If the preliminary guild awards are any indication--and they usually are--The Artist" and "The Help" will strike gold at the Oscar ceremony.

"The Artist," a black-and-white silent melodrama about the advent of cinema sound, won best picture from the Producers Guild on Jan. 21. Its director, Michel Hazanivicius, won the top prize from the Director's Guild on Jan. 28. And its star, Frenchman Jean Dujardin, was named best actor by the Screen Actors Guild on Jan. 29.

Because actors are the largest voting bloc in the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, the SAG awards are a reliable predictor of Oscar success. That bodes well for Dujardin and for best supporting actor honoree Christopher Plummer of "Beginners." And it burnishes the Oscar potential of "The Help," which won best actress for Viola Davis, best supporting actress for Octavia Spencer and best ensemble cast.

On Monday, the Writer's Guild named Tate Taylor, the writer and director of "The Help," the winner of the annual Paul Selvin Award, which honors work that "embodies the spirit of constitutional rights and civil liberties." The Writer's Guild ceremony, the last of the major pre-Oscar events, is set for Feb. 19.

"The Help" is nominated for four academy awards. "The Artist" is nominated for ten. Both films are competing for best picture.

The Academy Awards are Feb. 26 in Hollywood.