Joe Strauss: All right, let's get on board for Tsunami '09. Sorry for the short notice for this session but judging from the volume of questions, many of you were waxing down over the holidays awaiting the Perfect Wave. Except for acquiring Royce Ring, the Cardinals are much the same as when they left the Winter Meetings. As for Brian Fuentes, apparently what happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas (until it goes to Anaheim). I would wish many of the ChatHeads a Happy New Year, but your tone is decidedly disgruntled. So without further ado, Let's Get It On!!!

roger from lake tahoe: I think the cards have themselves in a dilemma. Mo's unfortunate statement about acquiring "low hanging fruit" not only demeans the team but also brands any player the team signs. I imagine that no player wishes to be considered low hanging fruit. Has management created the impression they consider themselves a second class team capable only of scavenging other's left overs? We beg the master of the big wave for his wisdom.

Joe Strauss: Your question hits a chord because it addresses perception. In today's P-D, GM John Mozeliak clarified the term, saying he was searching for a creative way to say "get some things done quickly," i.e. signing Kyle Lohse to an extension and retaining backup catcher Jason LaRue. The club would not consent to your description of "leftovers." However, it is fair to say the Cardinals are not interesting in helping furthe set the market after the Lohse move (4Y/$41M).

Andrew: El Diablo,

Just thought I would throw out my $.02 on the closer situation. Let the kids play! Make it a competition between Motte and Perez. The Cardinals want cost certainty. They are cheap. They want a closer who has the stuff to close...these 2 are electric! They also need to find out whether these 2 guys are really "the future." I haven't played ball since the 3rd grade so I don't know everything but can it really hurt their development getting promoted now? The future is now!

Joe Strauss: Well, there are some within the organization who would agree with you. The manager and the pitching coach have a slightly different take. (OK, a radically different take.) Motte and Perez aren't finished products. However, the Cardinals apparently feel Jason Isringhausen is finished. The club does not believe itself well positioned right now to commit heavy dollars to any remaining closer. A possibility such as Juan Cruz, who has never closed before but could become what Carlos Marmol offers the Chicago Cubs, requires Type A compensation. That means the Cardinals would sacrifice their first-round draft pick in the '09 selection. For now, the club appears in-between.
P.S.: Trevor Hoffman is not a target because the club no believes he is no longer particularly effective.

DisCard: I think there’s a great deal to be said for being patient and waiting for the bargains to come to you. I also think with 200+ free agents out there, opportunities still exist. That said the latest acquisition would seem to hint more of desperation and less of an opportunity buy. What is the point of signing a body with that kind of OBP? I know Duncan can improve some pitchers. Wouldn’t it be better to sign someone who was good that Duncan might make great, rather than signing someone who’s weak in hopes Duncan can elevate him to mediocre?

Joe Strauss: Your voice is heard. Many similar comments were registered when the club acquired Todd Wellemeyer from the KANSAS CITY ROYALS!!! in May 2007. But the ChatMeister feels your skepticism.

redbirdswin: With TLR hinting at signing a FA starter that has had closer experience, the name that stands out to me is John Smoltz. Any rumblings on whether or not the Cards have any chance whatsoever of signing Smoltz to a short term deal, and use him as that verteran closer they so desperately need?

Joe Strauss: Smoltz will return to Atlanta, barring an impasse over money. The Cardinals inquired about his availability after the FA filing period. Names such as Pedro Martinez and Bartolo Colon are more realistic, but the front office downplayed the likelihood almost as soon as TLR advanced it.

Joe R. from Pa: Why Ring when there are better, more proven, options available? Who cares if they would want a muti year deal. We need lefties in the bullpen past 2009. I, unlike many, want to believe the ownership is sincere about being aggressive. After this signing one would think they are being cheap. There's even a difference between low hanging fruit and the stuff that's already on the ground. I know counselors are standing by and I may need one. Please explain the logic. Thanks Joe

Joe Strauss: Ring came at the right price ($475,000). The Cardinals have acquired three low-cost options (Manning, Miller, Ring). You should assume Miller part of the roster, barring injury. I doubt both Manning and Ring are on the Opening Day roster, so one represents depth. Though chairman Bill DeWitt recently said there is no budget for payroll per se, the Cardinals obviously work within constraints. Prior to the recent economic meltdown, my understanding was that payroll would be $100-$105 million to open the season. The club says it is leaving wiggle room in case it needs to make a major addition to the starting rotation, and that such a reading will not be possible until early February. There's your explanation. There is also suspicion that pitchers such as Joe Beimel and Will Ohman may fail to command more than one-year deals. But they are not willing to accept such a markdown at present.

GSW: Chatmeister,

A well-written but depressing read this morning regarding Mr. Ring. If this is this really all that $475,000 buys these days, I guess the baseball economy has successfully avoided the recession.

Please share your wisdom to help the rest of us weather the economic storm: Sooners or Gators? Over or under? Boxers or briefs - no, wait . . .

As always, you da man!

Joe Strauss: From the same source who predicted Texas and OSU would end as a one-possession (but struggled mightily with the NFL wild card games), consider this free money: Florida 38, Boomer Sooner 32.

J.Brad: Herr Chatmeister,
Geez, where ya been?
Shouldn't the Cardinals have tendered Miles a contract worthy of starter pay, since he plays several positions and is basically invalubale under the system Tony uses? (needing an all around guy who can rest regulars, play all over the IF/OF, etc...) To me, this one really hurts.
Also, did Fuentes just not want to be a Cardinal? The money didn't seem that much different.
Last question--will we see some movement in spring training or do the Cards have an idea to sign someone we don't know about?
Thanks!
J.Brad in TN

Joe Strauss: Miles was a key reason why the Cardinals overachieved last year. He did a lot of things pretty well but does not have a single outstanding talent. The Cubs paid him to start. I've said before in this forum that Miles can quickly become overexposed, especially on defense, when played daily. That said, he improved as a defensive player in 3 seasons here. He was a great clubhouse guy. There may have been some merit to trying to sign Miles before non-tendering him. Miles said during the season that if the club non-tendered him for a second straight season, he would aggressively pursue other options. He found one. The Cardinals claim they got involved late. That tells me one of two things happened: There was an internal wrangle over whether or not to release Adam Kennedy OR the Cardinals simply got caught flat-footed. Of course, there may be a 3rd option: That they never really intended to retain him. (I believe there was sentiment to bring him back, but not near the Cubs' dollars.)

Chris: Joe,
What's the percentage no outfielder is traded and Rasmus starts the season in triple A again?

Joe Strauss: Since you asked -- 40 percent.

Joel: Joe,

I'm always very impressed with the way you do your business here. You give straight answers, have plenty of wisdom, etc. In addition, you continually churn out insightful and well-done stories. It's no surprise the Tsunami reaches the heights it does! However, I was stunned when I saw you'd been elected Speaker of the Texas House. How do you do it all?

http://www.statesman.com/blogs/content/shared-gen/blogs/austin/firstreading/entries/2009/01/06/the_joe_straus_era_begins.html

Joe Strauss: I'm looking for an agent. You're hired.

Frank: Mr. Strauss

I think the Cardinals are following a pattern seen here before. Win in 60's lose in 70's win in 80's, lose in 90's, win in 04,06 now we are heading into the bad decade.
I honestly do not feel they are attempting to keep up with the Cubs. What scares me is in todays economics, is the Cardinals may turn into the Brewers, or Pirates. I would hate to see Cardinal games looking like Ram games with no fans.
Do you think I am way off ?

Joe Strauss: Come on Frank. The "Naughties" as the English call the decade have produced 98-, 105 and 100-win seasons. two league championships and a World Series win. The team won 86 games last season, not great by local standards but hardly a meltdown. I do expect there to be some significant transition upon TLR's exit. But projecting 10 (or even three) years ahead is tough business. As long as this club retains 3 million attendance and incremental growth of a $100M payroll, there is no reason to expect a Nuclear Winter. Now if resources ebb....

Darin: I remember you saying in an earlier chat that if the Cards don't make a splash in the offseason, we would have reason to complain. So far they have signed 3 questionable lefties, and traded for a ss who is also questionable. None of these moves make me optimistic about 2009. Does Mozeliak have anything up his sleeve, or is this the team we'll see on Opening Day?

Joe Strauss: The club still has at least one trade to make.

Greg: This has been a most uninspiring offseason, in my opinion and I'm sure I'm not alone. Are the Cards really content with waiting for the market to "settle?" Why not be aggressive on a second tier starter and get something done? At this point, do Randy Wolf, Jon Garland, or Kenshin Kawakami get more than two years? Picking up any of those guys in addition to a veteran reliever and/or bench player is all the team really needs if Kennedy is, in fact, their 2B.

Joe Strauss: I believe at least one of the pitchers you named will fail to get three years. Indeed, they all may have to settle for 2 years. However, the Cardinals are not inclined to guarantee money to a veteran starte until Carpenter's situation clarifies. That should take another month. Kawakami, according to Japanese media, has a 3 year, $21 million offer. If that's true, he should accept it yesterday.

rich: Joe: Heard a little bit of your comments yesterday afternoon on Bernie's show. As always, very insightful stuff from you.
My question, or comment is this: With over 100 free agents still all there, plus trades that can be made, do you think we (Cards nation) are overreacting to the Cards lack of signings and trades so far? After all, like Jeff Gordan said in his column this morning 'opening day is still 90 days away' plenty of time to sign and or trade for players.

Thanks
Rich

Joe Strauss: Look, trading for Greene was a significant addition, many believe. When you see the Reds, Brewers and Astros making impact moves while the Cardinals remain static, your concern may be more justified. Right now, the Brewers have retreated. The Astros are on the books for $60M to four players this season with no payroll flexibility. The Reds are doing some interesting things but remain a work in progress. Right now, most I talk to believe the Cardinals the Central's second-best team. It's OK to be skeptical. But it's also OK to look around and see what others are (or are not) doing.

Tackleberry: Big Kahuna,

The reality of this off-season stings; that of course being that the Cards owners have the fans by the short hairs again this year with the All-Star game headed to the Lou. Fans want to get their tickets and so they will renew their season tickets, period. Why does this ownership group need to spend money on the product on the field when fans will come regardless? It's like the Masters, they don't need commercials and advertising to support their product so why would they pay for it?

Do you think rumors of a sale will surface at the end of the 2009 season?

Joe Strauss: There are constant rumors of a sale. BDJ denied those recently during a radio interview conducted by columnist Bernie Miklasz and the ChatMeister. This is not a good time to sell a sports franchise. However, the Cardinals do appear intent of purging long-term contracts. Only Albert, Wainwright, Molina and Carpenter are signed beyond 2009. The recent reluctance to spend on free agents only reinforces conspiracy theories. The Cardinals enjoy very stable ownership relative to the industry. One day that will change. But I can't tell you the day.

Matt: Joe,

Is it possible that we're going to make an attempt to sign Brandon Lyon to bridge the gap until Chris Perez or Jason Motte is ready? I don't think Lyon will cost THAT much, plus he has experience and is capable of handling 9th inning duties. I have a bad feeling that we're going to sign a starter or two on the cheap and then attempt to turn one of them into our closer. This has been a pretty disappointing offseason so far. I don't know why Mo is set against signing one of the available closers to a short term deal.

Joe Strauss: It isn't Mo's money. He acts within the boundaries set by ownership. As those boundaries shift, so do his public comments. At this time last year, there was no Rolen-for-Glaus (Jan. 14), Ron Villone (signed Feb. 19) or Kyle Lohse (signed March 14). Calm down. The GM is in a tough spot. Except for the hair-trigger signing of Joel Pineiro, I don't believe Mo' has committed any serious misstep. With limited resources, it is natural for him to proceed cautiously. That's not being a Cardinals apologist. It's just being real. But it's also true that many of the questions being asked by fans are on the minds of many in uniform.

Matt: Joe- where did the money that was apparently offered to Brian Fuentes go? Was he offered the same money as Royce Ring? If the money was there for Fuentes, wouldn't it be reasonable to expect that it might still be there to bolster the rotation with a reliable veteran like Randy Wolf or a guy with a little more upside like Oliver Perez? It is obvious to everyone outside of the organization that counting on Chris Carpenter for more than a handful of appearances is going to set us up for the same cycle we went through last season. The difference is this time we will be missing possibly our most durable starter from last year, Braden Looper.

Joe Strauss: Point well taken. But if the Cards had signed Fuentes, McClellan or Boggs would likely be the fallback for Carpenter whereas there is still flexibility to sign another starter, if necessary. I can't argue with your suggestion that the Cardinals again appear dependent on rehabilitating pitchers making a major contribution. But it's also fair to say an alignment of Wainwright, Lohse, Wellemeyer, Pineiro and a middle-of-the-pack starter gives the Cardinals no worse than the division's third-best rotation. If Carpenter is a factor, they're second only to the Cubs (and perhaps not as far back as most would believe, given latent concerns about Carlos Zambrano).

Terrapin03: Mr. Strauss -
I have two questions for you on this fine Wednesday.
1) As the team stands today and assuming Carp is a non-factor (which should be the team's approach, but apparently isn't) is this team any better than last year's 3rd runner-up in the Central Division?
2) What do you make of Mo's recent comment about giving Mather a look at 2B? Is there anything more to this than simply seeing if Joey Bombs is capable of holding down a super-utilily role, rather than just a 5th OF role?
Thanks!

Joe Strauss: I'd be stunned to see Mather anywhere other than the OF or at a corner infield position. There is a reason Sir Bombs was moved to the outfield. He is athletic but is far better catching fly balls than grounders.

John Sepela: Joe

re your recent Dominican trip
What was the goal of the trip and what else did you learn ( vis-a-vis the Cardinals ) while there?

Thanks
John
Mountain Top PA

Joe Strauss: The trip was canceled. I got only as far as Puerto Rico, where i watched Mizzou hoops and did a piece on Jose Oquendo. Thanks for asking.

therealdealankiel: All-knowing Insider,

Motte and Perez are getting a lot of hype. Can Motte develop the second pitch he needs to? Can Perez harness the control necessary for the 9th? Or is Kinney the WC for the 9th next season. It seems that all three have the "bulldog" mentality that Izzy used to have. It seems we have three viable 9th inning options...what are the chances that they are worse than throwing an Izzy/Franklin platoon out there as we did last May, June and July?

Joe Strauss: I don't believe it would be worse than an injured Izzy and an uncomfortable Franklin. But the Cardinals need it to be significantly better. I believe the "competition" between Motte and Perez one of the most compelling subplots of this spring, barring a move for a closer.

Jason: Joe-
TLRs contract was up after the '07 campaign. He is clearly a "win now" type of guy. The management can state they are trying to win now, but if they are, then they have an awfully odd way of going about it. (I personally don't believe them.) Assuming the route taken by Mo in '08 (no help down the stretch) and the offseason to this point, is TLR the right "match" for the new philosophy of the management? I can't imagine he'd want to be around if he can't get enough help for Pujols, Waino, and Molina to mount a legitimate playoff run.

Thanks,
Jason

PS - If the SEC is so dominant, how did 'Bama lose a virtual home game to Utah?

Joe Strauss: That's a question this season will answer. I'm asked repeatedly if TLR will re-up beyond this season. My answer: Heads he stays, tails he goes. Right now I'm calling tails.
As for your impertinent swipe at 'Bama... The Tide's season effectively ended when they lost the real National Championship game to Florida at the Georgia Dome. Getting up for a Utah team that everything to prove was predictably difficult. That said, 'Bama lost to an undefeated team ranked No. 6 in the nation. Meanwhile, Texas Tech was being smoked by a four-loss Mississippi bunch. I dare say the bowl season has confirmed SEC superiority.

Lee Martin: Did Mo not know these 5 players were arbitration eligible when he was talking earlier about expanding the payroll? Sounds like he is using this as an out.

Joe Strauss: Put 2 and 2 together. Some of the talk about moving either Ankiel or Ludwick factored in saving money, especially if a young pitcher was acquired. Holliday-for-Ludwick was an exception, and that would have meant assuming Holliday in the walk year of his current deal. I would not be surprised to see Ankiel and Lud' earn more than $8M combined next season compared to about $1.4M in 08.

Sean: Where does Joe Thurston fit into the 2009 picture? He was a top rated prospect a few years ago, any chance he puts those tools together this year? And if he does, does he have any chance to start over Kennedy?

Joe Strauss: Thurston competes with Brendan Ryan, Jarrett Hoffpauir and Tyler Greene as infield depth. David Freese? We'll see.

Sean: Who has a better chance of making the big league club this year:

David Freese

OR

Brian Barden?

Joe Strauss: I would say Barden because of his experience and versatility. I wrongly omitted him from the previous answer.

tc22: Joe,

Are Mozeliak and Bill DeWitt in this thing to win games or make money?
I'm not interested in the "politically correct" answer. At the end of last season they bragged that there would be money to spend for this season. Now I only hear excuses about why they can't spend. I don't expect them to spend irresponsibly, I just want to see this club improve. Your thoughts?

Joe Strauss: Tell you what: I will approach ChatMeister Mo' about taking on your questions in upcoming weeks. One condition: Mo' must answer in blunt, unvarnished manner, even if bruises some of your feelings. What you see as "excuses," the club perceives as "reasons." I would feel better allowing Mo' to speak for himself on some of this? Your thoughts?

bskaggs: I get sick of year in and year out the Cardinals saying, "at the end of the year we have so-and-so's money coming of the books" and "we will be in the market for top tier free agents". If Kyle Lohse was the top tier free agent this year, which I agree he was a great addition last year, are they considering the amount he signed for as using up the money that came off the books from our ex-players?

Joe Strauss: Well, yes. They should. It's probably a valid comment when one club official asked: "Did we make a mistake signing Lohse too soon?" It's an interesting point. One wonders how perception might be different if the club did Lohse last week rather than the day after the season.

Vince: What makes the "high hanging fruit" any better than the "low hanging fruit"? It all comes from the same tree and you don't risk falling off the ladder trying to reach it. People forget that the goal of any professional sports team is to make money with championships being a bonus. That being said, what moves do you see the Cardinals making before going to spring training?

Joe Strauss: I believe it reasonable to expect some sort of depth for the rotation. There appears to be an internal debate about how to handle the closer role. TO BE DETERMINED.

badbeat3333: With all of the lobbying that LaRussa has been doing lately to sign a starter or closer, do you see any way that he returns next year? Don't you think he's had enough with being told "no" and will move on after 09?

Joe Strauss: Tails.

Jim Bankes: Hi Joe!

Appreciate your work and your candor. What is your take on the LaRussa statement that he may use Carp as his closer?

Joe Strauss: It's a possibility. Not a probability. In fact, I believe it only a remote possibility.

BigVer: Mr. Strauss, In terms of contending for the NL Central against the Cubs. Do the Cards as of right now in your opinion have what it takes to get it done? If not what one Free Agent still available could help turn my dream into reality. I think it's Lowe FWIW.

I know the ole' song and dance about another pitcher signed for three years. But wouldn't it be nice to have a rotation for the next three season of Wainwright, Lowe, Lohse, Wellemeyer and Possible Carp.

Peace Ver

Joe Strauss: The Cubs are the league's most talented team. Talent doesn't always win, but it usually reaches the playoffs. The division appears to have taken a significant step backward since last season. That could work in the Cardinals' favor, though I don't see them right now on par with either Philadelphia or the New York Mets in a potential wild-card chase. We'll see what happens with media darlings such as S. Francisco and Florida or a team with money to spend, such as Atlanta.

mike: I've seen TLR and Duncan do great things with average talent in the past few years, but considering that we had no significant signings this off season. Shouldn't the organization consider trading two of our outfielders at letting Rasmus and maybe even Mather play the majority of the time? I know both are unproven, but the cards finished fourth in a division that keeps getting better.

Joe Strauss: The core of an 86-win team is returning. TLR is among those who believe this team is not far from contending, or even winning its division. Hence, frustration over a relatively static winter. I don't think this organization intends to turn out all its veterans and "go bad" as some sort of renovation. For one, the fans wouldn't tolerate it. For two, despite all the ongoing PR efforts, the minor-league system is not ready to support it. Does the front office and ownership deserve scrutiny? Absolutely. But at some point does a portion of the fan base need to stop demanding its binky and let the winter play out? Well, yeah.

wwalker: joe,

I think you are absolutely wrong about the blues getting somewhat of a free pass. when you compare rams to blues and efforts given every game - there can be no comparison- st louis loves a good solid effort with results of course but when the public can see the future drwan out for them (blues)and the plan followed- interests holds. the challenging time period for the blues is around the corner and tangible results are needed by next season but there is no free pass just a semblance of honesty from management oklahoma 31 florida 24

Joe Strauss: I've yet to read this headline in our paper: "Cardinals Try Hard in Loss"

Tony's Dog: El Diablo I wanted to let you know what I overheard my master saying. He is not happy with the front office for not delivering on their promise to field a better team. He puts on a good face, but inside he is not happy with them. Since I can't talk, I can't ask him what he is going to do after his contract is up. Do you think he is done after this year, especially since the front office isn't commited to improving the team? Good thing he doesn't take me with him to work, otherwise I may have to pee on Mo's shoe. Although I wouldn't mind taking big dump on the infield.

Joe Strauss: Should I refer to you as "an industry source." Next time clean up the imagery.

jimbyrd: It seems as though our entire 2009 season is hinged on the health of Carpenter. Even if healthy, it is unrealistic to expect more than 150 inings from a pitcher who has not pitched in 2 seasons. What is your best guess as to what we will get out Carp this season & how will he be used??

Joe Strauss: I'm confident Carpenter is going to pitch (and start) this season. The larger question is for how long. Should he suffer a relapse of the nerve condition, it will be a season-ending setback, according to my medical sources. It's kind of a tightrope. Again, it's impossible to project when and how he will initially be used when he hasn't thrown a ball since undergoing November surgery to transpose a nerve near his right elbow. The name is Strauss, not Nostradamus (though several Las Vegas sports books might disagree).

Jeepster: Chatmeister: Please tell me that your comment "trading for Greene was a significant addition" was simply a type-o.

Joe Strauss: Tough room.

Jordon W.: Chatmeister-- you said earlier that the club still has one trade to make. Assuming that's trading an outfielder and assuming that Rasmus is off the board, who do you move, Ankiel or Ludwick?

Joe Strauss: Not to be flip, but it depends on who's giving up what. The Yankees have continuing interest in Ankiel. Do you do Phil Hughes or Ian Kennedy? Ludwick is under control for three more years but could become a payroll "problem" given two more rounds of arbitration. There's a lot that comes into play. If Rasmus projects as your future CF, it would appear more logical to find a market for Ankiel and perhaps negotiate to take away Ludwick's arbitration years.

mrbball28: Joe,

With all of the inactivity of the front office over the last couple of years, what motivation does LaRussa have to return after this year? He has publicly been asking for an impact bat for several years, and then Brian Fuentes, and now a starter/closer. He has gotten nothing.

Also, why would Pujols want to stay if the management doesn't seem committed to putting together a team that could contend for championships year in and year out?

Thanks!

Joe Strauss: TLR's decision to stay or go will be a factor in how El Hombre looks at the situation, I believe. Jose Oquendo's candidacy as La Russa's possible successor is an underrated factor as well.

Joe Strauss: That's going to have to do it. The big wave has become shark-infested waters as what resident columnist Brian Burwell endearingly calls baseball's "Stepford Fans" appear in full revolt. Sorry I didn't get to more of your questions but I believe everyone, including the Cards' FO, gets the drift. I'll make a sincere effort to put ChatMeister Mo' on line in the near future and will return myself before heading to Florida.
A Public Service Announcement: The Baseball Writers Dinner is scheduled for Monday, Jan. 19 at the Millennium Hotel. It wraps up the Cardinals' annual Winter Warm-Up. It's a fun event and will feature El Hombre and his MVP award (as well as an opportunity for ChatHeads to stop by and pay homage to The ChatMeister). Tickets for the event are $150 a pop and include a pass to the Warm-Up. (What a deal!!!) Those interested may contact Chris Militello at 314.229.3040.
Also, stay tuned for Derrick "Junior" Goold's upcoming unveiling of the Cardinals' prospect rankings in Baseball America. We'll discuss later.
Thanks again for checking in on short notice.