JEFFERSON CITY • Count Republican Congressmen Billy Long and Todd Akin among the happiest politicians in Missouri.
Why? Their congressional districts have the populations closest to the 748,615 mark that will be the size of each district after Missouri's electoral map is redrawn.
The U.S. Census Bureau revealed on Thursday population growth in counties surrounding St. Louis County, including in Akin's 2nd District, and in southwestern Missouri, where Long represents the 7th District.
But overall, Missouri has gained population at a slower rate than other states, which will result in the loss of one congressional seat. Over the next few months, lawmakers will be charged with redrawing the congressional districts so each area has an equal amount of residents.
"The numbers confirm that every district is going to change significantly," said state Rep. John Diehl, R-Town and Country. Diehl and Sen. Scott Rupp, R-Wentzville, will chair the two legislative committees charged with drawing the maps. While Diehl didn't want to speculate on what the initial numbers showed, he recognized that Akin's suburban St. Louis County district and Long's southwestern Missouri district were in some ways in a better spot than others.
"They certainly need the least amount of people added to them," Diehl said.
Whatever map the Legislature settles on must also be signed into law by Gov. Jay Nixon, a Democrat.
The process of redrawing congressional maps every 10 years is generally very partisan, as members of each party try to establish districts to their benefit. In that regard, political observers in Missouri say the St. Louis district of Rep. Russ Carnahan, a Democrat, appears to be the most vulnerable.
Carnahan's 3rd District currently represents 625,251 residents based on the new Census numbers, making it the second smallest district in the state after District 1, represented by Rep. William Lacy Clay, also a St. Louis Democrat. But because Clay represents a mostly African-American district, under federal law, his congressional district is better protected from change than any of the other districts in the state.
Clay's district must maintain a similar representation of black voters as its current configuration, so that means it's likely that his district will absorb some black voters from Carnahan's district.
"If you can't touch Clay and you can't touch (Kansas City Democrat Emanuel) Cleaver, who's left?" said George Connor, head of the political science department at Missouri State University. "If the Democrats have to choose, it's easiest to give up on Carnahan."
Carnahan couldn't immediately be reached for comment.
Connor said that based on an initial look at the Census numbers, the logical thing for lawmakers to do in the St. Louis region would be to rearrange Akin's district, and carve out much of Carnahan's district for Clay.
That being said, St. Louis leaders will fight for the region to continue to have three congressional districts from the area. The question is whether they can get the numbers to make their case. To draw three St. Louis area congressional districts would require the region to take in some rural areas currently in districts represented by other members of Congress.
For instance, based just on the city of St. Louis, and St. Louis, Jefferson and St. Charles counties, the area population would support 2.5 congressional districts. The figure rises to 2.9 congressional districts if a 10-county region surrounding St. Louis is included.
The numbers work because all of the counties surrounding St. Louis County grew, and the population base is still much larger than the other fast-growing part of the state, in southwestern Missouri.
St. Louis residents will have a chance to have their concerns heard at a forum at 2 p.m. next Friday at the St. Louis County Courthouse. The forum is one of several being held by Diehl and Rupp across the state to gather input before maps are drawn. Among the issues in congressional redistricting is whether certain areas have community ties that would make them a better fit in one district compared with another.
A key player in drawing the new congressional maps will be a software program called Maptitude 6, said Rupp. The program allows lawmakers to plug in block-by-block Census numbers based on certain assumptions, and it draws the districts to equalize population. The public hearings will help lawmakers decide what assumptions to use, Rupp said.
Between now and the end of the legislative session, lawmakers will also be in contact with the staffs of sitting members of Congress, who traditionally wield quite a bit of influence behind the scenes in drawing the maps.
