There are 11 states with governor’s seats up for grabs this election cycle:

According to one (conservative pundit’s) analysis, two are safe for Republicans, two lean Republican, three lean Democratic, and one is safely in the Democratic column. The remaining three races are toss-ups — and Missouri is one of them.

Missouri: Incumbent Republican Blunt helped his party immensely by deciding not to run. It remains no small challenge, however, for either of the August 5 primary candidates, U.S. Rep. Kenny Hulshof or State Treasurer Sarah Steelman, to hold the Missouri governorship against Democrat Jay Nixon, the current attorney general. Nixon has more cash and will benefit from a big Obama investment in voter registration and turnout in this swing state. Indeed, Obama made two visits to Missouri just during the week of July 4. That’s why those pushing the aforementioned Republican Governors Association strategy so often talk about Missouri, where an influx of out-of-state resources could help Republicans up and down the ballot.

Hulshof and Steelman are both running for governor as fiscal and social conservatives, but their approaches are vastly different. Hulshof is the candidate of the state GOP apparatus and the more polished politician. Steelman is rougher around the edges but admirably willing to buck the establishment. She opposes an ethanol mandate that Blunt championed and both Hulshof and Nixon support. She’s also blasted Hulshof for his congressional votes on federal budgets and earmarks, promising not to bring “Washington values” to Jefferson City. Not hard to figure out that remark’s target, since the Democrat Nixon has been AG in Jefferson City since 1993. In the fall, St. Louis and Kansas City will favor Nixon, and the GOP nominee will win the rural swath between them. But what of the suburbs? It’s a toss-up.

The map (as of now) looks like this:

More analysis of each race can be found at the link.