Joe Strauss: All right, everybody back up for some December hardball with the ChatMeister. The demands of work necessitated a week in Puerto Rico with another trip to Las Vegas scheduled to begin Friday. But in the midst of such an incessant grind we're working in a brief ride on The Tsunami to update and project what's going on with St. Louis favorite and, for some of you, most vexing franchise. We may be returning for more on-site chat from the Winter Meetings next week, but the decision will be made based on your input (register thoughts at Cards Talk, my e-mail or with the bosses). Last December's chat created a record Tsunami, so the motivation is there. Enough talk, let's ride.

THEblindhomer: Need the 411 Joe.

Everyone understands why Izzy was not offered arbitration.

Most everyone understands why Springer was not offered arbitration (over $4mil for a righty in the pen with Perez, Motte, Kinney & Franklin already there?)

But what about Looper? Seems that in a reasonable market, he should be considered a viable 5th slot guy for another club on a multi-year deal. Seems he would be an acceptable rotation safety net for one year for the Cardinals should he accept arby, even given the arby increase.

So what gives? Do the Cardinals have something in the works that would preclude them from offering arby to Looper?

Something more sinister?

Joe Strauss: Good to hear from Blindhomer, a frequent critic of the ChatMeister who weighs in with a question shared by many. Looper earned a $5.5M base last season plus appearance incentives that make it highly likely he would command at least $8-$9M if he accepted an offer of arbitration. Within an uncertain market complicated by a plummeting economy, he may have been advised to take the guaranteed money. By doing so, Looper would have given the Cardinals uncertain rotation more depth, but it also would have cut into the club's financial flexibility as it retools its middle infield and the left side of its bullpen. The Cardinals aren't the only club to be cautious with arbitration. A pitcher such as Randy Wolf (potential target) was also refused arbitration. Looper was surprised as well.

MOSportsFan: Joe,

Our Great Baseball Wizard, can you please tell us what the Cardinals are going to do to improve this club?

If I had to bet, my feeling is the organization's ideal off-season would be to sign a "cheaper" shortstop like Renteria, add a good LHRP, sign a scrap heap starting pitcher and resign Felipe Lopez.

If you were just a Cardinals fan and not a sportswriter, would you be satisfied with that scenario?

Joe Strauss: Renteria reportedly is close to signing with the Giants. It remains to be seen if the Cardinals will compete with the Cincinnati Reds to secure Arthur Rhodes as a LH specialist. A source informed me last week that Rhodes would prefer to pitch in St. Louis if the terms are close; however, the Reds are apparently becoming very aggressive. Funny you mention Flip Lopez... He's apparently seeking a multi-year deal which scares the Cardinals. His defense is a question and his track record suggests Lopez wears out his welcome after an extended stay in the same clubhouse. That said, most media found him cooperative this year and he showed a willingness to work with Jose Oquendo on his defense. There is a scenario where the Cardinals go for cheap defense at SS (Think: Adam Everett), then role the dice defensive at second. That would work in Lopez' favor. The Cardinals require multiple LH relievers. They may also learn later this week that they require more insurance for the starting rotation. Ryan Ludwick remains in play for a significant trade, though the club would rather not confirm it.
I believe fans should take note of what is done to support the rotation and give the club a viable closer option. If those needs aren't addressed, you have my permission to become concerned.

dave cobler: Good afternoon Joe, it is great to chat with you today;

Thank you for being here for us fans and for taking my question, which is;

By not offering salary arbitration to Looper and Springer it appears that Mo is putting money back to give him leverage to acquire a marque player or two. Is there a potential big bird on the radar that Mo is targeting or is he just saving his ammuntion to go to a field where their are birds galore to hunt because they are being pushed out of their nest due to the effects that the economy may offer him? Who might be the marque player(s) and who are the birds that may be pushed out of the nest that Mo might be hopeful to nab that would qualify as a successful hunting trip?

THANK YOU!

Joe Strauss: Good question. The Cardinals refuse to confirm interest in big fish free agents but it is believed they may be a "mystery team" in the Rafael Furcal Sweepstakes. Such a move would obviously counter an Everett-Lopez sort of middle infield, and there is still suspicion the Cardinals could get involved for Atlanta Braves SS Yunel Escobar or 2B Kelly Johnson. The Cardinals appear comfortable waiting for the market to sort itself out. They are more interested in short-term fixes for the rotation and closer, which may argue in favor of bringing Jason Isringhausen back for an incentive-laden Farewell Tour. The Trever Miller odyssey appears more complicated by the day, with Mo admitting earlier this week that the situation is in limbo. Mo hoped to have something done by Thanksgiving. My hunch is he'll move on a LH reliever within the next week.

GSW: Chatmeister!

Welcome back - Mizzou hoops can be entertaining, but it just ain't the Cards! A couple of queries while the tsunami hangs frozen (literally) over our heads . . .

Obvious question: How much did the Cards think Looper would command in arbitration to make the sandwich pick not worth the risk?

Less obvious question: I've heard several times about backroom deals between club and player to offer arbitration with the understanding that it won't be accepted. Couldn't Mo have worked this deal with Looper and/or Izzy?

Pick of the week: As a MU alum and long-suffering fan, I appreciate but question your prediction for Saturday's game. The only ways MU hold the Sooners below 50 are a) Bradford can't play, b) Stoops calls off the dogs early because he's already in the championship game, or c) the Tigers switch defenses with Alabama.

As always, you da man.

Joe Strauss: Addressed some of this earlier but...
Market uncertainty tends to invalidate some of these "gentlemen's agreements" that you accurately speak of. Plus, Looper would have brought the Cardinals only a supplemental draft pick, not exactly a persuasive swap had he accepted arbitration.
Though I'm often labeled an anti-Mizzou, SEC honk, I give El Tigres a solid chance at covering Saturday's inflated spread. OU has defensive questions of its own and Bradford's injured hand could become a complicating factor in what are expected to be frigid conditions. I think the spread is out of line with the team's relative strengths, though I give Mizzou little chance of winning outright.

OBIE 1975: Chatmeister: The natives are very restless for some good news. Declining arbitration to Looper leaves the SP precarious at best with only 3 proven starters (Carp would be a bonus but we can't count on his health). How are we to run down the cubs or are we relegated to the second division again?

Joe Strauss: The Cardinals are frankly poorly positioned to make a run at the Cubs next season barring several significant acquisitions. The better question is how far removed the Cardinals are from running down a Sheet-less, Sabathia-less Milwaukee Brewers team and a Houston Astros club apparently feeling some serious financial cramps. The Cardinals won 86 games with a porous bullpen and several significant late-season injuries. It's not unrealistic to think the market offers them a chance for a 5-game improvement, which may be enough to achieve a wild card.

redbirdswin: Wonderful to have you back, Joe!

I'm not expecting Carp to produce right away (if at all) - So do the Cards have legitimate interest in Randy Wolf to shore up the starting rotation? If not, who are the targets for potential 5th starter types? Penny? Jennings?

Joe Strauss: Wolf and Penny are legitimate options advocated by several influential members of the organization. A one-year deal may make Penny more "doable," though Mo' said after last season that he is wary of again relying on pitchers with questionable health histories. Unfortunately, "low-hanging fruit" typically comes with bruises.

cashmoney655: Hey Joe,

What's up with the Birds not offering arb to Springer?? How much would he really stand to make in arbitration? If he were to decline, then we'd get a pick from whoever signs him right? If he accepts we have our most reliable reliever from last years mediocre bullpen. Where's the downside to this? Sure we have a lot of RH relievers but that creates competition which is never a bad thing. Thanks for the chat!

Joe Strauss: Springer would have accepted... and been virtually guaranteed a '09 salary of $4M-plus.

Steve from Carbondale: Joe,

Tell me we're going to get to see Rasmus at the start of this year. The anticipation is killing me! Also, do you know about Colby's demeanor? Is the rift between Colby and La Russa legit?

Joe Strauss: Mo' is pimping Raz' for next season's Opening Day roster, which only fuels speculation about a trade (or two) involving outfielders. Rasmus was crushed by his failure to make the O.Day roster last March and the negatives snowballed from there. My understanding is that he is much improved physically. TLR insists suggestions of Rasmus taking up residence in the manager's double-wide doghouse are erroneous. We will see. The manager has a long memory. Postings by Rasmus family members that TLR was about to do to Colby what Dave Duncan did to Anthony Reyes left some deep scars.

Brett: El Diablo, great to hear from you again! I have a question about the Cards and their search for an Impact bat. Does TLR still want one? And do you think Mo will get us one? Albert needs some REAL protection.

Joe Strauss: Does TLR still want one? Absolutely. Will Mo' get one? Doubtful. Some within the organization would remind you that the Cardinals were the only NL team to have multiple Silver Slugger winners (El Hombre, Ludwick), ranked fourth in runs scored, had a 3B (Glaus) finish within a wisp of 100 RBI, had a catcher (Molina) bat .300 and a CF hit .300 in more than 500 AB, and a CF (Ankiel) tracking for 40 home runs before suffering a sports hernia. They also sieze on TLR's suggestion that Chris Duncan's return to health could add another bat to the lineup's core. Doesn't sound like a priority to me, especially after the club blinked on Holliday.

Dave S.: Joe,

Lately people all over the boards have been ripping Mo appart for not making big moves. If I remember correctly when Mo was Ast. GM didn't he handle both Springer and Luddy for the Cards? I think I remember reading that here at STLtoday. I just think Mo deserves more credit than he is getting, and I think he will make some much needed moves this winter. Fans shouldn't throw Mo under the bus for DeWitt's cheapness.

Joe Strauss: Mo did much heavy lifting as asst. GM. But now he's in The Chair. Credit and criticism come with it. Baseball's Best Fans should look beyond the city limits, however. This market is moving at a glacial pace. I expect a flurry of activity in Vegas. If the Cardinals leave The Meadows empty-handed (either at the trading table or the craps table), have at 'em.

Bluebirds66: Joe, I don't get it. The Braves wouldn't deal Ohlman to anyone (especially the Cards) last year. Now they don't even offer him abritration. They ended up with nothing. Why?

Joe Strauss: Like almost everyone else with a LH reliever to deal, they overreached. I doubt many loyalists would have supported dealing Jason Motte for two months of Will Ohman.

renomike99: Joe, how do "financial flexibility" and not resigning Russ Springer fit in the same sentence? Sure, the Cardinals have alot of right handed pitching in the bullpen. Unfortunately, most of that right-handed "depth" and all of the bullpen's left-handers, crashed and burned last year. On the other hand, Springer actually got people out. Russ appeared in 70 games, pitched at a 2.33 era, and allowed only 39 hits. That's very good, better than virtually anybody else in the sorry 2008 Cardinal bullpen. At last year's salary of around $3.5 million, Springer seems to me a bargain. Plus, he is a great guy in the clubhouse. I'd like to hear your thoughts on this. I'm afraid Cardinal management is making a big mistake here.

Joe Strauss: The Cardinals project Ryan Franklin as a set-up man for the to-be-determined closer. They have Perez and Motte, one of whom likely will start next season in Memphis should a closer be acquired. Kyle McClellan took over Springer's projected role this season, making Springer's salary somewhat out of line with his responsibilities. The better question would appear to be: Can McClellan be trusted with the 7th/8th innings while making less than $500,000 or is 40-year-old Springer needed. There's a legitimate debate to be had. However, if the Cardinals had offered Springer arbitration they could have been left in the air about his '09 salary until February.

KC in Bham: Hey Joe, I’m a longtime reader of the tsunami express, and this is my first time submitting a question. With the Cardinals declining arbitration to Looper, Lopez, and Springer, should we expect a big splash in free agency, hopefully making a serious run after Furcal, Fuentes, or Hudson? Second, how interested are the Cardinals in obtaining a left handed starter, preferably Randy Johnson or Wolf? Third, I’m a huge Ludwick fan and would like to know what the possibility (%) of him sticking around is vs the percentage likely hood for Ankiel being traded?
Thanks KC

Joe Strauss: I expect the Cardinals will try to spread their resources rather than concentrate them on 1-2 players. The Cardinals have made no move toward Johnson and don't appear willing to invest more than $10 million per year for 3-4 seasons in Fuentes. Furcal remains an intriguing possibility but has a history of back problems, a significant factor for an organzition increasingly sensitive about its perceived blind spot toward health risks. As stated before, Ludwick remains the Cardinals' most valuable trading chip.

Rich: Thanks for the time, Joe. Nothing like a tsunami to warm up the hot stove, eh?

I get the sense that Mo is playing poker here. It seems like he's checked and wants to see how everyone else bets before making his move. Last spring's Lohse move worked out well with that stategy. Is that the modus operandi here too? I can see Mo waiting for the big boys to move and then trying to pick up the leftovers for cheap.

If in fact that's the move, what players do you see falling through the cracks and begging for an offer in January?

Also, what will it take for Duncan to build his trade value? I can't bear the thought of watching him play left field again. Seeing him stumble after fly balls makes me think I had a better shot at the major league than my coaches said. ;-)

Thanks again.

Joe Strauss: You're onto something. I believe Mo' will be revealed as "slow-play" poker player, much as was his predecessor. The word is "value." We'll see what the actual market is for second-tier starting pitchers like Oliver Perez and Looper is. Maybe Jon Garland as well. There is always a Boras client (Weaver, Lohse) hurt by overplaying the market. Yet to be factored are those players non-tendered by current teams. A flooded market is a buyer's market.

Steven: El Diablo--

I have a growing suspicion that the Cardinals will be sorting through the litter bins in February trying to see what pieces there are left to pick up. At what point does credibility become a major issue for Bill DeWitt and Co? Every year (granted this one isn't over or really started), they continue to talk about being aggressive and in the end they're dumpster diving. I'm assuming they aren't in on any of the tier 2 big names (Hudson, Furcal)?

Joe Strauss: I wouldn't go along with your assumption yet. After two consecutive playoff misses and a sub-.500 record since mid-May 2006, this club is facing its most serious credibility test in nearly a decade. However, the fan base validated the approach with more than 3.4 million attendance last season. The fans ultimately judge what's going on. So far, they haven't voted with their feet.

Tom: Chatmeister,

Double down on Josh Kinney as our 2009 closer? A risky bet, but may have high reward.

tom

Joe Strauss: Kinney is an intriguing variable whose return influenced the move with Russ Springer.

Andy: Joe,

What are the chances that after the winter meetings the Cardinals are minus an outfielder? Who will it be and who might we get in return? Please do not say that it will be Ludwick!

Thanks,
Andy - Des Moines

Joe Strauss: Ludwick and Schumaker are the leading trade possibilities. Schumaker likely would be included as part of a package. Rasmus projects as Schumaker's replacement short-term and may assume Ankiel's role after 2009.

Nick: Since their is a great demand in baseball for "left handed relievers" why don't they use Ankiel? He would be the first (at least that I know of) position player that could shift from OF to pitcher then back to the OF and still be able to be brought in to pitch to the next left handed batter. Now that he's made it back as a position player it doesn't seem like much of a gamble (at least to try it out). But, if it worked, Boris would have a "field day" with Ankiel's next contract...$20mil/yr at 5 years...EEKS!

Joe Strauss: Counselors are standing by waiting to help, sir.

Jeepster: Joe: Are we to believe that Mozeliak didn't know about Miller's previous shoulder surgery before he came to St. Louis for his physical? How could he not? Smells like more B.S. from the front office.

Joe Strauss: Fair to say Mo' had no idea what the physicals would reveal. The club is taking a harsher view of signing health risks after the last two seasons' fiascos. Just as the Tino Martinez boondoggle scared the club from pursuing marquee free agent position players, Mark Mulder's two-year deal signed after 2006 has underscored the risk in "betting on the come." The Cardinals received one win total from Mulder and Chris Carpenter since signing them to deals worth nearly $80 million following the World Series win. I wouldn't call it front office BS, but I would say it's cause for concern when Trever Miller remains the most prominent issue to date.

Ralph: Oh wise one,

What do you think about the idea of trying Carpenter as the closer this year (a la John Smoltz), if his injuries prevent him from starting every 5 days? Maybe going every other day would be just as much of a strain on his arm, but with fewer pitches? Then sign a starter to a 1 year deal (Randy Johnson) until Carp can come back in 2010?

Joe Strauss: Any projections for Carpenter are presumptuous at this point.

dsp763: Joe:
Great timing for a Cardinals chat. My question is, how bad would it be if the Birds were to re-sign Izturis and Lopez (for reasonable money) and then blow the rest of the money (assuming there is enough) and just buy Fuentes and Lowe ? Is this a financial pipe dream ? Would about $20 million a year pay for both Lowe(spelling?) and Fuentes ?
Thanks again for Your time,
Dave

Joe Strauss: The Cardinals remain counter to committing long-term for pitching, especially with Perez and Motte suggesting a return on investment. At some point, however, the Cardinals are going to have to commit long-term to starting pitching. Most non-biased observers believe the minor-league system remains thin on starting pitching. Adam Ottavino, Mitchell Boggs, P.J. Walters and Clayton Mortenson are possibilities, but hardly given. Ottavino has finally rediscovered his mechanics after some ill-advised tinkering last season. Mortenson has been rushed to his detriment, many believe, but could rebound next season. Interesting that former supplemental rounder Mark McCormick was not added to the 40-man and may be lost in next week's Rule 5 draft.

Mathias: Joe - Big fan of your work. Could you tell me a little bit more about Escobar from the Braves.. I keep hearing his name pop up in all sorts of trade rumors, probably as much as anybody I have been reading about. Would a guy like that be worth parting with a guy like Ludwick in your estimation?

Joe Strauss: Escobar may be the NL's best SS in 2-3 years. He is a legitimate offensive player and a gifted defender. He carries an iffy reputation as a clubhouse presence and may have worn on Braves Mgr. Bobby Cox, regarded as the consummate players' manager. Ludwick has a checkered health history and represents the ultimate "sell-high" opportunity. It is easier to find an impact outfielder than an impact SS, leading the Cardinals to examine whether to use what may be fleeting leverage. I like Ludwick as a player. He's a plus defender. Yes, he strikes out a ton. But his production-per-hit is outstanding for a .300 bat. I haven't seen the team medicals on him. Obviously, the team has medical information we have not seen.

Pujols5: Mr. Tsunami:

Is the expected health of Chris Duncan the impetus behind the dangling of Ludwick this winter? If so, a misguided thought in my opinion.

Also, I expect a Gator beatdown against your Alabama, your thoughts>

Are you laying or giving the pts with Mizzou-Oklahoma.

Give us a couple of sleeper college basketball teams this winter.

Joe Strauss: You're misinformed, P5. I've been on the Gator bandwagon all season. This week's Alabama-UF game is the true national championship game. I expect a 'Bama beatdown. I'm taking Mizzou and the points. Believe it or not, I project Missouri as a surprise nationally. A soft non-conference schedule and a down Big 12 may allow them to surface in the Top 25. They should have beaten Xavier in Puerto Rico. I don't know about surprises. Duke may be better than expected. Pitt looks like a monster.

KY_CUB_KILLER: Who is known to currently be holding offers from the Cards? I know Miller and Rhodes. It has been reported that there is other offers out but do we know as to who?

Joe Strauss: FLASH!!! The Cardinals have signed T. Miller to a ONE-year deal. Details forthcoming.

stuck in iowa: If Rhodes signs with the Reds, what FA LHRPs remain that are likely sign with the Cards? I'm assuming someone like Fuentes is way out of their price range. If we can't even come to terms with Miller ... I'm wondering who the heck is out there that we can come to terms with.

Joe Strauss: Joe Beimel makes a lot of sense.

Jeepster: Joe: Sounds crazy but why is Yadier Molina considered to be so hands off as far as a trading chip goes? The Cards have a left handed hitting catcher waiting in the minors and could probably bridge this season for him with LaRue and another fringe big leaguer. You previously mentioned Ludwick as being one of the more viable trade chips and I don't understand why Molina is considered "hands off" since he'd obviously bring a lot in return.

Joe Strauss: Bryan Anderson is not perceived as a starting major-league catcher. Serious concerns exist about his arm. The Cardinals tout him as an elite prospect but are unable to project him for themselves. I believe it very possible he could land elsewhere this winter.

DCGreg: Joe,

Please answer the burning question: Who was at the top of your MVP ballot?

Joe Strauss: El Hombre.

Jeepster: Joe: When will we know about Carpenter's status? I have a feeling it will convenietly held back until after the winter meetings.

Joe Strauss: I politely disagree. Stay tuned.

Scott0688: Joe, you have often mentioned in your chats that this offseason is a big credibility test for the front office/ownership. From what you are hearing and the way things are going now, do you expect them to pass this test? For the past couple years we've heard that 2009 was going to be the big season because all kinds of money is coming off the books. Well, we're almost there and I have seen absolutely no indication that there will be any difference from the past 3-4 years.

Joe Strauss: How can you ask such a question when the club just signed Trever Miller? Seriously, the Cardinals are on pace with the market. Don't take it personally, but some Cards fans have adopted tunnel vision and aren't fully aware of what's going on in the industry. If no impact move is made before next season, it's fair to say they have failed the test. I expect an impact move, either for a middle infielder or a starting pitcher. It is interesting to note, though, how a 2006 World Champion has fostered such cynicism within its fan base. That can become a dangerous thing, as I witnessed in Baltimore from 1998-2001.

Brian, New Denver, BC: Hi Joe:

Thanks for answering the fans' questions. What do see as the top priority, if any, during the winter meetings, as opposed to priorities that can be resolved later, and how do you suggest that management deal with the top priority?

Joe Strauss: LH relief and at least half the middle infield equation should be the first addressed. I think it's fair to suggest the club come off it's longstanding reluctance to pay decent $$$ for a starting second baseman. There is no looming organizational alternative there, despite recent enthusiasm for Tyler Greene. I would expect Adam Kennedy to be moved by Christmas.

Joe Strauss: That's going to have to do it for this week. Again, there's a decent possibility we may hold at least two chats from Las Vegas, likely beginning at Noon Central Time. Stay tuned. All the ChatMeister wants is a new board for Christmas.