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Not a Dunn deal
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PacNWCardsFan
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Post subject: Re: Not a Dunn deal
Posted: 07 Nov 2009 00:11 am
HRs is not the big deal to me. Gap power and XBH are important. Dunn and Bay have a higher % of their hits are XBH, they also K alot more than Luddy or Holiday.

As for Fielding, Holliday is actually better than Luddy in the field. Of course Bay and Dunn are dismal.

Nady is about the same in the field as Luddy, hits about the same as well.
Derosa plays good D in the field,

Figgins isnt the same position, last played OF regularly back in 2006. He is an excellent 3B. Hits better than Luddy but alot less power.

I wouldnt be opposed to DeRo in LF and Figgins at 3B. Freese on the bench, Figgin's splits are great against LH so let Freese play against those.
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BirdsBacker
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Post subject: Not a Dunn deal
Posted: 07 Nov 2009 00:39 am
Solid argument gm. It comes down to personal preference I guess. I prefer option #1. I wish that Ryan could handle the leadoff spot and do some running in front of Rasmus. Skip is a great OBP guy but does not steal bases. Put Skip in the 8 hole and let him help turn the lineup over by getting on ahead of the pitcher.
Ryan
Colby
AP
Holliday
Luddy
Yadi
Freese
Skip

I really don't see the Cards being able to re-sign Holliday though.
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PacNWCardsFan
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Post subject: Re: Not a Dunn deal
Posted: 07 Nov 2009 01:09 am
I know most will hate this idea but here we go. If unable to get Holiday I thought of this. Keep in mind these number are guesses but realistic.

Sign Derosa($6M per), Figgins($10M per), Polanco($5M per), Gonzalez($4M per), Smoltz($6.5M) all are max for 2010. Give a lineup something like this:

Figgins-3B-.291/.363/.388/.751
Polanco-2B-.303/.348/.414/.761
AP-1B-.334/.427/.628/1.055
Ludwick-RF-.271/.340/.493/.833
DeRosa-LF-.275/.343/.424/.767
Rasmus-CF-.251/.307/.407/.714
Molina-C-.269/.327/.365/.692
Ryan-SS-.279/.333/.373/.706
Pitcher
Rotation: Carp, Waino, Lohse, Smoltz, Garcia
Bullpen: Franklin, Miller, Reyes, Gonzalez, KMac, Motte, Hawks
Bench: Lugo, Skip, Freese, Craig, Pagnozzi/C
Total Salaries for 25 man roster: $98M
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Memphis25
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Post subject: Re: Not a Dunn deal
Posted: 07 Nov 2009 01:19 am
Not enough pop PacNWCardsFan.
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Memphis25
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Post subject: Re: Not a Dunn deal
Posted: 07 Nov 2009 01:46 am
Dunn gets too much hate here, He only hit more DP's than B Ryan did this year once in his career in 200 more PA.

He's a far better player than people want to give him credit for if it ever happened and he came here people would see it quick, he and Pujols' Power/OBP could give us 3 100 RBI guys in the heart of the order with the 5th place hitter going to get to hit with RISP so much.
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PacNWCardsFan
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Post subject: Re: Not a Dunn deal
Posted: 07 Nov 2009 02:13 am
I went farther and ran a few formulas and came up with these numbers based on the roster I had. No pitchers included.

HRs-150, 2B-284, 3B-31, R-777, RBIs-715:projected
HRs-160, 2B-294, 3B-29, R-730, RBIs-694:2009

A slight drop in XBHs but 47 additional runs scored which if era remained near the same would equate to more victories.
If pop is really important, resign Glaus and hope he returns to his career norms:.255/.359/.497/.856; 27HR(+22)/96runs(-7)/101rbis(+42).[compared to Figgins]
FWIW, I have nothing against Dunn. I worry about his fielding which is terrible, Bay is just as bad. The lineup I used is above average fielding at all positions.
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Post subject: Re: Not a Dunn deal
Posted: 07 Nov 2009 02:51 am
If they manage to get Holliday I thought of this. Keep in mind these number are guesses but realistic.

Sign Holliday($19M per), Polanco($5M per), Gonzalez($4M per), Smoltz($6.5M) all are max for 2010. Give a lineup something like this:

Ryan-SS-.279/.333/.373/.706
Polanco-2B-.303/.348/.414/.761
AP-1B-.334/.427/.628/1.055
Holliday-LF-.318/.387/.545/.933
Ludwick-RF-.271/.340/.493/.833
Rasmus-CF-.251/.307/.407/.714
Molina-C-.269/.327/.365/.692
Freese-3B.280/.345/.485/.800* best guess
Pitcher
Rotation: Carp, Waino, Lohse, Smoltz, Garcia
Bullpen: Franklin, Miller, Reyes, Gonzalez, KMac, Motte, Hawks
Bench: Lugo, Skip,Mather/Jay, Craig, Pagnozzi/C
Total Salaries for 25 man roster: $101M
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ace-king
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Post subject: Re: Not a Dunn deal
Posted: 07 Nov 2009 04:41 am

Memphis25 wrote

Not enough pop PacNWCardsFan.

I like PacN's line-up a lot! Lots more running, hit-and-run, simply lots more pressure on the pitchers. Figgins patience at the plate at the top of the line-up could translate to lots of good things - hopefully leading to same patience by other hitters. I have no "formulas" to judge whether his +47 runs (compared to this year) is correct - but 47 more runs - this PAST year - would have given us home field advantage for the entire playoffs - and who knows?
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PacNWCardsFan
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Post subject: Re: Not a Dunn deal
Posted: 07 Nov 2009 04:47 am

ace-king wrote

Memphis25 wrote

Not enough pop PacNWCardsFan.

I like PacN's line-up a lot! Lots more running, hit-and-run, simply lots more pressure on the pitchers. Figgins patience at the plate at the top of the line-up could translate to lots of good things - hopefully leading to same patience by other hitters. I have no "formulas" to judge whether his +47 runs (compared to this year) is correct - but 47 more runs - this PAST year - would have given us home field advantage for the entire playoffs - and who knows?


The run totals are just taking all the information I could find and using average production for each player. The hard part was the bench guys as there is no set number of ABs for those guys. Its all a guess really as who knows who will have an up or down year etc. Most of the stats are based on 650 ABs per position per season. 162 games @ 4ABs per game is 648 so figure from there. Its a fair estimate but no where near perfect.
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ace-king
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Post subject: Re: Not a Dunn deal
Posted: 07 Nov 2009 05:14 am

futuregm wrote

BirdsBacker wrote

I agree with alot of your argument. I just think that you need to keep Ludwick and ADD another instead of Addition by Subtraction. I liked the "stretched" lineup when DeRo and Holliday joined the lineup instead of giving away innings once you got past the #4 hitter.


That's essentially what you could be trying to do though if you traded Ludwick.

Figure that Ludwick will make 4-5 million this year and that's conservative IMO, and you'd figure that Holliday will cost minimum 18 million a year, probably $20 million a year. So, you could have these options.

Sign Holliday to that, and go with Freese at third base, which really isn't a bad option.

Or trade Ludwick and Boggs for Dunn
Sign Figgins to a 3 year/$27-30 million deal
Sign Nady (1 year/$6 million incentives based) or DeRo (2 years/$12 million).


Option A:
1. Schumaker
2. Rasmus
3. Pujols
4. Holliday
5. Ludwick
6. Freese
7. Molina
8. Ryan
9. Pitcher

Option B:
1. Figgins
2. Schumaker
3. Pujols
4. Dunn
5. Nady/DeRosa
6. Rasmus
7. Molina
8. Ryan
9. Pitcher


I don't mind either lineup, but I do prefer option B.

Line-up A - I don't understand at all. It's this year's stagnant lineup, with Freese instead of Derosa. As bad ad Derosa was with his wrist injury, he still got 10 HRs and 28 RBIs in half a season - you SURE that a Rookie is going to up those numbers that much? I mean we lagged the Phils by 90 runs and even the Dodgers by 50. The good Cards teams - 2004-5, like the Phils and Rockies this year, score 800+ - and I don't see your line-up A come even close. Your line-up A, with Ryan leading off, Derosa playing 2ndB and hitting 6th or 7th - now that line-up has a chance to score some runs.
Lineup B is interesting. You basically replace Holliday by Dunn (slight, but acceptable down-grade), Ludwick by Nady/Derosa (doubt that will produce more RBIs than Luddy's 97), and Derosa at 3rd by Figgins (big upgrade in speed and OBP, but at a loss in power and RBIs). Do these three trade-ffs produce an increment in runs scored? Personally, I don't think so. Now, if you put Figgins or Derosa at 2nd B (Figgins played 2nd b earlier in his career), now you've got an improved line-up (still assumes Nady, backed up by Craig, in RF).
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espritdesstlouis
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Post subject: Re: Not a Dunn deal
Posted: 07 Nov 2009 08:20 am

PacNWCardsFan wrote

If they manage to get Holliday I thought of this. Keep in mind these number are guesses but realistic.

Sign Holliday($19M per), Polanco($5M per), Gonzalez($4M per), Smoltz($6.5M) all are max for 2010. Give a lineup something like this:

Ryan-SS-.279/.333/.373/.706
Polanco-2B-.303/.348/.414/.761
AP-1B-.334/.427/.628/1.055
Holliday-LF-.318/.387/.545/.933
Ludwick-RF-.271/.340/.493/.833
Rasmus-CF-.251/.307/.407/.714
Molina-C-.269/.327/.365/.692
Freese-3B.280/.345/.485/.800* best guess
Pitcher
Rotation: Carp, Waino, Lohse, Smoltz, Garcia
Bullpen: Franklin, Miller, Reyes, Gonzalez, KMac, Motte, Hawks
Bench: Lugo, Skip,Mather/Jay, Craig, Pagnozzi/C
Total Salaries for 25 man roster: $101M


If the Cardinals can sign Holliday, IMO, I don't think they would pony up for Polanco when they have a much cheaper Schu at 2B ( who is also younger ).

As much as a like Gonzalez, I don't see the Cardinals carrying 3 lefties out of the pen, unless maybe Royce Ring.

Mo said that the bullpen is set, anyway.

If the Cardinals sign Holliday, the only other money I see them spending is for a #4 starter.
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PacNWCardsFan
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Post subject: Re: Not a Dunn deal
Posted: 07 Nov 2009 10:09 am

espritdesstlouis wrote

PacNWCardsFan wrote

If they manage to get Holliday I thought of this. Keep in mind these number are guesses but realistic.

Sign Holliday($19M per), Polanco($5M per), Gonzalez($4M per), Smoltz($6.5M) all are max for 2010. Give a lineup something like this:

Ryan-SS-.279/.333/.373/.706
Polanco-2B-.303/.348/.414/.761
AP-1B-.334/.427/.628/1.055
Holliday-LF-.318/.387/.545/.933
Ludwick-RF-.271/.340/.493/.833
Rasmus-CF-.251/.307/.407/.714
Molina-C-.269/.327/.365/.692
Freese-3B.280/.345/.485/.800* best guess
Pitcher
Rotation: Carp, Waino, Lohse, Smoltz, Garcia
Bullpen: Franklin, Miller, Reyes, Gonzalez, KMac, Motte, Hawks
Bench: Lugo, Skip,Mather/Jay, Craig, Pagnozzi/C
Total Salaries for 25 man roster: $101M


If the Cardinals can sign Holliday, IMO, I don't think they would pony up for Polanco when they have a much cheaper Schu at 2B ( who is also younger ).

As much as a like Gonzalez, I don't see the Cardinals carrying 3 lefties out of the pen, unless maybe Royce Ring.

Mo said that the bullpen is set, anyway.

If the Cardinals sign Holliday, the only other money I see them spending is for a #4 starter.


I have the 4th starter in there in Smoltz, but thinking maybe chance on Lowry or Sheets. As for Skip, I dont really count him as a young 2B. He is a poor fielding 2B. The price for Polanco and Gonzo(backup closer) should be within reason. I am sorry to all but Skip was a stopgap. In of a penny, in for a pound.
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