7,888.

Best guess:
Treasury and Fed will overpay, at least at first, and critics won’t be much happier with Son of TARP than they were with TARP. But there’s really no way to avoid the problem. The government simply must get the credit markets thawed, and the best way to do that is to get all those lousy assets off banks’ balance sheets.

But that doesn’t immediately address those at the bottom of the food chain, homeowners stuck with mortgages they can’t pay. On Tuesday, President Barack Obama pitched his economic stimulus plan in Fort Myers, seat of Lee County, Fla., which has a 12 percent foreclosure rate, the highest in the nation.

The president said the $838 billion stimulus plan, passed by the Senate 61-37 as he arrived in Florida, combined with the Financial Stability Plan and other measures announced by Mr. Geithner, could help break the “vicious cycle” of the recession.

We certainly hope so. But Son of TARP may suffer, albeit in a lesser degree than TARP, from a serious deficiency: Too much dependence on a banking industry whose interests may not precisely coincide with the public’s. We would like to have seen government insist on a bigger role, rather than continuing to rely on the good offices of an industry that helped to create this crisis.

Some of Mr. Obama’s aides reportedly wanted to use a stick instead of a carrot, but Mr. Geithner — the former chairman of the New York Fed — argued that a harder line would be counterproductive. He believes the government’s proper role is to “help leverage private capital to help get private markets working again.”

So in addition to using the Fed’s balance sheet to take bad loans off bankers’ books — in effect, financing it with debt — the Treasury will spend most of the funds remaining from the original TARP program to unfreeze the market for commercial paper, car loans, student loans and credit card debt. A third component, a $50 billion mortgage-relief program, is set for announcement next week.

Mr. Obama and Mr. Geithner hope accountability rules and transparency — transactions will made public at FinancialStability.gov — will keep this round of spending from disappearing into a black hole.

But the burden now falls on financial industry executives: Mr. Obama and Mr. Geithner have given them one last shot. They can either go along with the program or risk the kind of public outrage that would begin the nationalization of banks. For that is surely the next step.

6 comments

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FDR tried to buy his way out of the Great Depression. It took WW II to get the world economy moving again. Now Bush and Obama dare to repeat history. What a bunch of idiots.

Obama would love to nationalize the banks and anything else he can get his little hands on, and that may be why we are handing out the second 350 billion with as little ovesight as the first batch…he wants it to fail.

Why would a bank writing off billions of dollars in bad debt and investments care what happens to Joe Sixpack down the street? They won’t, but they will care if the next big bank wants to take them over since they are losing money.

Obama was supposed to be better than this…

— Tim
10:42 pm February 10th, 2009

Just an observation here but every time the govt has tried to thaw the markets it has just ended up creating more panic. The markets hate panic and uncertainty. That was evident today when the market tanked again. Some smart person is going to put a government announcement and a market tank together and make a killing shorting stocks.

So Geithner announces another bazillion bucks to try to get the consumer back in debt and spending beyond their means. What’s next when this fails to work as designed? Add more to that bacon wrapped turd called the stimulus? People can blame the banks all they want but they aren’t going to lend until they see some confidence in the markets along with companies not laying off workers. Oh, and that TARP money, I think the banks who received the funds will just give it back when they find out how the govt will want to come in and run their business. No amount of money is worth having the govt looking over your shoulder, setting salaries, bonuses and the like. What happens when the banks don’t want the government’s help and would rather go it alone?

Looking back we’d be thru this if they would have just let things run their course by allowing the companies that needed to go get wiped out and letting the strong ones carry on. But no, govt’s efforts to “do something” has resulted once again in “done nothing” Buckle up people, its gonna be a few years before this gets worked out.

— AJ
10:53 pm February 10th, 2009

The YTD high for Lee stock was $12.77, today’s price is 31 cents. So, if you invested $50,000 at the peak, it would be worth $1,200 today. Keep in mind that these are the people giving economic advice here.

— Nick Kasoff
10:14 am February 11th, 2009

Nick,

Point taken and agreed with.

— AJ
4:09 pm February 11th, 2009

Any banker who watched a minute of that charade on C-span with Barney Frank and the other clowns in the House and still takes any TARP money has to be out of his friggin’ mind. Who in right mind would want those clowns as shareholders, let alone on your Board telling you how to run a business. Any bank with TARP money is going to look like your local DMV office…. Disinterested service providers and high prices. Folks, this crisis is one of a Congress creation , and they are pushing off the blame like Nero as Rome burned. This fool, who would have banks nationalized, has no idea of the kind of outrage should it ever happen.

— tartan
2:45 pm February 12th, 2009

This is EXACTLY the kind of insane thinking that driveled down to the editorial page that caused me to cancel that PD rag.

— tartan
2:48 pm February 12th, 2009