QUESTION: Which do you think that the Cardinals have a better chance of doing: Catching the Reds in the division (trailing by 8) or the Phillies in the wild-card race (trailing by 5.5)?
JOE STRAUSS
Don’t you mean catching the Phillies AND the Giants in the wild card race? The Cardinals may have one last opportunity to crash the postseason party. They are currently 5 1/2 games behind a Phillies team that has reached consecutive World Series and emerged from a summer of crushing injuries. It’s highly questionable the Cardinals can run down such a team. The wild card may go through Atlanta. The Braves have won a remarkable number of late-inning decisions. It’s debatable whether they can hold off the Phillies. The Cardinals’ four-game series in Atlanta next weekend likely offers their last chance to jumble the wild-card race.
Regardless of this week’s outcome, it’s difficult envisioning how the Cardinals can catch the Reds after the Reds have been 12 1/2 games the better team the last four months. The Braves are on a magical mystery tour. The Cardinals swept them four games earlier this season at Busch. The Braves also have a showdown with the Phillies remaining. It appears more likely that the Braves suddenly could become vulnerable.
That said, the Cardinals haven’t won back-to-back road series since April and are in a 4-13 spiral. With a depleted lineup, the Cardinals are scaring no one these days.
RICK HUMMEL
I’m saying the Philllies are going to win the Eastern Division, even though they are two games behind the Braves before Friday’s games. This means the Braves are the wild-card leaders the Cardinals ultimately will have to catch.
Since the Cardinals trail both the Braves and Reds by roughly eight games, I’m saying the better target is Atlanta because the Cardinals have four games remaining with the Braves, albeit in Atlanta, and only three with Cincinnati. They have none with the Phillies and it’s very tough to make up ground on a team when you don’t play them.
That logic, of course, has been blown up recently when the Reds made up nine games on the Cardinals in less than three weeks’ time without playing them once.
DERRICK GOOLD
Um, can I take neither? The math in both cases is just so daunting. If the Reds go 12-17 from here, they still win 90 games and the Cardinals have to go 21-11 just to catch them at 90. On the Wild Card side, the Cardinals are not just chasing Philadelphia, they are also trailing San Francisco. The more teams involved in the hunt the more tricky the hunt gets. There are too many variables, too many moving parts. The more direct route for the Cardinals to the postseason is to run down Cincy, to have the Reds falter and to win the division. That said, their best chance, today, is going to be the Wild Card. Sure there are more teams involved – Colorado and others are on the fringe, too – but Philadelphia’s 5 1/2-game lead in the Wild Card is not only less than Cincinnati’s lead in the division, it also appears less sturdy. That is, relatively. At this point, slim is better than dubious.
JEFF GORDON
Neither . . . but for the sake of this exercise, I’ll say wild card. The Reds are poised to lock up the National League Central this weekend. The team is steamrolling the league – and now the arrival of Aroldis Chapman adds more fuel. There is no stopping that team now. I don’t believe Philly or Atlanta will collapse this season, so the Cards will have to play incredible baseball just to remain mathemathically alive.
LARRY BOROWSKY (Founder of Viva El Birdos and editor of “Maple Street Press Cardinals Annual”)
Am I allowed to say “neither?” Even if they sweep Cincinnati this weekend (oh, happy thought) to pull within 5 games, the Reds play most of their remaining games against the sort of sub-.500 teams (Bucs, D-Backs, Brewers, Houston) they have feasted on all season. I don’t think St. Louis can catch them.
To win the wild card, the Cards will have to pass not one team but two: both the Phillies (4 games ahead of St. Louis in the loss column as of this morning) and the Giants (2 games ahead). The Giants have a difficult schedule the rest of the way; catching them is the least of the Cards’ worries. Philadelphia is now healthy and playing well (20-10 since August 1) and would be difficult to overtake even under the best of circumstances. And these are not the best of circumstances.
