VORP, FIP, WAR Propel Lincecum to Cy Young
ESPN.com’s Keith Law voted Tim Lincecum No. 1, Javier Vazquez No. 2 and Adam Wainwright No. 3.
He explained his thoughts on ESPN.com. He are snippets of that:
:Law noted that Lincecum led by wide margins the NL in FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) and WAR (Wins Above Replacement), “both of which normalize a pitcher’s stats to account for the help he received from his defense.” By a more narrow margin. “he also led the NL in VORP, which adjusts for park.”
As for Carpenter, Law didn’t believe he pitched enough innings. “He pitched extremely well when on the mound, but not well enough to close the value gap between him and the three pitchers,” Law said.
Vazquez, Law said, “ranked ahead of Wainwright in the advanced metrics anyway, but I also gave him extra credit for pitching in the most difficult division in the NL, one in which he had to face two great offenses and only one patsy.”
Law also dismissed the victory totals of the pitchers, noting that it “tells us nothing useful about how well the pitcher performed.”
Here is what Tipsheet find useful: Wins and losses. But maybe we’re just old-fashioned that way.
Will Carroll had Lincecum No. 1, Wainwright No. 2 and Danny Haren No. 3.
He explained:
“I felt that Dan Haren had been overlooked because of his team’s performance, but that his performance for them was definitely worthy of recognition. I thought that the Cards had two quality contenders for the Cy Young, but that Chris Carpenter’s time away for injury tipped the scales over to Adam Wainwright between the two of them, that despite the value arguments; consistency and availability are two traits that I don’t think get measured well, but they have clear value for a pitcher.
‘So, that left a decision between Tim Lincecum, last year’s winner, and Wainwright. I called three players and one scout, asking for their opinions. One player hadn’t faced Lincecum—”lucky break,” he said—but he felt that Lincecum looked more hittable. “I’m still convinced that deception is a big part of what Lincecum does,” another said, “and that unless there’s a new wrinkle, people are starting to figure him out. He’s still good, his [stuff] is still good, but comparing him to Wainwright? Wainwright was just a shutdown guy this year.”
“The value of two extra starts might not seem like much, but in a year which featured only one close divisional race, perhaps that marginal value per start isn’t as great in most years, but it’s those starts that tipped my vote.
“My final ballot for the NL Cy Young went Adam Wainwright, Tim Lincecum, and Dan Haren. I’ve second-guessed the Haren pick since turning it in, and maybe I didn’t give Jair Jurrjens enough consideration, but that’s a ballot I feel comfortable with. After turning in my ballot, I sat down with MLB.tv and watched each start for my three vote-getters, plus Jurrjens and Carpenter. The more I watch it, the more I feel like Wainwright and Lincecum are in a dead heat. Lincecum is more dominant, while Wainwright is the better pitcher. The subtle changes Wainwright makes from inning to inning and start to start are more visible in a burst-viewing of condensed games.”
FIP is one of the more useless stats in the increasingly laughable sabremetrics craze. The first generation of sabremetrics that added in OPS and the like were good but FIP is just a facade stat to reward strikeout pitchers over ground ball pitchers when truly ERA does a good enough job of this while also giving you the bottom line of how many runs are scored when this guy was on the mound. How does he react after giving up a couple of hits? Does he shut guys down and not allow runs? That’s what a bulldog like carp does and a guy like law who probably never even picked up a bat can’t understand. Keith Law is a nerdy d-bag who possibly has an axe to grind against St. Louis based on a lot of what I’ve heard from him. For one example he downgraded Cards farm system for years but then acted like they traded away the next Lou Gehrig when they dealt Wallace. Oh well, STL year of sports suffering continues…
Keith Law is the most anti-cardinal writer out there. Of course he didn’t vote for a cardinal pitcher better than 3rd place.
Does anyone know the instructions for voting, if any?
Gordo, you have Carroll’s vote backward. He had Waino No. 1, Lincecum No. 2. And honestly, I can’t totally fault him for taking Haren. Carp did miss a month, and although he was the best pitcher in the NL for the other 5 months of the year… well, that’s fine.
But Law… he can try throwing all that sabermetric crap around, but fact is, he has always shown a dislike for the Cardinals, and he’s a petty, selfpromotional jerk. He’s loving every minute of this attention.
I will never vaule anything Keith Law has to say. It’s a shame he even gets a vote for these awards, go back to playing dungeons & dragons Keith!
When FIP, WAR, VORP become deciding factors, we are all in trouble. Maybe obscure sabermetics mean somethings, but…….
Wins can be overrated, but they don’t mean much???!!!
There can be some reasoning for LIncecum, plenty for Waino. Then, how does Carp fall so far off?????????
Let us not forget that Law is the one who once said Chase Utley is the best player in the Majors, even better than Pujols.
Seriously, what is his beef with St. Louis?
“Here is what Tipsheet find useful: Wins and losses. But maybe we’re just old-fashioned that way”
Tipsheet’s an idiot.
Will Carroll? Keith Law?
Boy, the BBWAA must really need the dues!
This idea that, in order to compare pitchers, you have to take the quality of their team defense out of the equation seems ludicrous to me. You can’t separate the pitcher from his defense. That would be like discounting Peyton Manning’s stats because Indy has a good offensive line. Knowing your defense and pitching to the strengths of your team would have to be as important as any characteristic for a quality pitcher.
And, although I’ll agree that wins is not the only state…maybe not the most important one…anyone who completely discounts wins as a factor and says ‘they don’t tell us anything’ get no credence from me. Gordo is at least partially right…wins are kinda the point of the game.