Same old same old for St. Louis housing

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Same old same old for St. Louis housing
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A national housing report out today contains more of the same for St. Louis.

Slow population growth and job losses produced a soft regional housing market in the second quarter. That's the finding of HUD's latest U.S. Housing Market Conditions report.

It's all in the numbers: Regional population as of July 1 was an estimated 2.84 million, up only 0.4 percent since 2007. In the last three years, the region's out migration has averaged 1,300 per year. In the 12 months before this May, nonfarm employment fell by 42,500 jobs, down 3.2 percent.

Of course these dreary numbers do a number, so to speak, on the region's housing market. But they could have been worse.

Based on data from local Multiple Listing Services, the Kelsey Cottrell Realty Group and the Post-Dispatch, during the first five months of 2010 about 10,400 existing homes were sold in the St. Louis area, up 17 percent from 8,900 homes sold for the same period a year ago. The supply of unsold homes also fell during that period. Based on pending sales, the average number of unsold homes on the market during the first five months of 2010 represented about 6.5 months of supply, down from an 8-month supply for the same period a year earlier.

But hang on. That bit of good news was due at least in part to the now-expired federal tax credit for first-time homebuyers. The area's sales peaked in 2004 and 2005, when more than 40,000 homes a year were sold, the new report says. But by 2008 home sales had fallen by more than 25 percent from the peak. In 2009, the number of sales declined further, to about 29,500 homes sold.

And yet, home prices edged up--by 1.2 percent--last year, marking the first increase in nearly three years. Of sales reported by the National Association of Realtors, the average price of an existing single-family home was $128,000 for the 12 months ended this past March. Still, home prices were 13 percent off their peak in mid-2007.

Single-family home construction in metro St. Louis peaked in 2004 and 2005, when permits were issued for more than 13,000 homes a year. From 2006 through 2009, building activity declined as demand for new homes fell with the weaker economy and tighter lending standards. Based on preliminary data, about 4,600 single-family homes were permitted in the area during the 12 months ended in May, up from the 3,850 homes permitted during the previous 12 months.

Much of the single-family home construction activity in the past decade has been in St. Charles County, which accounted for nearly a third of single-family homes permitted in the metropolitan area since 2000.

The report also notes that the area's rental market is "somewhat soft" because of job losses and net outmigration.

According to data from Reis Inc., the apartment vacancy rate in the second quarter of 2010 was 8.8 percent, while the average monthly apartment rent was $726, both nearly unchanged from a year earlier.

About 900 rental units are under construction in the region. Among them is the 190-unit Laurel Apartments, which is the conversion of the Dillard's building in downtown St. Louis to a mixed-use building that will include a hotel and retail space.

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