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Is reaching the Phils' level next year realistic?
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cardsfan1984
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Post subject: Re: Is reaching the Phils' level next year realistic?
Posted: 07 Nov 2009 21:51 pm
Even with a possible return of Matt Holliday, I can't even then honestly say that they Cardinals could be on the same level as the Phillies. Unless of course they find a way to get MVP caliber production from both middle infielders and have all of their outfielders have allstar caliber years. I'd put that at about a .05 percent chance of happening.

The Phillies are exceptional in every realm of the game except for one area, and thats relief pitching. I would think that they will move quickly to patch that hole they have up in the 8th or 9th inning.

The Cardinals even with Holliday, had trouble(still) hitting with runners in scoring position, getting on base, and running the bases. They are going to get worse next year with the back of their rotation, and I still think Kyle Lohse is not the pitcher he was in 2008, he is the pitcher he was every year before 2008. Add on to a suspect relief corp in the 8th and 9th, and we have a team that could reach the playoffs, but will probably be going home early again.

Unless, they fill those wholes with capable players of course.
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B_Ruby
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Post subject: Re: Is reaching the Phils' level next year realistic?
Posted: 08 Nov 2009 00:48 am

cardsfan1984 wrote

Even with a possible return of Matt Holliday, I can't even then honestly say that they Cardinals could be on the same level as the Phillies. Unless of course they find a way to get MVP caliber production from both middle infielders and have all of their outfielders have allstar caliber years. I'd put that at about a .05 percent chance of happening.

The Phillies are exceptional in every realm of the game except for one area, and thats relief pitching. I would think that they will move quickly to patch that hole they have up in the 8th or 9th inning.

The Cardinals even with Holliday, had trouble(still) hitting with runners in scoring position, getting on base, and running the bases. They are going to get worse next year with the back of their rotation, and I still think Kyle Lohse is not the pitcher he was in 2008, he is the pitcher he was every year before 2008. Add on to a suspect relief corp in the 8th and 9th, and we have a team that could reach the playoffs, but will probably be going home early again.

Unless, they fill those wholes with capable players of course.


As for filling "wholes".....

In Lohse's five starts in April of 2009, before he started suffering a series of injuries, he had a 1.97 ERA and 1.031 WHIP. Opposing batters were hitting a miniscule .216/.264/.302/.566 against him, and in one of his two no-decisions, he shut out the Braves over six innings and would have extended his record to 4-0, but Kyle McClellan uncharacteristically lost control in the 8th inning, walking three batters and giving up two runs to blow the save. Lohse helped the Cards stay in the race through April, especially after Carpenter's early-season rib cage injury.

Then in his first start in May, Lohse injured his leg on a play at first base. Following that, he was injured while batting, hit by a pitch. Then the nerve damage to the firearm.

So of course Lohse wasn't the pitcher he was in 2008, and the first 5 starts in 2009; he was hurt! He had never lost time to the DL before in his career. Lots of guys, especially pitchers, have a difficult time pitching their optimum best when hurt. So before engaging in premature speculation, let's see how he does after a winter of rest, rehab and restoration to good health before pronouncing him "the pitcher he was every year before 2008."

As for the claim that the Cards need to "find a way to get MVP caliber production from both middle infielders and have all of their outfielders have allstar caliber years," even if Holliday returns, it's nonsense.

What the Cards need out of their middle infielders is for Ryan to continue on his improving course, and play up to his capabilities. The Cards also need Schumaker to improve and for the Schu/Lugo tandem-platoon to continue to click, or find another 2B to play up to a higher level, not necessarily a MVP, or even an all-star. Schu is likely holding down 2B until AAA 2B Daniel Descalso is ready anyway.

What the Cards furthermore need is for more production out of 3B, and even Freese could probably deliver significantly more OPS than the Thurston/Barden/DeRosa debacle (.229 BA/65 RBI) in 2009. A healthy DeRosa should be able to significantly improve on that too, if his salary requirements correlate to his age and injury risk.

What the Cards further need is for Colby Rasmus to use his 2009 season as a learning experience both on and off the field (learning better nutrition), and fr him to continue to progress. He should continue to mature into the player that most scouts (not just the Cards' brass) think he is. Rasmus can, and will improve on a .307 OBP, and given maturity and better nutrition, he can avoid the health problems that led to his weight/muscle mass loss which caused his extra-base hit totals to dive in the 2nd half. Rasmus should be able to improve on the 20 HR/70 RBI/.248 BA totals that all the Cardinal center fielders delivered last year.

What the Cards need out of Ludwick is for him to continue to drive in runs per at bat at about the same rate which he has done since he joined the Cardinals (an RBI/5.01 AB). McGwire should furthermore help Ludwick with his pitch selection so as to get Luddy back to his higher OBP as he had in 2008, even if he doesn't hit over 30 HR.

By the way, the only Phillie who drives in runs at a greater pace is Ryan Howard (4.91). Not Werth, Ibaez, or anyone else drives in runs like Ludwick, Chase Utley included (Utley's pace in the last 5 years is one RBI every 5.73 AB.)

What the Cards need out of left field isn't necessarily an all-star performer; in 2005 a committee in LF of Reggie Sanders, John Mabry, John Rodriguez, So Taguchi, John Gall and a few others gave them 104 RBI/.281 BA while playing LF, without an all-star among them. http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/split.cgi?t=b&team=STL&year=2005#defp

That kind of collective total in LF would be enough, especially if at the same time they can get a repeat from Ludwick in RF (100-105 RBI) and a significant improvement from Rasmus in CF.

What the Cards further need is for Motte to get a 2nd effective pitch to compliment his fastball and move ever closer in readiness to eventually replace Franklin, and in the meantime be able to compliment Franklin as an alternate closer. Or for this end-game group in the bullpen to do well enough as a bridge this season until Eduardo Sanchez is ready to take the closer's responsibilities, whether near the end of 2010 (a la Todd Worrel's August call up in 1985) or beginning in 2011.
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cardsfan1984
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Post subject: Re: Is reaching the Phils' level next year realistic?
Posted: 08 Nov 2009 03:07 am

B_Ruby wrote

cardsfan1984 wrote

Even with a possible return of Matt Holliday, I can't even then honestly say that they Cardinals could be on the same level as the Phillies. Unless of course they find a way to get MVP caliber production from both middle infielders and have all of their outfielders have allstar caliber years. I'd put that at about a .05 percent chance of happening.

The Phillies are exceptional in every realm of the game except for one area, and thats relief pitching. I would think that they will move quickly to patch that hole they have up in the 8th or 9th inning.

The Cardinals even with Holliday, had trouble(still) hitting with runners in scoring position, getting on base, and running the bases. They are going to get worse next year with the back of their rotation, and I still think Kyle Lohse is not the pitcher he was in 2008, he is the pitcher he was every year before 2008. Add on to a suspect relief corp in the 8th and 9th, and we have a team that could reach the playoffs, but will probably be going home early again.

Unless, they fill those wholes with capable players of course.


As for filling "wholes".....

In Lohse's five starts in April of 2009, before he started suffering a series of injuries, he had a 1.97 ERA and 1.031 WHIP. Opposing batters were hitting a miniscule .216/.264/.302/.566 against him, and in one of his two no-decisions, he shut out the Braves over six innings and would have extended his record to 4-0, but Kyle McClellan uncharacteristically lost control in the 8th inning, walking three batters and giving up two runs to blow the save. Lohse helped the Cards stay in the race through April, especially after Carpenter's early-season rib cage injury.

Then in his first start in May, Lohse injured his leg on a play at first base. Following that, he was injured while batting, hit by a pitch. Then the nerve damage to the firearm.

So of course Lohse wasn't the pitcher he was in 2008, and the first 5 starts in 2009; he was hurt! He had never lost time to the DL before in his career. Lots of guys, especially pitchers, have a difficult time pitching their optimum best when hurt. So before engaging in premature speculation, let's see how he does after a winter of rest, rehab and restoration to good health before pronouncing him "the pitcher he was every year before 2008."

As for the claim that the Cards need to "find a way to get MVP caliber production from both middle infielders and have all of their outfielders have allstar caliber years," even if Holliday returns, it's nonsense.

What the Cards need out of their middle infielders is for Ryan to continue on his improving course, and play up to his capabilities. The Cards also need Schumaker to improve and for the Schu/Lugo tandem-platoon to continue to click, or find another 2B to play up to a higher level, not necessarily a MVP, or even an all-star. Schu is likely holding down 2B until AAA 2B Daniel Descalso is ready anyway.

What the Cards furthermore need is for more production out of 3B, and even Freese could probably deliver significantly more OPS than the Thurston/Barden/DeRosa debacle (.229 BA/65 RBI) in 2009. A healthy DeRosa should be able to significantly improve on that too, if his salary requirements correlate to his age and injury risk.

What the Cards further need is for Colby Rasmus to use his 2009 season as a learning experience both on and off the field (learning better nutrition), and fr him to continue to progress. He should continue to mature into the player that most scouts (not just the Cards' brass) think he is. Rasmus can, and will improve on a .307 OBP, and given maturity and better nutrition, he can avoid the health problems that led to his weight/muscle mass loss which caused his extra-base hit totals to dive in the 2nd half. Rasmus should be able to improve on the 20 HR/70 RBI/.248 BA totals that all the Cardinal center fielders delivered last year.

What the Cards need out of Ludwick is for him to continue to drive in runs per at bat at about the same rate which he has done since he joined the Cardinals (an RBI/5.01 AB). McGwire should furthermore help Ludwick with his pitch selection so as to get Luddy back to his higher OBP as he had in 2008, even if he doesn't hit over 30 HR.

By the way, the only Phillie who drives in runs at a greater pace is Ryan Howard (4.91). Not Werth, Ibaez, or anyone else drives in runs like Ludwick, Chase Utley included (Utley's pace in the last 5 years is one RBI every 5.73 AB.)

What the Cards need out of left field isn't necessarily an all-star performer; in 2005 a committee in LF of Reggie Sanders, John Mabry, John Rodriguez, So Taguchi, John Gall and a few others gave them 104 RBI/.281 BA while playing LF, without an all-star among them. http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/split.cgi?t=b&team=STL&year=2005#defp

That kind of collective total in LF would be enough, especially if at the same time they can get a repeat from Ludwick in RF (100-105 RBI) and a significant improvement from Rasmus in CF.

What the Cards further need is for Motte to get a 2nd effective pitch to compliment his fastball and move ever closer in readiness to eventually replace Franklin, and in the meantime be able to compliment Franklin as an alternate closer. Or for this end-game group in the bullpen to do well enough as a bridge this season until Eduardo Sanchez is ready to take the closer's responsibilities, whether near the end of 2010 (a la Todd Worrel's August call up in 1985) or beginning in 2011.


Thank you for bringing me to the realization, that all one writes or says, can be discredited by something as simple as an incorrect homonym.
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B_Ruby
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Post subject: Re: Is reaching the Phils' level next year realistic?
Posted: 08 Nov 2009 03:17 am

cardsfan1984 wrote

Thank you for bringing me to the realization, that all one writes or says, can be discredited by something as simple as an incorrect homonym.


You weren't discredited by a mere misspelling, but your conclusion somewhat discredits itself when you rely on exaggerations for support.
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Post subject: Re: Is reaching the Phils' level next year realistic?
Posted: 08 Nov 2009 03:47 am
Brendan Ryan started 87 of the Cards' last 116 games. Establishing Ryan as the starting shortstop, staring on May 27, helped the team offensively and defensively.

Ryan was hitting .237 before that point. Then over the last 4+ months Ryan batted .301/.347/.410/.757. http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?n1=ryanbr01&t=b&year=2009&share=0.29#176-276-sum:batting_gamelogs

Let's hope in 2010 LaRussa starts him from opening day throughout most of the season.
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Post subject: Re: Is reaching the Phils' level next year realistic?
Posted: 08 Nov 2009 08:16 am

cagin64 wrote

The Cards had a lot of lost at bats this year. With Duncan(all season), Ankiel(after wall collision), and Greene being black holes for much of the season, alot of opportunity was lost. And I was a supporter for all those guys and believe they have a chance to be productive in the future. But last year is in the books and they cost alot of consistency. The Thurston bashers should let it go, he was bad at times and good at times. There are better options, but he was not, overall, as bad as some portray. A full year of Holliday and no power fade by Albert(even with a normal, for him, first half instead of the monster he put up last year), with a little more consistency, from other spots makes this a top notch line up. May not score to the Phils level, but Cards pitching is a good deal better. So, yes, we can reach Philly's level. Doesn't mean we will, but we can.


To some degree i agree,

Our CARDS are not terrible but they are a little
shy of playing very good ball all year.On sept 9
we had a 84 -57 record,then we were swept by ATL,
poor play,errors, and a loss of patience ensued.

THIS YEAR NO DUNC,ANK,THIRSTY,K GREENE
replacements freeze,t greene ,craig ,maybe jay too
will be better

WE must remember what WHITEY said in the 80 s,
"we weren t the best team , we just played the best"
This is very important,use the skills you have ,
don t play strugglers in 2 hole,cut errors and increase hustle,etc
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Post subject: Re: Is reaching the Phils' level next year realistic?
Posted: 08 Nov 2009 09:09 am
Exclamation The contents of this post were deleted.
As of: Nov 12, 2009 7:41:am
By: mikesmith
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Post subject: Re: Is reaching the Phils' level next year realistic?
Posted: 08 Nov 2009 09:13 am
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Post subject: Re: Is reaching the Phils' level next year realistic?
Posted: 08 Nov 2009 09:13 am
I don't see why we're even worried about the Phillies. The Cardinals will finish a distant second to the Cubs. They won't even have to worry about playing the Phillies in the playoffs.

Right, Ace? I think you can agree with that statement.
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Post subject: Re: Is reaching the Phils' level next year realistic?
Posted: 08 Nov 2009 09:38 am

tenor1trpt wrote

I don't see why we're even worried about the Phillies. The Cardinals will finish a distant second to the Cubs. They won't even have to worry about playing the Phillies in the playoffs.

Right, Ace? I think you can agree with that statement.

No. that was a bad post - bad particularly posting in Oct. I accept that it was a bad post - now if it gives you that much pleasure to regurgitate it, go ahead.

It's also a clever way to not respond to this present post - but don't worry - several INTELLIGENT people have already responded, with meaningful ideas.
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Post subject: Re: Is reaching the Phils' level next year realistic?
Posted: 08 Nov 2009 10:23 am

ace-king wrote

tenor1trpt wrote

I don't see why we're even worried about the Phillies. The Cardinals will finish a distant second to the Cubs. They won't even have to worry about playing the Phillies in the playoffs.

Right, Ace? I think you can agree with that statement.

No. that was a bad post - bad particularly posting in Oct. I accept that it was a bad post - now if it gives you that much pleasure to regurgitate it, go ahead.

It's also a clever way to not respond to this present post - but don't worry - several INTELLIGENT people have already responded, with meaningful ideas.


People lose credibility making posts like that in October.
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Kincaid
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Post subject: Re: Is reaching the Phils' level next year realistic?
Posted: 08 Nov 2009 11:01 am
Holliday's first game with the Cards was on July 24. From July 24 through the end of the season, we scored 302 runs in 64 games. That is a pace of 764 per 162 games.
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