WASHINGTON • It is a sign of how bad things are for Democrats that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's best shot at keeping her job come November is to lose no more than 38 seats in Congress.

At 39, Republicans would take control of the chamber, and Pelosi would hand the gavel to Republican leader John Boehner and almost certainly face a coup attempt from within a demoralized new minority.

Control of the House is "on the bubble," said Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics. He now projects that Republicans will come up just short, but cautioned, "We're going to be revising that all the way to Nov. 2."

Political forecasting models can predict elections based on one factor: the economy. On that issue, the news keeps getting worse for Democrats. The economy is in a serious stall, with unemployment stuck at 9.6 percent and economic indicators turning south almost across the board.

With energy and zeal, Pelosi marshaled the most productive Congress in recent memory: health care reform, financial reform, a record-shattering fiscal stimulus, an unprecedented bank rescue and a host of other victories.

This was not the "do-nothing Congress" of lore. By the accounts of her conservative detractors, Pelosi did too much.

"She is the center of anything that's happened in the Congress — House and Senate — even with the compromises that some of us have had to swallow hard to accept," said Rep. Lynn Woolsey, D-Calif., a liberal. "The administration, as powerful as they are, would have gotten none of what we've done so far without her."

"She's spent plenty of political capital, and what good is a speakership if you can't pass legislation you want," said David Wasserman, House analyst for the independent Cook Political Report. Despite the $862 billion stimulus, however, he said, Democrats may not have focused closely enough on the economy.

"Most of that blame probably ought to be laid at the feet of the president," Wasserman said.

"As far as the political operation in the House, Pelosi's operation is doing everything it can to protect its members, but they're facing a very severe headwind."

In hindsight, Democrats might have passed an even bigger stimulus or targeted it more explicitly at job creation. Had it worked, they would be in better shape, but moderate Senate Democrats balked at anything larger. Stimulus now has such a bad name that Democrats are all but helpless to pass any more.

On top of a bad economy, Democrats are defending 48 seats in districts that Republican presidential nominee John McCain won two years ago.

"We picked up seats that we probably shouldn't have picked up" in 2008, said Rep. Mike Thompson, D-Calif. "They are going to be extremely hard seats to hold."

One of the few things working in Pelosi's favor is that a new Wall Street Journal/NBC poll shows Republicans in even worse standing than Democrats, at a 24 percent favorable rating to Democrats' 33 percent.

Analysts say Pelosi's one clear mistake was pushing a cap-and-trade climate change bill through the House that had no prospect of Senate passage, forcing swing-district Democrats to take a tough vote that Republicans are casting as a tax increase in oil and coal country.

Pelosi's trademark confidence still shows only hairline cracks. "We feel pretty confident," she said last week. "The fact is, the Bush administration took us into a deep hole, a deep recession, a financial institutions crisis and deep deficits. We're digging our way out."

Pelosi is furiously trying to retake the offensive, returning to her strategy of accusing Republicans of trying to privatize Social Security, a tactic she used with great effect to gain the majority in 2006.

The Social Security ploy is part of a larger effort by Democrats to paint a GOP takeover as a return to the policies of President George W. Bush.

Their effort includes a "Make It in America" week to promote manufacturing, a week devoted to "troops and veterans" and themes touting consumer protection regulations and concern for small business.

Democrats are also hoping for help from Tea Party-backed GOP nominees, whose sometimes radical views helped them win primaries but may not play as well in a general election.

Republicans, for their part, are using Pelosi's image as the embodiment of liberalism, second only to President Barack Obama. (The GOP's firenancypelosi.com, showing the speaker in flames, claims to have raised more than $1.5 million.)