TOWER GROVE -- If there was any doubt that he was going to win either of the Cy Young awards he scored in Minnesota with the Twins, New York Mets lefty Johan Santana cinched them with what can only be called a tremendous finishing kick.
Santana is the second-half lion.
The Mets' lefty is 61-19 in his career after the All-Star break, and his ERA in the second half of a season is 2.73, about a half run better than in the first half of the season. In 2006, when Santana won the second of his Cy Youngs, the lefty went 10-1 in the season's second half. This past week at the All-Star Game, Minnesota catcher Joe Mauer was asked what he thought of Santana's annual surge.
"I always tried to put a finger on that," Mauer said. "When he was with us, the second half was lights out. I don't know if it's him getting stronger as he goes on. He was always solid for us down the stretch."
Earlier this week, we took a look at Matt Holliday's second halves and attempted to temper any concern about his swing coming out of the Home Run Derby. (You can see that entry here.) Holliday qualifies as a lion when you consider his slugging percentage spikes from .519 to .578 and he has 82 homers in 549 first-half games and 86 homers in 392 second-half games. Plus, he's yet to have his second game of this second half, so that total is going to grow.
Holliday's OPS offers another clue. In the first-half his OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage) is .899, and in the second half is .973. That offers us a way to look at the rest of the lineup in terms of second-half lions and second-half lambs, and that's where we beging today's 10@10 (though in this new format, it may need a new name ... eh?):
1. Over at Baseball-Reference.com, the amazing catalog of info there not only offers career splits for every player so that we can measure the difference between first- and second-half numbers. The site also gives us a stat called tOPS+, and it is particularly valuable when comparing halves of seasons. tOPS+ starts with a baseline of 100 and then measures a players OPS from there. Below average drops the tOPS+ to less than 100, and above the average means the tOPS+ integer goes more than 100. All players' career tOPS+ for the sake of the comparisons below is 100, and their first- and second-half tOPS+ go from there.
Keep two things in mind when you scan these first-half numbers vs. second-half numbers for the Cardinals lineup: 1) David Freese isn't listed because he really hasn't had a second half yet. 2) Colby Rasmus' total should be taken with a heaping teaspoon of salt for the similar reason that he hasn't had a normal second-half yet. (A similar case, in reverse, could be made for Brendan Ryan to temper the spike he experiences in these stats as well.) Here's the lineups of mostly second-half lions:
PLAYER ... career OPS/2nd half OPS ... tOPS+ 1st/2nd ... +/-
C Molina ... .682/.704 ... 96/107 ... +11
1B Pujols ... 1.051/1.067 ... 98/103 ... +5
2B Schumaker ... .736/.770 ... 95/110 ... +15
3B Lopez ... .738/.774 ... 93/110 ...+17
SS Ryan ... .669/.748 ... 85/124 ... +39
LF Holliday ... .930/.973 ... 94/109 ... +15
CF Rasmus ... .788/.601 ... 118/55 ... -63*
RF Ludwick ... .832/.823 ... 101/99 ... -2
* Again, don't put much stock in this at all.
2. The trend locally is to surge in the second half, apparently. But is that true overall? The weather gets warmer, the offense gets hotter -- makes sense that similar trends would be true throughout baseball. As a control group, then, here are four players from the NL Central-leading Cincinnati Reds' lineup. Same categories.
Scott Rolen ... .870/.874 ... 99/100 ... +1
Joey Votto ... .943/.946 ... 100/100 ... even
Jay Bruce ... .774/.818 ... 96/110 ... +14
Brandon Phillips ... .751/.725 ... 104/93 ... -11
3. What about pitchers? You can use the reverse o the tOPS+ number to help look at how pitchers do. For example, Santana, mentioned above, has a first-half tOPS+ of 107. His second-half tOPS+ number is 91. Put another away, he reduces the opposing batters ability to hit above average against him by 18, and plunges it to 91. The same things that limit the numbers with Freese and Rasmus are in play with Jaime Garcia and several of the Cardinals' relievers, so I took a look at five starters with significant experience and, of course, closer Ryan Franklin.
PITCHER ... career ERA/2nd half ERA ... tOPS+ ... +/-
Carpenter ... 3.82/3.76 ... 104/95 ... -9
Wainwright ... 2.99/.2.75 ... 101/98 ... -3
Suppan ... 4.72/4.67 ... 100/100 ... even
Penny ... 4.11/4.41 ... 98/104 ... +6
Lohse ... 4.71/.4.67 ... 99/101 ... +2
Franklin ... 4.06/4.46 ... 95/106 ... +11
4. With the Los Angeles Dodgers in town it's time to mention one of the more uncanny records out there. The race for 1,000 is on. Last night's win for the Cardinals was the 995th for the Cardinals in their history against the Dodgers. LA/Brooklyn leads the overall record in the series, remarkably, 998-995. All this time and only three games separate the two members of NL royalty. (There have always been 16 ties.) The Cardinals must sweep this series to retie the overall series and give them a chance to beat LA to 1,000.
The Cardinals are 12-3 all-time at Busch Stadium III vs. LA.
5. The Dodgers will finish this series with three righthanders scheduled to make starts, and that opens up the playing time for rookie Jon Jay. GM John Mozeliak announced yesterday that Ryan Ludwick could be sidelined for another nine days, and that means at-bats for Jay, who has excelled when given the shot this season. Jay extened his hitting streak to 12 games Thursday night. That's the longest hitting streak by a Cardinal this season, and it is the longest active streak in the National League -- though it was split over two stints in the majors. During the streak, Jay is hitting .500 (19-for-38). He's got four games to go, though, before he matches his best hitting streak of the season. He had a 16-game hitting streak earlier this season in Class AAA.
6. Last night presented an interesting strategy for the Cardinals to use in the absence of Ludwick. Could a rookie platoon carry right field for a week or so? Neither Jay or rookie Allen Craig have the history in the majors to lean much on their splits. But here are their totals from the minors, where Jay's OPS in his career is .683 vs. lefties and .830 vs. righthanded pitchers:
CRAIG
vs. LHP, 2010 ... .277 BA, .362 SLG
vs. RHP, 2010 ... .327 BA, .615 SLG
vs. LHP, career ... .303 BA, .542 SLG
vs. RHP, career ... .305 BA, .491 SLG
JAY
vs. LHP, 2010 ... .180 BA, .230 SLG
vs. RHP, 2010 ... .404 BA, .644 SLG
vs. LHP, career ... .259 BA, .349 SLG
vs. RHP, career ... .311 BA, .457 SLG
7. Looks like Walt Jocketty is into collecting former Cardinals, too. Russ Springer agreed to a deal with the Cincinnati Reds and he'll join the major-league bullpen if 10 days or so with the Class AAA Louisville, Ky., team goes well. Springer threw for a handful of teams near his Louisiana home, and here is the mighty Alexandria Town Talk's take on their local boy going back to the majors. Springer told the paper at the top of the cajun triangle:
"Me being a big Cincinnati fan growing up, even though the other offer (of the final two) was better, all of a sudden I went from being not really excited to looking at it as a kid again when I was pulling for them during the Johnny Bench, Pete Rose, George Foster days.
"And they're in first place," he added. "That's big."
...
"They've got a young bullpen," Springer said of the Reds, "and they said they needed a guy who has been there before to help in key situations. During my career, I've been in most of them."
8. FARMNIK REPORT: Top prospect Shelby Miller had his first start since appearing in the Futures Game. He got deeper into the game, and his ERA paid the price for that. Miller allowed five runs on 10 hits in five innings. Four of those runs came in the fourth inning of the Quad Cities' loss. Miller struck out nine and allowd one homer. He walked one. His K/BB ratio is now 81:19. ... Memphis lost, 4-1, to the New Orleans Zephyrs (nee Denver). Mark Hamilton scored the only run for the Triple-A Redbirds, and he did so on a wild pitch. ... Former Cardinal, Hector Luna was 2-for-3 with an RBI for the Marlins' Triple-A team. ... Lance Lynn allowed two runs (one earned) on four hits through six innings. He struck out five. ... Nick Longmire snapped a 1-for-17 skid as he boosted Rookie-A Batavia to 16-2 victory. Longmire went 2-for-4 with a homer and three RBIs. ... Colin Walsh, starting at second and batting second, did the same, going 2-for-4 with a homer and three RBIs. ... Five Batavia Muckdogs had two or three RBIs each. ... Shortstop Yunier Castillo had two RBIs, and he's batting .229 this season for Batavia. Joe Bergman went 2-for-5 with three RBIs and three strikeouts. ... All of that offense, though, shouldn't mask the pitching from starter Justin Edwards. The lefty was drafted last summer in the 28th round out of Kenesaw State, and on Thursday he struck out eight and allowed two runs (both earned) on six hits through seven innings. He did not walk a batter. This season he's 2-1 with a 2.93 ERA in six starts for Batavia.
9. Hit the Links: Took a look at the pressure of the nine-digit club through the eyes of several players who have been there before Holliday. You can see that article here at StlToday.com, and you can also check out Viva el Birdos take on Holliday's contract from just before the All-Star break at the most-prominent fan blog in Cardinals eNation. ... In today's Los Angeles Times, Dylan Hernandez describes how Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers wilted in the heat last night at Busch Stadium. ... Some baseball cartoons from the great Drew Litton, including, if you scroll down, one that captures the Colorado Rockies' two rallies against the Cardinals last week. ... And, in case you missed, Cincinnati Reds first baseman (and first-half MVP?) Joey Votto gave a blunt answer about why he didn't congratluate Chicago Cubs outfielder Marlon Byrd after his great at-bat and heads-up play helped win the All-Star Game for the NL. Said Votto at the All-Star break, per ESPN Chicago:
"I don't like the Cubs," said Votto, the first baseman for the NL Central-leading Cincinnati Reds. "And I'm not going to pat anybody with a Cubs uniform on the back."
Asked why he has such disdain for the Cubs, Votto said: "We are Cincinnati Reds. We're taught to hate everything in the Central Division. That's just how it is."
10. Perhaps last night's assertive win for the Cardinals shouldn't have been a surprise. The Cardinals are 10-1 in home series immediately after the All-Star break. The Cardinals are 35-14 in games after the break with Tony La Russa as their manager, and they are 16-9 at home in that stretch. Only twice in the "La Russa Era", per the team's media relations department, have the Cardinals lost the series immediately after the All-Star break, and not once at home since 2001.
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