Homebuyers are staying home.

Home builders are in the dumps.

And most economists think things will get worse before they get better.

Three years into a housing slump of epic proportions, after two rounds of tax credits and record-low interest rates, there's a growing chorus of worry that we're in for a double-dip.

Those anxieties got louder Thursday, when the National Association of Realtors reported that home sales slid 5.1 percent from May to June. While the trade group stressed that sales are still nearly 10 points ahead of last year's pace, they acknowledged that they expect things to keep drooping for awhile. In St. Louis, sales are already negative, down 3.8 percent compared to last June.

There's a healthy debate under way about whether this is simply a hangover from the $8,000 tax credit, and short-lived, or fresh evidence of serious weakness in the housing market. But most agree that the answer hinges on one thing: Jobs.

"Only when jobs are created at a sufficient pace will home sales return to sustainable healthy levels," said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors.

With unemployment stubbornly above 9 percent, that has a lot of people feeling down.

A survey of home builders out this week found confidence at its lowest level since April 2009. Fannie Mae lowered its targets for growth through the rest of the year. And a new survey of 106 top economists found that 60 percent expect home prices to keep falling — up from 40 percent two months ago.

"The economy and the housing market are going to remain stagnant for a long time," said Sam Khater, senior economist at real estate data firm CoreLogic. "There's nothing that's going to propel sales any time soon."

But all real estate is local, and agents in the St. Louis area say they see some silver linings.

Myron Larimer, chief executive of the Realtors Association of Southwestern Illinois, notes that sales were up 4 percent in St. Clair County in June, and prices climbed 5 percent.

"We still think the economy needs to improve, but we're liking the signs that we're seeing," he said. "People are recognizing that there are good values to be had out there."

Kevin Cottrell, co-founder of Kelsey Cottrell Realty in Ballwin, watches the numbers closely. He saw pending sales — homes that are under contract but not yet closed — plunging in the weeks after the April 30 deadline for the tax credit. Now they've stabilized and are beginning to bounce back, he said.

Meanwhile, median prices are up in much of the region, climbing 7 percent from last year in St. Louis County, and about 9 percent in both St. Charles County and St. Louis city. That's not so much because people are selling their houses for more as because more expensive houses are getting sold, Cottrell noted,

"$200,000 to $500,000 is the strongest part of the market right now," he said, a big change from when the tax credit was driving sales at lower price points.

Still, Cottrell said, even that revival is tenuous.

"Because there's no job growth, there's no catalyst for people to say 'I'm going to move up,'" he said. "We're not getting that organic move-up at the level we'd normally see."

And those move-up sales make a big splash on the economy. A family may also buy new furniture, or get the yard redone. Maybe there's some renovation. Spending. Jobs. Plus a move-up frees a lower-priced home for a first-time buyer, ready to start the cycle anew.

But people who are worried about their jobs tend to stay put. And until that worry goes away, the housing market won't revive. It's a departure from past downturns, said Doug Duncan, chief economist at Fannie Mae.

"Housing has historically played a significant role in leading the country out of recession," he said.

Not this time.

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The Associated Press contributed to this report.