How will camp vary from TLR to Mike Matheny?
The Cardinals can expect to receive a particularly intensive refresher course in fundamentals, with particular emphasis given to base running and pitchers' fielding. It did not escape the team's notice that the staff gave catcher Yadier Molina fewer chances against opposing base-stealers last year. Handling bunt plays seemed to pose a greater challenge as well. The return of 2009 Gold Glove winner Adam Wainwright to the rotation helps, but expect to see much attention paid to holding runners.
Once again the Cardinals enter camp projecting a new middle infield combination. Rafael Furcal should become the Cards' sixth different opening-day shortstop in as many seasons. And a second-base timeshare has yet to be determined. Matheny likes his personnel and anticipates a strong work ethic. However, with new faces projected at right field, first base, second base and shortstop, making sure the parts work well together will be essential. Among National League clubs only the Chicago Cubs committed more than the Cardinals' 116 errors last season — up from 99 in 2010, 96 in 2009 and 85 in 2008.
The Cards hardly are a base-stealing team but could become better first to third. Expect Matheny to integrate younger players with veterans in pitching and hitting groups. There is value, for example, in allowing pitching prospect Shelby Miller to have more exposure to a Wainwright or Chris Carpenter.
Will 'Wain'o be bueno?
One of camp's great debates will focus on how much can be expected from Wainwright — and how soon.
He has progressed extremely well from last elbow ligament replacement surgery last February and already is throwing live batting practice at Roger Dean Stadium. Wainwright says projections of 150-170 innings this season are overly conservative and hopes to force the issue with a strong camp.
Wainwright hopes to more liberally incorporate cut fastballs into his already dominant arsenal. The 2010 runner-up to NL Cy Young Award winner Roy Halladay will open camp on the same throwing program as the rest of the starting rotation, pitching coach Derek Lilliquist said. Wainwright is partly motivated by media skepticism about his ability to return as the same pitcher who led the league in innings and wins in 2009-10.
"As far as changing our expectations or our outlook, I think it's premature at this point to project how spring training could affect that," general manager John Mozeliak says. "He's feeling good. He's throwing well. Our job is to protect him throughout the process."
Mozeliak refers to any proposed innings limit as "a fluid situation."
How will second base look?
Drafted as a shortstop in 2005 and projected at the position as recently as last season, 28-year-old Tyler Greene enters camp with at least a piece of second base as his to lose. Greene, who produced massive numbers at Triple-A Memphis (.323/.422/.579) when not leading the parent club in steals last season, is out of options and must reverse a history of dull camps. Throwing yips cost Greene last spring and he played behind Ryan Theriot at shortstop and Skip Schumaker at second base.
Greene, arguably the most athletic player on the roster, broke camp with the Cardinals last year but was optioned to Memphis on June 18 following a seven-for-47 skid. He twice returned to the parent club only to receive three at-bats the rest of the season. A number of people both inside and outside the organization theorize that Greene did not fit easily within the pressurized environment that Tony La Russa constructed for young players. Mozeliak's willingness to project Greene as a defending World Series champion's primary second baseman tacitly supports that theory.
Daniel Descalso represents a lefthanded-hitting option while Schumaker is projected for a super-utility role that is likely to take him off the position he adopted in spring training 2009. With Albert Pujols no longer roaming wide at first base, range becomes an even greater concern at second. Range is considered an asset to Greene while Descalso and Schumaker are rated no more than major-league average in that aspect.
What can be expected of Allen Craig?
David Freese deservedly was named Most Valuable Player of the World Series but Allen Craig's ability to deliver three game-winning RBIs and a leaping Game 7 catch might have represented the tournament's most courageous feat. Craig played on a fractured right patella that required surgery in November in which a screw was inserted to the kneecap. Craig has not run or swung a bat since. The injury caused Craig's right thigh to atrophy and the three months since the surgery have been devoted primarily to strengthening the area. Craig insists he will be available on opening day, a claim the front office refuses to dismiss but is reluctant to publicly embrace.
Finding playing time for Craig will prove a greater challenge than when Mozeliak forecast 450-500 at-bats for him in October. Matt Holliday and Carlos Beltran project as everyday players on the outfield flanks and Mozeliak concedes Craig is not well-suited for center field (or second base for that matter).
"I think it's one of those things on the surface it seems complicated,'' Mozeliak says. "But the reality is that things tend to happen that open up games as you get going."
Craig, 27 and ineligible for arbitration until after the '13 season, could find time at first base against lefthanded pitching. Matheny could provide more liberal rest days to Beltran and left fielder Holliday as well.
Not counting last postseason, Craig has hit 20 home runs in only 427 major-league at-bats, a ratio that allows the Cardinals to forecast a role for him at a production position. This spring will determine how quickly Craig can begin making the transition from a part-time to regular presence.
What are the possibilities for bullpen intrigue?
The Cardinals can easily project six righthanders and two lefties for seven roles within a suddenly formidable bullpen. The seeming glut allowed the club to recently explore trade options for Kyle McClellan, who enters camp in a yet-to-be-determined capacity.
Marc Rzepczynski and specialist J.C. Romero constitute the bullpen's left side. Romero was released three times last year before signing with the Cardinals as a free agent last month. Romero's spot on the club is not assured, as righthander McClellan's success against lefties could make him a de facto second lefthander should Romero falter in camp. More likely, McClellan is dealt during camp or Mozeliak cycles those relievers with leftover options (Mitchell Boggs, Fernando Salas, Lance Lynn and Eduardo Sanchez) through Memphis. Jason Motte enters camp the presumptive closer after seizing the role last September.
Matheny has indicated a reluctance to take 13 pitchers into the season. Mozeliak similarly dismissed the idea recently. A possible additional complication comes if the Cardinals' interest revives in free-agent starter Roy Oswalt, a move that could force Jake Westbrook into long relief. Such an acquisition would all-but necessitate a trade.
Is there room for a prospect to break out?
Barring injury, it's difficult to envision a repeat of 2008, when McClellan skipped Triple-A to make the major-league club and career minor-leaguer Rico Washington squeezed his way on to the opening-day roster.
A rotation of Chris Carpenter, Wainwright, Jaime Garcia, Kyle Lohse and Jake Westbrook appears set unless Oswalt is signed. The bullpen has an overabundance of arms. The starting lineup includes Yadier Molina, Holliday, Jon Jay, Beltran, Freese, Furcal, Lance Berkman and presumably either Greene or Descalso at second base. Craig's availability for opening day could impact whether Rule 5 acquisition Erik Komatsu, who split last season between the Milwaukee Brewers' and Washington Nationals' Double-A affiliates, has a chance to stick. Adron Chambers would appear to be in competition with Komatsu for an extra outfield spot pending Craig's return.
Tony Cruz, who caught 99 innings and proved a capable pinch-hitter last season, appears a strong favorite to emerge as Molina's backup despite Bryan Anderson's presence and the signing of minor-league free agent Koyie Hill.
Signed to a two-year deal, Schumaker appears set as a super-utility player. Descalso, who received Gold Glove consideration at third base, and veteran Alex Cora could represent infield depth if Greene proves himself this spring.
What young players will be most scrutinized?
Expect to see organization player of the year Matt Adams receive significant time at first base, an arrangement unlikely to bother Berkman as he transitions from right field. With Berkman signed only through this season, Adams represents a potential successor after producing massive numbers at Double-A Springfield. Adams has hit at least .300 in his three professional seasons since being drafted out of Slippery Rock. He projects only at first base and the club is eager to discover whether a power lefthanded hitter who generated 32 home runs and 101 RBIs at Double-A Springfield will continue to produce at Memphis.
Descalso's success at third base last season hurt Matt Carpenter's standing as potential backup to Freese there. Shortstop Ryan Jackson, 23, might be the organization's best infield defender since Brendan Ryan. The Cora signing indicates a reluctance to expose Jackson at the highest level now, but his evolution as a hitter will be monitored closely. Second baseman Kolten Wong, 21, has quickly become a darling of numerous third-party evaluators. Though expected to begin the season at High-A Palm Beach, the first-round draft pick last June could create an argument for going to Springfield with a strong camp.
Top prospect and two-time organization pitcher of the year Shelby Miller, 21, is projected to open the season at Memphis and is a serious contender for next season's major-league rotation. A strong summer could allow Cardinals fans a glimpse of the 2009 draftee at Busch Stadium in September. Jordan Swagerty moved rapidly last summer from the Quad Cities rotation to the Springfield bullpen. His 3.87 strikeout-to-walk ratio stands out along with his versatility. Swagerty turns 22 in July. A shortage of lefthanded relief on the 40-man roster could allow nonroster invitees John Gast, Nick Greenwood and Kevin Siegrist greater exposure.
Will the Cardinals re-sign Yadier Molina?
Both parties have voiced a desire to get something done and talks are ongoing. The Cardinals negotiated a deal with Wainwright in spring training and attempted to do so with Albert Pujols before camp last February. Molina last week expressed a desire, but not a demand, that something be finalized by opening day. Parameters for a potential deal are somewhat vague but it's almost certain Molina would seek to join Joe Mauer, Mike Piazza and Jorge Posada as the only catchers in the game's history to sign for an average annual value of more than $10 million. Atlanta Braves catcher Brian McCann is due $20.5 million in the last two years of his six-year extension. Molina is due $7 million this season. Strong support in the clubhouse exists for the club to retain a player considered the game's best defensive catcher. Molina only enhanced his standing by leading the club in hitting last season while doubling his career high with 14 home runs. Length of contract might prove challenging as Molina turns 30 this season.
Is Lance Berkman still the Big Puma?
The Cardinals would not have remained in position to make last year's late-season push if Berkman had not confounded detractors by following two sub-par campaigns with his most productive year since 2008. Berkman's .959 OPS exceeded his career figure (.954) while he amassed his first 30-homer season since 2007 while playing in a pitcher's park at a position, right field, that he'd last worked regularly in 2004. Berkman turned 36 last week. His leg issues with the Houston Astros are well-chronicled and he experienced shoulder stiffness early and late last season. Berkman raised his overall average from .282 to .301 last September but experienced a late power fade that left him with one home run and six extra-base hits in his last 28 regular-season games. Berkman now inherits a position that has provided the Cardinals 331 home runs and 948 RBIs from its regular tenant the last eight seasons. Though no one expects him to match Albert Pujols' average production at the position, Berkman represents a critical component of an offense that needs to compensate with greater balance.
How will the club handle Chris Carpenter?
The ready answer is to give Carpenter the ball on opening day in Miami. However, enough concerns exist about Carpenter's massive innings load last season (270-plus) that the Cardinals have considered lessening his early load. Carpenter has exhibited no ill effects from 2011, but the club is acutely aware of a complicated medical history that includes elbow and nerve issues that arose after he threw more than 516 innings in 2005-06. (Carpenter has thrown 508 innings the past two seasons.) The 2005 NL Cy Young Award winner asks for no quarter in his preparation. As he approaches his 37th birthday and the first installment of a two-year, $21 million extension, the club might suggest that less is more this spring.
Is this a brittle club?
The Cardinals absorbed the loss of Wainwright and utility player Nick Punto almost immediately after opening camp last season. Wainwright had elbow issues dating to high school and the Minnesota Twins medical staff had recommended Punto undergo surgery to repair a sports hernia in 2010. The Cardinals enter this month's camp a talented bunch followed by medical baggage. Craig and Freese have yet to appear in 100 games in a major-league season largely because of lower body injuries. Furcal, 34, has averaged 92 games the last two seasons. Beltran played in 145 games total in 2009-10 while dealing with knee issues that required surgery and that now make him uncomfortable in center field. Berkman's production soared last season, in part, because he played more than 136 games for the first time since 2008. The club has shut down or spread out Garcia's appearances in September the past two years while La Russa and pitching coach Dave Duncan thought Lohse wore down after missing parts of two seasons because of a forearm condition that needed a novel procedure to treat. The sum represents a team that will be watched closely and that might be given pre-emptive rest.
