Ed Martin, the energetic Republican challenger in Missouri's 3rd Congressional District, held a fundraiser at Bartolino's on South Lindbergh last Wednesday. About 20 supporters showed up, which may or may not be indicative of anything.

This is supposed to be a most unusual year in politics.

How can it be more unusual than 2008? That's the year we elected a black president. I remember the election night crowd at the Chase Park Plaza. "Yes, we can! Yes, we did!" they chanted. They hugged one another and cried.

That seems like a long time ago. This year began with a Republican winning a special election in Massachusetts for the Kennedy seat in the U.S. Senate. Yes, the very seat that Ted Kennedy held for 47 years and had been held before him by his brother, John. That seat. Won by a Republican in liberal Massachusetts. So began 2010.

That victory by Tea Party hero Scott Brown was supposed to signal a sea change in American politics. Down with the establishment!

Perhaps so. We have seen several instances around the country in which establishment candidates have lost to outsiders.

That does not seem to be happening in Missouri. Look at the race for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by the retirement of Kit Bond. Both major parties seem prepared to nominate quintessential establishment candidates — Robin Carnahan for the Democrats and Roy Blunt for the Republicans. I can't even name anybody running against Carnahan, and on the Republican side, where the Tea Party crowd is supposed to have some muscle, the candidacy of state Sen. Chuck Purgason — a Tea Party guy if ever these was one — has been unable to gain much traction.

So will this really be an unusual year in Missouri?

Martin, who is expected to easily win the Republican nomination to challenge incumbent Congressman Russ Carnahan, thinks so. He told the small gathering at Bartolino's that there is a huge sense of unease in the country and in the district, and that people recognize that what we're doing now is not sustainable. He said that people understand that we have gotten away from the policies that made this country great.

As I sipped at my drink — a cash bar, by the way — I wondered about the mood of the electorate. Are most people really upset about health care reform? Do voters in Missouri really think that changing their congressman will help solve the illegal immigration problem?

I get plenty of e-mails about these things, but I tend to think I'm hearing from hard-core partisans. In terms of the 3rd Congressional District, that would be the 40 percent who always turned out to vote against Dick Gephardt.

Carnahan has generally fared better than Gephardt. Two years ago, he got 66 percent of the vote against Republican nominee Chris Sander, who, by the way, talked a lot about illegal immigration. Two years before that, Carnahan got 65 percent of the vote against Republican David Bertelsen.

Perhaps Martin is a much stronger candidate. I first met him in 1999 when I attended a seminar titled, "How to Legally Discipline and Fire Employees for Attitude." Martin also attended. He was working for the St. Louis Archdiocese. I was there to make fun of the seminar, and Martin was there to learn, so we were working at cross-purposes, but still, we got along. You don't have to agree politically to be friends. We don't and are.

Later, he became chief of staff for Gov. Matt Blunt. So he knows his way around the political block, but he is an outsider, as far as Washington is concerned. That last is supposed to be important this year.

I am not good at reading the mood of the electorate, so I'm not pretending to have this thing figured out. Carnahan is a strong candidate. He has the advantages of incumbency, and he comes from a family with a long history of winning elections in Missouri. You don't win elections in Missouri by being too liberal, and the Carnahans, when in doubt, always seem to tack toward the center.

Unless, of course, the health care reform bill that Congress passed is seen as too liberal.

By the way, is 20 a good turnout for a fundraiser on a Wednesday in July, or is it a small turnout?

Not that the numbers matter to Martin.

"He'll show up to talk to two voters," said Marsha Haefner, a Republican candidate for state representative in the 100th District. She said it admiringly. And why not? To challenge a strong incumbent requires a lot of energy. Martin has that. This will be a race worth watching, especially if this is really an unusual year.