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In Hindsight: The Holliday Trade
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407CardsFan
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Post subject: In Hindsight: The Holliday Trade
Posted: 05 Nov 2009 10:41 am
I may be beating a dead horse with this one and I apologize if there were already threads like this as I don't remember seeing one. But if there is....my bad.

Now that the season is over and the dust is starting to settle. What are everyone's thoughts on the Holliday trade? I will be the first to admit, at the time, I loved it! I was thrilled that the front office was doing everything they could to field a "winning team."

At the time of the trade, people here were discussing whether it was a good or a bad trade, for several reasons (money to tie him up, it is only successful if we win the world series and so on and so forth). At the time, I was extremely optimistic when it came to the Cards ability to resign him. Now?......not so much.

So in a nutshell, we gave Oakland a great package, including Wallace, for Holliday. We didn't win a postseason game. We have a depleted farm system with no really valuable trade chips. And now, odds are that Holliday will sign elsewhere. Even though I loved it at the time, I remember saying "This trade will be a failure if we can't resign him." And if we can't, God help us, because we will be in some dire straights next season.

I don't want to be overly negative right now. But the Free Agent class is VERY thin this year, and we don't really have the trade chips to bring in another big bat. And if we fail to sign Holliday......I just have a bad feeling.

NOTE: I do understand that it is not wise to put $45 million of the payroll into two players, BUT what should we do instead and still improve the team?

Thoughts?

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Harvey
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Post subject: Re: In Hindsight: The Holliday Trade
Posted: 05 Nov 2009 10:47 am
Until he does or doesn't re-sign, I really can't comment.

I sure enjoyed the run we made, though. Until we got him, I was fearful that the Cubs may beat us out. The trade may not have gotten us much in the postseason, but it caused the Cubs to implode...which is always worthwhile.

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richiro33
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Post subject: Re: In Hindsight: The Holliday Trade
Posted: 05 Nov 2009 10:47 am
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As of: Nov 6, 2009 5:04:pm
By: mikesmith
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407CardsFan
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Post subject: Re: In Hindsight: The Holliday Trade
Posted: 05 Nov 2009 10:49 am

Harvey wrote

Until he does or doesn't re-sign, I really can't comment.

I sure enjoyed the run we made, though. Until we got him, I was fearful that the Cubs may beat us out. The trade may not have gotten us much in the postseason, but it caused the Cubs to implode...which is always worthwhile.


That's understandable, I don't like assuming he wont resign either. But for the sake of discussion, if he did. What course of action would you think the Cards should take?

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jay16
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Post subject: Re: In Hindsight: The Holliday Trade
Posted: 05 Nov 2009 11:21 am

Quote

So in a nutshell, we gave Oakland a great package, including Wallace, for Holliday. We didn't win a postseason game

They didn't win a post season game, but they were in position to make a run. That's all you can ask for. Trades are risky, I trust the FO to weigh their options and make calculated decisions. Wallace had no place in the organization and they got a quality player in return.

Quote

We have a depleted farm system with no really valuable trade chips

Really? Are you sure about that? And why do they have to be trade chips, can't the Cardinals have players in their system that play for the Cardinals?

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And now, odds are that Holliday will sign elsewhere.

Really? I haven't seen those odds. What are they? Did a vegas book make them, or are you just guessing?

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vikelt
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Post subject: Re: In Hindsight: The Holliday Trade
Posted: 05 Nov 2009 11:55 am
earlier post:
"If he signs elsewhere we get 2 more draft pics so hopefully some of that money can go toward a great prospect."
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However, if Cards have to go to free agency to sign replacement such as Abreu, Cards will be giving up two draft picks.

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Rambling
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Post subject: Re: In Hindsight: The Holliday Trade
Posted: 05 Nov 2009 12:18 pm

Harvey wrote

Until he does or doesn't re-sign, I really can't comment.

I sure enjoyed the run we made, though. Until we got him, I was fearful that the Cubs may beat us out. The trade may not have gotten us much in the postseason, but it caused the Cubs to implode...which is always worthwhile.


The Cubs implosion had nothing to do with getting Holliday. The Cubs ran themselves out of the playoff hunt before we played a single game against them with Holliday.

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Michael S.
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Post subject: Re: In Hindsight: The Holliday Trade
Posted: 05 Nov 2009 12:46 pm
Being completely honest: when it was announced that the Cardinals who had said they were looking to emphasize building through the farm system, traded Brett Wallace, Clayton Mortensen, & Shane Petersen to Oakland for Matt Holliday, this was my original comment:

"Billy Beane 2, Cardinals 0."

After getting talked down from the ledge, I decided to look at the positives of the trade, being that Holliday was to provide the protection to Pujols and juice to the offense and that he would either sign long-term in St. Louis or the Cardinals would get 2 1st-round picks as a chance to replace a Wallace, Mortensen, or Petersen. Plus, this looked like the classic Jocketty trade: IF the club retained the superstar in a long-term extension.

Brett Wallace, if you felt he wouldn't make it as a 3rd baseman in the majors, was still the ultimate trade chip that if you had to target any one player (Roy Halladay or Matt Holliday) in MLB to add, being able to give them Wallace would make it happen. Clayton Mortensen was considered the best starting pitcher in the system that needed help at the back end of its MLB rotation. Peterson was the classic young OF prospect, still in A ball years away but looked alright. St. Louis must be confident in their ability to draft similar players or they wouldn't have cashed in the chips.

Now, the Cardinals are back to square one. At some point, Wallace will mash but be moved to first base/DH. At some point, Mortensen will spot fastballs for strikes to get ahead of hitters and he will be a nasty pitcher, but not an ace. At some point, we will hear Peterson's name in AAA or MLB but not blink. Ultimately, I consider the trade a loss IF Holliday doesn't sign long-term with the Cardinals, which given the bickering on finances & Scott Boras seemed not likely from the start.

The real reason I would consider it a loss is that Brett Wallace was the ultimate trade chip that the Cardinals could have used to land any player to fill any need. To see it be used plus prospects for a 2-month rental, whoever it was, makes the trade a loss.

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vikelt
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Post subject: Re: In Hindsight: The Holliday Trade
Posted: 05 Nov 2009 13:02 pm
The day before the Holliday deal, Gordo wrote a column advising against it. I agreed, believing as did he, that Boras and Holliday would go for 20 million a year and the Cards could not afford it.

At the time, there were rumors that the Cards would instead deal for Dunn. I have never been a Dunn fan but he was signed for 2010 at an affordable price. I thought it would be the better deal and give the Cards a left handed bat between Pujols and Ludwick.

When Holliday came and did super star stats, I still thought he would not re-sign but convinced myself that if he got the Cards to the World Series it would be worth it.

The Cards rolled the dice and lost. [Yes, i am assuming Holliday will not re-sign.]

The other part of the equation for which I have never been able to get an answer through Straus or Gordo - did the Cards actually make an effort to get Cliff Lee? What is said is the Cards could not match the Phillies package. I dispute that. But the question remains - did the Cards actually try to get him?

Dunn and Lee = World Series for Cards?

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Post subject: Re: In Hindsight: The Holliday Trade
Posted: 05 Nov 2009 13:07 pm
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As of: Nov 6, 2009 5:04:pm
By: mikesmith
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314sportsfan
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Post subject: Re: In Hindsight: The Holliday Trade
Posted: 05 Nov 2009 13:10 pm

vikelt wrote



Dunn and Lee = World Series for Cards?


we probably could have matched Philly's package for Lee, but I don't think we'd have had the pieces still to also get Dunn.

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Post subject: Re: In Hindsight: The Holliday Trade
Posted: 05 Nov 2009 13:11 pm
A lot of people were saying that it was reckless to trade away the best prospect in your system, who was considered and allstar caliber player by many outside scouting organizations like Baseball America, for a veteran without having some sort of groundwork for a long term deal established.

They never had a deal in place, which too me meant they knew they never had a serious chance to re-sign him in the first place. Which I guess is ok, but those are the types of moves that can set your franchise back five or six years, if you screwed up.

I don't that he is going to stay in St. Louis, but if he does I will be happy about it, even though the money that it will take to keep him would probably make payroll flexibility a lot tighter than it is right now.

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