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UMSL professor expects local foreclosures to worsen here

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UMSL professor expects local foreclosures to worsen here
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UMSL professor Swanstrom on floreclosures in St. Louis

Professor Todd Swanstrom has spent his life studying cities and their suburbs, and the explosion of foreclosures has given him a lot to think about.

In June, he co-wrote a "white paper" on the situation in Missouri, recommending changes in foreclosure laws and tougher state regulation of mortgage lending.

Swanstrom is the Desmond Lee Endowed Professor in Community Collaboration and Public Policy at the University of Missouri-St. Louis. The terms of his professorship require that he spend half his time teaching, and half helping to solve community problems.

In St. Louis, that means working on collaboration among the scores of municipal governments in the region.

He is author or co-author of six books on the politics and public policies of metropolitan areas.

We're all hoping to see the end of the foreclosure crisis. But you see another round of mortgage defaults coming in St. Louis. This time, it will be a round of Alt A mortgages and Option ARMS where rates are resetting higher next year. (Alt A mortgages were given to people with reasonable credit but uncertain and variable incomes. Option ARMS allowed borrowers to delay interest payments.) When will we be done with this?

I do see the light at the end of the tunnel, but it's a very long tunnel.

For at least a couple of years we're going to have unprecedented high mortgage foreclosure rates in Missouri.

We're at four times the rate of foreclosures that we saw in the 1990s.

Is there any reasonable way out of this for borrowers in trouble? Or, should we just the banks take the homes, let the housing market hit bottom, and then move on?

I definitely think we should do as much as we can to keep people in their homes. The reason is that the costs to the community and the local government and nearby property owners are so substantial.

A home is not just an object. It sets the ensemble of social relationships that people have. It's part of their identity. If you disrupt that, it has all sorts of implications for society. It's an argument for public policy intervention.

In a strong neighborhood, a foreclosure has really negative impact on the family. But usually the neighborhood is okay. The home goes right on the market and is sold again.

But in weak-market parts in the city, in certain pockets of the suburbs, the home may lie vacant for months. If the grass grows up, if it's vandalized, that can have a tremendous effect on the neighborhood.

In the city, a lot of neighborhoods were moving up. Then along came the foreclosure crisis and really pulled the rug out.

Nothing we've done so far has solved the problem. What are we doing wrong here?

Some people can't be saved. If you don't have a job and can't make monthly payments, there is very little we can do for you. You're going to lose your home, probably rent an apartment and go on with life.

But other people are good candidates for mortgage modifications, and the result is good for the borrower and the investor (who owns the mortgage).

One of the big issues is the role of the mortgage servicers. We've moved things apart so that the investors who own the mortgages do not service the mortgages. The servicers lack trained personnel, and they have incentives not to modify loans.

I wish these mortgages were held by local banks in St. Louis. They could make judgments about where it makes sense to modify, and where it doesn't make sense.

Instead, we've got people sitting in call centers somewhere trying to deal with someone facing a crisis. They have no idea what the real estate market is like here. You have to have local knowledge.

When a house goes to foreclosure, the value of the house goes down significantly, so the investors are taking a bath; $30,000 $40,000, $60,000 is lost the moment that house goes to foreclosure.

A national study by the Urban Institute concluded that somebody threatened with foreclosure is 60 percent less likely to lose the home if he talks with a mortgage counselor. So, mortgage counseling does make a difference on the margin. And it's available for free.

In St. Louis County we have rescue funds of up to $1,200 or $1,500. If there's a loan modification, and the only thing that's missing is $1,200 to catch up on payments, the rescue fund can be used.

If that means the people stay in the home, and the kids stay in school, and the neighborhood doesn't have a vacant house, then it's really a winner.

You recommend ending non-judicial foreclosure, which allows creditors to foreclose on a house without going to court in Missouri. This would slow the process down. Illinois is a judicial foreclosure state. Is Illinois better off than Missouri?

Yes. In Missouri, the process can be so quick (about 60 days) that homeowners don't have a chance to get help. I think a lot of homeowners are ashamed about a foreclosure. If they don't act quickly, they can lose their home.

We rated Missouri the fifth fastest in the nation. Most of the research suggests that there's a middle road, around the national average of 120 days from first notice to foreclosure.

If the process is too long, homeowners decide they just won't make the payments for a year and a half.

We have 91 communities in St. Louis County alone. Does all that government help or hurt?

It hurts.

On the one hand, local governments do have their ear close to the ground. On the other hand, they lack expertise to deal with the situation.

Beyond Housing (a nonprofit group that works on housing and foreclosure issues) has a "24:1 initiative" — 24 municipalities, all located within the footprint of the Normandy School District. That is fragmented. They're trying to get the mayors to talk with one another and come up with a coherent strategy for revitalizing the neighborhood.

The county does make an effort, but local land use is in the hands of the municipalities.

Copyright 2012 STLtoday.com. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

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