Here are a few more good predictions from a hard-to-predict year

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Here are a few more good predictions from a hard-to-predict year
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Yesterday's column announced a winner in my 2011 Economic Challenge, but I want to hand out some honorable mentions before closing the contest books. As I mentioned, every entry had its flaws, and winner Robert Larson's forecast was simply a little less flawed than the others. Some people did extraordinarily well, though, on one of the four predictions that I asked for:

  • Best GDP forecast came from Philip Bergman. The U.S. economy's anemic growth rate of 1.6 percent may have been the biggest surprise last year. Bergman, who predicted 1.9 percent growth, was the only one of 82 contestants who was under 2 percent.
  • Best unemployment forecast was shared by four people, all of whom hit the December rate on the nose at 8.5 percent. Hats off to George Bennett, Ernie Coe, Jerry James and King Taylor.
  • Best inflation forecast is a three-way tie among Michael Wolken, who thought the Consumer Price Index would rise 2.9 percent, and Harry Niederbremer and Tom Dyer, who both submitted 3.1 percent predictions. The majority of contestants' forecasts were far below the actual 3.0 percent rise.
  • Best stock market forecast was submitted by Mark Cannon, who pegged the Dow Jones industrial average at 12,225, a mere 7 points above the actual year-end close. I hope you're making some money in the market, Mark.

Tune in a year from now for the results from our 2012 contest.

Read more from David Nicklaus, who is the business columnist for the Post-Dispatch. On Twitter, follow him @dnickbiz and the Business section @postdispatchbiz.

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David Nicklaus

Looking for intelligent discussion of our fast-changing economy? You've come to the right place. Pull up a chair, pour yourself a tall glass of iced tea and join the conversation with business columnist David Nicklaus, who's been observing the St. Louis business scene for more than two decades.

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