A key game to watch this weekend is Notre Dame at Navy because of the implications it could have on the Gator Bowl and the domino effect to the Big 12 and Missouri for post-season play.

The Gator Bowl is in the third-year of a four-year deal with the Big 12 and Big East/Notre Dame to select an opponent for an ACC team. The Gator is committed to having a Big 12 team twice in the four-year period. Last year, the Gator chose Texas Tech so the bowl will need to pick a Big 12 team either this year or next.

Most of the current speculation has the Gator wanting Notre Dame this year. The Irish count as a Big East team for bowls when they don’t make a BCS game.

But after last week’s loss to Boston College, Notre Dame is 5-4 with games remaining against Navy, Syracuse and Southern Cal. That’s why this week’s game is key for the Gator. Beat Navy and the Irish probably finish 7-5. Lose and there’s a good chance at 6-6. (The Irish have lost 15 straight to teams that ended the season with winning records. Navy is 6-3.)

So that’s the potential question, how much of a television draw would a 6-6 Notre Dame team be compared to a Big 12 team?

If the Gator were to go Big 12, it gets to pick fourth after the Cotton and Holiday although the three will work together to get the most attractive matchup for each game (meaning TV and ticket sales.)

A Gator Bowl official told the Post-Dispatch this week that the Big 12 is extra attractive this season so it’s probably too early to write the Big 12 completely out of the Gator picture.

If the Gator were to pass on Notre Dame (or a Big East team such as Cincy, Pitt or West Virginia), how the Big 12 could go:

BCS automatic: Winner of Big 12 title game to Fiesta or national title game.

BCS at-large: The best 1-loss team from the South (Oklahoma, Texas or Texas Tech)

Cotton: Still betting on next Big 12 South team available.

Holiday: Missouri or Oklahoma State

Gator: Missouri or Oklahoma State

Alamo: Nebraska

Insight: Kansas

Independence: No other Big 12 team is bowl eligible yet. Colorado needs one win but faces Oklahoma State and Nebraska.

Texas: No other Big 12 team likely to be eligible. Texas A&M and Kansas State need to win out.

But historically, bowls like having Notre Dame and this could be the Gator’s last chance at the Irish under the current contract.