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A fairly lengthy examination of why I question Murray
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blue bleeder 24-7
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Post subject: A fairly lengthy examination of why I question Murray
Posted: 09 Nov 2009 14:25 pm
(If you visit HFboards, you've already read this perhaps... but I like hearing myself talk, lol, so here it is)

So I did some number crunching. I'm gonna make a vlog on it, because I do that as a hobby, but since no one ever watches those because I'm lame, I figured I'd post some of these numbers here...

So I've seen the arguments from Murray defenders, and I decided to start digging deeper. Murray doesn't play to win, he plays to match the other team and go for a close game in which the team may get lucky and pull out a win. Because of this, he utilizes the wrong players at the wrong times. For example, one thing I absolutely can not stand is seeing McClement in OT. So I started with the premise that McClement is over-utilized.

McClement's production (TOI/pts) is 45.3 minutes this year. That's not a good production number. By comparison, Tkachuk is at 23.4 and EJ is at 36.1. Kariya is 35.5. McDonald is 30.5. You get the picture. Why does a guy with a horrible production number see time in OT?

So, I heard the argument that McClement is out there to win the draw. Fine, this is a legit argument. Sure, it's more philosophical than definitive proof, but it's at least a legit argument... So long as McClement is a beastly Face Off man.

Well....

of the 5 Blues that have seen over 75 faceoffs this year, McClement is ranked third in percent on the club with a 50.8%. That's not a face off specialist, that's a guy who can hold his own in the circle 50% of the time. The two centers over him are McDonald (60.6%) and Tkachuk (55.Cool.

And what do you know, those two players also have MUCH higher production numbers than McClement. So the question still remains: why is McClement out there in overtime?

So how far does this go... well, let's keep reviewing.

A team's first line center typically sees the most TOI. You can make the argument that that's not always the case given special teams, ie: penalty kill. Which is something I see Murray defended for all the time. "The TOI statistics are bull because the McClement-type shut down defenders see time on the penalty kill, so their numbers are skewed."

Well... that argument simply doesn't work anymore because I found out that on NHL.com they keep track of Even Strength TOI too.

So, you probably would say that your first line center should be seeing the most Even Strength TOI, right? If we can factor out the special teams, then that makes sense... your first line center sees the first highest amount of time, second sees the second, etc. etc.

Well, you'll never guess who leads the team in ES TOI. Jay McClement. Someone figure this out for me, because it's killing me inside. Why does our shut down specialist see more ice time than a scorer? It doesn't make sense. Why is he seeing more ice time than our supposed "scoring line centers". Is he our first line center now?

And this type of story keeps going on and on and on...

Average Even Strength TOI per Game for forwards:
Jay McClement: 13:49
Brad Boyes: 13:42
Andy McDonald: 13:40
Paul Kariya: 13:03
David Perron: 12:34
B.J. Crombeen: 12:06
T.J. Oshie: 11:39
Patrik Berglund: 10:49

So here we are AGAIN begging the question: why is McClement ahead of Boyes, McDonald, Kariya and Perron? And now a new question: why is Crombeen ahead of Oshie and Berglund?

You want to know why our offense isn't producing? That's exactly why. We're playing grinding type players with low production numbers over our scoring talent with not as low production numbers. That's why games are close, low scoring affairs; because these guys can hold down the fort for almost a game. And that's why we never get goals in clutch situations; because our scorers aren't out there.

I've been saying it for a long time: Murray is a good coach for a bad team (an offensive-talent starved group) because of his defensive approach. He keeps the lid on the game so that it doesn't get out of hand and gives a poor, struggling team a chance to come close to win every night.

However, it's exactly that approach that is killing this talented group of players. We don't need to play to be close anymore, we're ready to win games by letting our able to free-wheel offense take over.

Murray won't let that happen, and that's why Murray needs replaced. It's as simple as that. Murray's services can be used elsewhere in the league, but this team has simply outgrown him.

Sorry for the long post, and I hope I haven't been saying numbers/ concepts that have been regurgitated. Just felt like making a long post to sum up my feelings.
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BleedinBlue04
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Post subject: Re: A fairly lengthy examination of why I question Murray
Posted: 09 Nov 2009 14:34 pm
I don't think 30 or less seconds of ice time difference justifies that Murray isn't playing our scoreres. My opinion is that our scorers are getting plenty of chances they just aren't doing there job. McClement has had some offensive production and Murray is rewarding him. Maybe he wants others to see how you need to play to get ice time. He wants intensity every shift and a lot of the other guys up there, aren't doing that. If Kariya, Boyes, and everyone else were producing, we would see them a lot more, but they aren't.
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opusblues
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Post subject: Re: A fairly lengthy examination of why I question Murray
Posted: 09 Nov 2009 14:39 pm

BleedinBlue04 wrote

I don't think 30 or less seconds of ice time difference justifies that Murray isn't playing our scoreres. My opinion is that our scorers are getting plenty of chances they just aren't doing there job. McClement has had some offensive production and Murray is rewarding him. Maybe he wants others to see how you need to play to get ice time. He wants intensity every shift and a lot of the other guys up there, aren't doing that. If Kariya, Boyes, and everyone else were producing, we would see them a lot more, but they aren't.


I'm a big McClement fan, but his offensive production doesn't justify the extra ice time when we need to score goals. Yes, our forwards aren't finishing, but at this point of the season, more ice time and MORE chances that come with the extra time could be beneficial. Boyes and Kariya have been looking better each game, what's to say that in the extra 30 seconds-1 minute they both don't generate 2-3 more chances and maybe even finish on them? You're not going to get that kind of production out of McClement ever. He's a great stopper, but his offense is very limited. Were not letting in a ridiculous amount of goals...we're losing by 1-2 most nights, which means we should be willing to take the risk of putting MORE offense on the ice...especially when the problem the team is having right now is scoring. If we were scoring 5 goals per game but allowing 6, then yeah, put the stoppers out there for an extra shift...that's not the case.

OP: Great work on the stats...personally, I think it gives some valuable new insight to this teams current issues.
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BleedinBlue04
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Post subject: Re: A fairly lengthy examination of why I question Murray
Posted: 09 Nov 2009 14:43 pm

opusblues wrote

BleedinBlue04 wrote

I don't think 30 or less seconds of ice time difference justifies that Murray isn't playing our scoreres. My opinion is that our scorers are getting plenty of chances they just aren't doing there job. McClement has had some offensive production and Murray is rewarding him. Maybe he wants others to see how you need to play to get ice time. He wants intensity every shift and a lot of the other guys up there, aren't doing that. If Kariya, Boyes, and everyone else were producing, we would see them a lot more, but they aren't.


I'm a big McClement fan, but his offensive production doesn't justify the extra ice time when we need to score goals. Yes, our forwards aren't finishing, but at this point of the season, more ice time and MORE chances that come with the extra time could be beneficial. Boyes and Kariya have been looking better each game, what's to say that in the extra 30 seconds-1 minute they both don't generate 2-3 more chances and maybe even finish on them? You're not going to get that kind of production out of McClement ever. He's a great stopper, but his offense is very limited. Were not letting in a ridiculous amount of goals...we're losing by 1-2 most nights, which means we should be willing to take the risk of putting MORE offense on the ice...especially when the problem the team is having right now is scoring. If we were scoring 5 goals per game but allowing 6, then yeah, put the stoppers out there for an extra shift...that's not the case.

OP: Great work on the stats...personally, I think it gives some valuable new insight to this teams current issues.

The above numbers show even strength time. The extra time the "Scorers" get a night is on the powerplay. Time that McClement doesn't get. They are not scoring on the PP, or in general, and it is killing the team.
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Tim B
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Post subject: Re: A fairly lengthy examination of why I question Murray
Posted: 09 Nov 2009 14:45 pm

blue bleeder 24-7 wrote

So I've seen the arguments from Murray defenders


Why is it when someone doesn't agree with the criticism someone has about someone they are always a defender?
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blue bleeder 24-7
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Post subject: Re: A fairly lengthy examination of why I question Murray
Posted: 09 Nov 2009 14:50 pm

BleedinBlue04 wrote

opusblues wrote

BleedinBlue04 wrote

I don't think 30 or less seconds of ice time difference justifies that Murray isn't playing our scoreres. My opinion is that our scorers are getting plenty of chances they just aren't doing there job. McClement has had some offensive production and Murray is rewarding him. Maybe he wants others to see how you need to play to get ice time. He wants intensity every shift and a lot of the other guys up there, aren't doing that. If Kariya, Boyes, and everyone else were producing, we would see them a lot more, but they aren't.


I'm a big McClement fan, but his offensive production doesn't justify the extra ice time when we need to score goals. Yes, our forwards aren't finishing, but at this point of the season, more ice time and MORE chances that come with the extra time could be beneficial. Boyes and Kariya have been looking better each game, what's to say that in the extra 30 seconds-1 minute they both don't generate 2-3 more chances and maybe even finish on them? You're not going to get that kind of production out of McClement ever. He's a great stopper, but his offense is very limited. Were not letting in a ridiculous amount of goals...we're losing by 1-2 most nights, which means we should be willing to take the risk of putting MORE offense on the ice...especially when the problem the team is having right now is scoring. If we were scoring 5 goals per game but allowing 6, then yeah, put the stoppers out there for an extra shift...that's not the case.

OP: Great work on the stats...personally, I think it gives some valuable new insight to this teams current issues.

The above numbers show even strength time. The extra time the "Scorers" get a night is on the powerplay. Time that McClement doesn't get. They are not scoring on the PP, or in general, and it is killing the team.


The powerplay is floundering at a 14.3% success rate. But we've seen Winchester, Crombeen and even McClement on the powerplay this year in limited quantities.

Furthermore, McClement sees extra time on the Penalty Kill, which is why I found Even Strength TOI to be the key stat: it takes away both types of special teams and just gets you down to what is going on in a "normal" situation.

If you're looking at total TOI, then both McClement and McDonald are in the 18 minute range. However, McDonald's production value is higher, which is the whole argument.
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WilliamWestcliffe
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Post subject: Re: A fairly lengthy examination of why I question Murray
Posted: 09 Nov 2009 14:59 pm
Some very strong stats to support the prevalent frustration many have been experiencing lately.

To the original poster, if you have the time, I'd be interested in a comparison (along the same stat lines) to teams such as Detroit, Pittsburgh, San Jose, etc. I think it will be very telling on how skill, speed and creativity are used differently and effectively to TAKE THE GAME TO THE OTHER TEAM.

And you were right on - this team is forced to play a closed off, tight positional game with the idea of keeping the game as close as possible for as long as possible. The hope is to suffocate the other teams offense and then hope to get a good bounce on one of the 25 perimeter shots we take a game. If not, we'll do whatever we can to defend our way into OT and a charity point and hopefully steal a shoot out win.

Its a great strategy for an underskilled, overmatched team.

Its maddening now, because this team isn't overmatched or underskilled anymore. The coach has no faith in this teams offensive ability.
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bluesfan81
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Post subject: Re: A fairly lengthy examination of why I question Murray
Posted: 09 Nov 2009 14:59 pm

BleedinBlue04 wrote

opusblues wrote

BleedinBlue04 wrote

I don't think 30 or less seconds of ice time difference justifies that Murray isn't playing our scoreres. My opinion is that our scorers are getting plenty of chances they just aren't doing there job. McClement has had some offensive production and Murray is rewarding him. Maybe he wants others to see how you need to play to get ice time. He wants intensity every shift and a lot of the other guys up there, aren't doing that. If Kariya, Boyes, and everyone else were producing, we would see them a lot more, but they aren't.


I'm a big McClement fan, but his offensive production doesn't justify the extra ice time when we need to score goals. Yes, our forwards aren't finishing, but at this point of the season, more ice time and MORE chances that come with the extra time could be beneficial. Boyes and Kariya have been looking better each game, what's to say that in the extra 30 seconds-1 minute they both don't generate 2-3 more chances and maybe even finish on them? You're not going to get that kind of production out of McClement ever. He's a great stopper, but his offense is very limited. Were not letting in a ridiculous amount of goals...we're losing by 1-2 most nights, which means we should be willing to take the risk of putting MORE offense on the ice...especially when the problem the team is having right now is scoring. If we were scoring 5 goals per game but allowing 6, then yeah, put the stoppers out there for an extra shift...that's not the case.

OP: Great work on the stats...personally, I think it gives some valuable new insight to this teams current issues.

The above numbers show even strength time. The extra time the "Scorers" get a night is on the powerplay. Time that McClement doesn't get. They are not scoring on the PP, or in general, and it is killing the team.

You are shifting the argument. The OP is focusing on even strength play and this team is awful at scoring 5on5. The powerplay carried the team last year because they weren't able to score at even strength and now this year that the powerplay isn't scoring, the weakness in even strength scoring is so much more important. The Blues finished 23rd last season in 5on5 goals and are near the bottom again this season.
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luckybaer
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Post subject: Re: A fairly lengthy examination of why I question Murray
Posted: 09 Nov 2009 14:59 pm
McClement is supposedly out there against the opponent's top line. If the opponent's top line is out there a lot, then it stands to reason that McClement is out there due to Murray's line matching.

Maybe that's why he has a lot of even strength TOI?
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ParadeDownMarket
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Post subject: Re: A fairly lengthy examination of why I question Murray
Posted: 09 Nov 2009 15:01 pm
I think at this point we know what Murray's about. Every home game Tom Calhoun is going to announce that McClement and Crombeen are starting to counter the other teams top line. He's obsessive about line matching and micro manages his teams. He uses McClement the way other defensive minded coaches used their defensive centers like Lemaire and Robinson did with Madden in his prime when he played 20 minutes regularly. Mike Russo had a quote from Murray recently in the Star Tribune about how much he admired Lemaire and that defense trumps everything. Murray prefers a guy on the ice he trusts to be defensively responsible, even in OT.

Murray's answer to this scoring slump is not to give more ice to his younger, skilled players...his answer is to go into even more of a defensive shell and be even tighter defensively since goals are at such a premium. That's his version of adjusting. Which is fine, if your winning, but either way it's painfully dull hockey to watch.

And yet even with this defense first mindset, the Blues seem to need heroic goaltending every game just to garner a point because we are on our heels for much of the game, never have the puck, and are constantly chasing. It was like that for much of last year even when we went on our run.

Again, the point is we know who Murray is. We've seen it for almost 4 years now. It's not going to change.
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blue bleeder 24-7
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Post subject: Re: A fairly lengthy examination of why I question Murray
Posted: 09 Nov 2009 15:05 pm

WilliamWestcliffe wrote


To the original poster, if you have the time, I'd be interested in a comparison (along the same stat lines) to teams such as Detroit, Pittsburgh, San Jose, etc. I think it will be very telling on how skill, speed and creativity are used differently and effectively to TAKE THE GAME TO THE OTHER TEAM.


Maybe I'll do that and put it on my vlog on youtube. Get a sort of captive audience, eh? lol. Though I don't want to link to it here, I'm sure stltoday would have an exception to it... but I'm not hard to find on youtube if you're looking for Blues bloggers. My vlog should be up sometime late tonight (think 11pm-2am), and I'll likely have a friend of mine along to analyze as well.


Last edited by blue bleeder 24-7 on 09 Nov 2009 15:12 pm; edited 1 time in total
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thehammer
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Post subject: Re: A fairly lengthy examination of why I question Murray
Posted: 09 Nov 2009 15:09 pm

luckybaer wrote

McClement is supposedly out there against the opponent's top line. If the opponent's top line is out there a lot, then it stands to reason that McClement is out there due to Murray's line matching.
Maybe that's why he has a lot of even strength TOI?


makes sense when your the weaker team and playing a defense first/reactive style of play...A talented team, which the Blues are, need to make weaker opponents react to them.....McClement shouldn't be leading the team in toi when we have a team loaded with scorers


BTW the OP should be thanked for all the work,,,well researched
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