A friend who has donated money to President Barack Obama recently gave me the re-election campaign's latest mailing.

It is a pamphlet called "Road Map to Victory," and it features four "paths" to victory. There is a West Path, a Midwest Path, a South Path and an Expansion Path.

According to the pamphlet, the strategy for victory begins with holding the 19 states that were carried by John Kerry in 2004. The West Path requires adding Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada. The South Path requires winning North Carolina and Virginia. The Expansion Path means winning Arizona. The Midwest path requires adding Ohio and Iowa.

What's missing?

Missouri.

What's more, if the Obama campaign decided on a Repeat 2008 Path — that is, win the states that went for Obama four years ago — Missouri would not be on that path, either.

So much for being a bellwether state.

Missouri is solidly and reliably in the red column these days.

But for those of us who enjoy political theater, the news is not entirely bad. Despite the fact that there won't be much of a presidential contest in Missouri this year, our red state status makes some of the races even more interesting.

Consider Sen. Claire McCaskill's re-election effort. On one hand, she probably wouldn't be unhappy if the president pretty much bypassed Missouri. He's unpopular in this red state. On the other hand, if a Democrat is going to win in a red state, the Democratic base had better be energized. In particular, the black vote has to turn out. Will it if the presidential campaign downplays Missouri?

Speaking of race, what happens if the Democrats have a Civil War? That could happen if Congressman Russ Carnahan, whose district has been erased, were to run against Congressman Lacy Clay. A divisive, racial fight would tear the party apart and leave somebody's supporters angry and upset.

A divided party is bad enough in a tossup state, but trying to win an election with a divided party when you're already in the minority? Those are long odds.

Who will be the Republican presidential nominee? I would guess McCaskill would be better off if Mitt Romney gets the nomination. He doesn't seem to excite the social conservatives. Maybe some of them would stay home in November. Plus, it would be more difficult to attack McCaskill's support for Obamacare if the architect of Romneycare is atop the ticket.

Then again, fear and anger are the great motivators these days, and maybe the fear and anger directed at Obama would overcome any lack of enthusiasm for Romney.

Can McCaskill get enough independent voters to overcome a Republican's inherent advantage?

That might depend on her opposition. The three main challengers on the Republican side are former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman, Congressman Todd Akin and businessman John Brunner.

By the way, here is another indication that Missouri is solidly red. Sarah Steelman's first television ad is aimed at the contraceptive mandate in Obama's health care plan. That almost seems odd. Most commentators claim that the mandate is popular with women.

After all, one of Steelman's advantages is that she is the lone woman in the race. That might seem trivial, but it counts.

In the Democratic primary for attorney general four years ago, Jeff Harris, Chris Koster and Margaret Donnelly were the candidates. Then Molly Korth Williams entered the race. Sort of, anyway. She raised no money and declined interviews. Because she had connections to Koster — a mutual friend, at least — some people speculated she had entered the race on his behalf to split the women's vote. In the end, Koster beat Donnelly by 610 votes. Williams got 23,048.

Koster went on to win the general election. He will be running for re-election in November. Last week, he announced that his office has filed a brief calling for the U.S. Supreme Court to reject the individual health insurance that is the cornerstone of Obama's health care reform law.

A Democratic attorney general opposing the president. As I said, this is a red state.

The one race I haven't mentioned is the gubernatorial contest. That is a tribute to Gov. Jay Nixon, who seems to be cruising toward re-election.

Governors like to announce new programs. Missouri is too broke to have any new programs. Governors like to talk about legislative victories. Nixon has to contend with a Legislature that is lined up against him.

A Democran? A Republicrat? Can he maintain the balancing act? It will be interesting to watch.