TOWER GROVE -- A visit to the major-league ballpark closest to his home brought more than the comfort of fried chicken from a favorite restaurant, as Colby Rasmus explained post-game last night on Fox Sports Midwest. It brought a dynamic end to a difficult stretch for the St. Louis Cardinals second-year center fielder.
It also offered a jolting reminder of the reason he's so important and why there isn't any reason for him to be out of the lineup.
Rasmus tied a career-high with four hits, and he had the second multi-homer game of his career in the Cardinals' resurgent 11-4 victory against the Atlanta Braves at Turner Field. He is the first Cardinal to have four hits and at least two homers in a game against the Braves since George Hendrick did in 1978. (1)
The young outfielder reached base all five times he came to the plate Thursday, scored three runs and drove in four. It was a career day. It happened a short drive from his hometown in Alabama. It punctuated a week that has included news of his trade request, dissection of his relationship with manager Tony La Russa and discussion of his place within the organization and its future. It also should mean that Rasmus is back in the lineup, batting fifth today.
No matter the opposing pitcher. Even if he's lefthanded.
La Russa said a lot by saying a little to Joe Strauss and other reporters after last night's game when asked if the jubilant rally could spark the team: "We've got a lefthander (Mike Minor) going against us tomorrow. We haven't seen him before. We've got everything going against us."
To recap why Minor presents such a recipe for trouble (2):
-- He's lefthanded. The Cardinals are 2-9 in their previous 11 games against lefty starters.
-- He's a rookie. With little video to go on, the Cardinals are handcuffed sometimes because they rely heavily on digital scouting.
-- He's got a 5.33 ERA. Sure Minor, a 2009 first-round pick, is 3-0 in five major-league starts this season. But that ERA reeks of a potential Bud Norris, Daniel McCutchen, Chris Narveson, etc., doesn't it?
Setting up the 10@10 a little different these days, and this is no exception. Instead of the straight list at the top here, I'll go point by point the case for Colby Rasmus to start against Minor tonight, and even for him to bat No. 5. Seems like an obvious, easy, layup argument to make in the wake of his two-homer bonanza Thursday. But wait.
It's even more obvious than that.
Some recent history (3): The Cardinals' nosedive out of contention has been caused by their record against losing teams -- it is now a losing record (37-39) against losing teams, mind you -- and also their record against lefties with those losing teams. Since facing Milwaukee and Randy Wolf on August 18 at Busch Stadium, the Cardinals have had 11 games against lefty starters. They've lost nine of them, including Wednesday's game at Miller Park against Milwaukee's Chris Capuano.
In those 11 games, the Cardinals have 52 hits and 48 strikeouts in 76 1/3 innings. The lefties are 8-2 with Pittsburgh Pirates starter Paul Maholm being the only one to get a no decision. Here are the cold, hard numbers from those those 11 lefties vs. the Cardinals:
1.77 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 5.66 K/9
Clearly it would be difficult for the Cardinals to do worse, so what's the harm in throwing out the lineup that is the Cardinals' best? And that, currently, has Rasmus hitting fifth.
Go deeper, however, for it become clearer. (4) In the previous 11 games against lefties, all of whom are apparently Steve Carlton carbon copies, the Cardinals are batting less than .165 as a team vs. those lefties. I expanded the pool a bit. I took the 11 Koufaxes* that the Cardinals have faced in the past 3 1/2 weeks and ran the Cardinals' numbers for the entire season against them.
* The Lefty 11: Wolf, Madison Bumgarner, Maholm, Scott Olsen, John Lannan, J.A. Happ, Wandy Rodriguez, Travis Wood, Chris Narveson, Capuano, Barry Zito.
Sure those total numbers include the .295 average against Maholm, but it also has that .184 average against Wolf this season. Against those 11 lefties, the Cardinals have hit .227 in 533 at-bats this season and slugged .351. They have 43 walks and 92 strikeouts.
Rasmus (5), meanwhile, has hit .263, slugged .411 and reached base at a .327 clip against lefties this season. He has an OPS in 106 plate appearances against lefties of .737. If he's not good enough with those numbers to start against lefties, then how it's possible that the Cardinals have done so poorly against lefties. Especially recently.
Overall this season, the Cardinals are batting .253 vs. lefties, slugging .381 vs. lefties and reaching base at a .320 OBP. All three would be higher if Rasmus remains the same against lefties*. But that is way oversimplifying, because the possibility exists that Rasmus has done well, relatively, against lefties because he's been strategically deployed against specific lefties. Throwing him out against all lefties risks exposure and a drop in those numbers. That's the next step in this case for Colby starting anyway.
* Think the Cardinals miss David Freese because of the whole Ryan Ludwick trade and "Favorite Storyline" thing. Try this: In 70 at-bats vs. LHP this season, Freese hit .357/.416/.457. That is good for an OPS of .873.
Let's consider the alternatives to Rasmus.
The Cardinals are carrying a few bats who provide options when it comes to facing a lefthanded starter. Most likely, the Cardinals could start Jon Jay in center, and Nick Stavinoha or Randy Winn. Here is what that threesome has done vs. lefties this season (slash lines are, as always, BA/OBP/SLG):
Winn ... .152/.188/.174 ... .361 OPS
Stavinoha ... .260/.302/.300 ... .602 OPS*
Jay ... .321/.409/.375 ... .784 OPS
* To be fair, Stavinoha does have 25 at-bats vs. lefties in Triple-A, and he hit .480/.464/.560 with 1.024 OPS in those.
Seems obvious, right? Rasmus, in limited exposure, is a better alternative than his alternatives against lefties. But remember, it's even more obvious than that. A couple weeks ago, MLB.com beat writer Matthew Leach wrote in his blog, OYNAG, an interesting factoid about the Cardinals and their below-.700 roster (see entry here). Leach made the point that the Cardinals had on Aug. 30 five players on the roster with at least 350 plate appearances and an OPS of less than .700. Other than the Cardinals, only the San Diego Padres had more than two sub-.700 regulars. That is a silver bullet stat to reveal what has been the "Favorite Storyline" of the season -- a lineup with wafer-thin depth and an inability to string hits ... no, no, baserunners ... together.
The Cardinals will likely go into tonight's game against rookie lefty Minor with the following three players with plus-.700 OPS:
Jon Jay, RF ... .840 OPS
Albert Pujols, 1B ... .999 OPS
Matt Holliday, LF ... .904 OPS
Those three players will be surrounded by four of these five potential starters, and their sub-.700 OPS:
Skip Schumaker, 2B ... .691 OPS
Felip Lopez, 2B ... .661 OPS
Yadier Molina, C ... .652 OPS
Brendan Ryan, SS* ... .567 OPS
Pedro Feliz, 3B ... .547 OPS
* It is Chris Carpenter on the mound for the Cardinals, after all.
The call is now who will be that eighth position player, that final position player to complete the roster. The call is easy. Even against lefties, Rasmus would be a fourth .700+ OPS player for the lineup. That .737 OPS vs. lefties is not only the split of the remaining options, it also better than the overall OPS of seven of the teammates listed/mentioned above.
The Cardinals don't know much about Minor, but they should know enough about Rasmus. The center fielder has 226 fewer plate appearances against lefties this season than righties. As the Cardinals amble toward the finish line, their playoff aspirations riding on the struggles of others, their best lineup includes Rasmus, no matter the opposing pitcher and what hand he decides to throw with that night. If the Cardinals want to learn something about 2011 in the next few weeks, then see what Rasmus can do against lefties. It may just turnaround 2010, too.
The poll throws Rasmus into a pile of young outfielders and asks the question who would you rather have. When checking out the list you'll find a Triple Crown contender -- 24-year-old Colorado Rockies outfielder Carlos Gonzalez. Keep his Coors Field splits in mind. UPDATE: OK, now it's up. Lost it in cyberspace.
***
6. Adam Wainwright improved to 6-0 against the Atlanta Braves, his boyhood team, his first team and his former team. According the Elias Sports Bureau, Wainwright is the first pitcher to start his career against Atlanta 6-0 since Cincinnati's Ron Robinson, whose career began in 1984.
7. This will be the Cardinals last regular-season visit to Atlanta and manager La Russa's last regular-season chess matches against Bobby Cox, who will retire at season'send. With his Magical Mystical Statistical Machine, colleague Bernie Miklasz drummed up the following Cox vs. nuggets (updated to reflect last night's game):
Cox vs. Cardinals, overall ... 123-102
Cox vs. La Russa, NL ... 64-46
Cox vs. La Russa, AL ... 28-20
Cox vs. La Russa, postseason ... 4-6
Mining that information for a more tangible representation of how Cox has done against the Cardinals or how he's done opposite La Russa and you'll find the equivalent of two seasons. Cox has essentially managed entire seasons against La Russa if you include their work in the American and National leagues. (Cox was the skipper for the Toronto Blue Jays while La Russa was with the Chicago White Sox.) In that "season", Cox is 96-72 vs. La Russa for a .571 winning percentage.
The other "season" is Cox against the Cardinals since he returned to the NL in 1990. Cox is 104-78 in that span vs. the Cardinals. Good for a .571 winning percentage.
***
8. FARMNIK REPORT: Coming shortly in its own entry, as we'll continue to do throughout the minor-league postseason. You can find it here.
9. HIT THE LINKS: Kevin Goldstein, the prospect guru at Baseball Prospectus, invited to join his highly-rated, highly-regarded podcast to talk about ColbyGate and the state of the Cardinals' farm system. Being a podcast there was no break to get to, no promotion to hit, just 20-plus minutes of baseball chatter. (He allowed me to add a note of caution as the language in other segments -- no, not my Eagle Scout turn -- can be PG-13.) ... John Fay writes in this morning's Cincinnati Enquirer about a road trip that the Cardinals can certainly empathize with: The Cincinnati Reds were swept by the Rockies and their journey went from "bad to worse to embarrassing." ... Troy Renck, in The Denver Post, explains the unlikely play that led to the Reds' loss and the Colorado Rockies' seventh consecutive victory. ... Former Cardinal Placido Polanco is playing third base for the Philadelphia Phillies with a broken elbow, and he plans to keep playing, per this report from Philly. ... Fungoes runs the numbers on the "possibility" that the Cardinals can still win the National League Central. ...
Next Thursday, the Cardinals will host a Social Media Night at the ballpark. The Cardinals, who changed their Twitter handle to @CardsInsider on Thursday, are becoming more and more aggressive in the "social media realm". Sort of like newspapers (ahem). More about the evening can be found at the club's official site. The purpose of the evening -- which, in part, is to sell tickets, of course -- has been viewed in some corners as a summit on covering baseball/enjoying baseball in this new (online) world order. (See Matt Sebek's take here.) That wasn't my understanding. I'll be on the panel, and I'll give my perception/opinion about covering baseball in a Twitter world -- if asked. My bet though is that in the end it's mostly going to be a Q & A between fans, media and, yes, the Cardinals' front office about the 2010 season and seasons ahead. ...
Hey, Nate Roberston is on the move again. The Philadelphia Phillies designated him for assignment, which means the Cardinals could get him back if they wanted. He does throw lefthanded. Better to get him before an opponent does, right?
10. This past week my son's teacher has had the kids color pictures of Fredbird in an attempt to help turn the Cardinals' luck. My son has been fascinated by Fredbird for the last year or so, and he has tons of questions. Most of them I can answer. (Yes, he lives at Busch Stadium. Yes, there is a man inside the costume. No, he doesn't talk.) But here's one I need help on, straight from boy wonder's mouth, unabridged: "If he doesn't talk, why is his mouth open like this (opens mouth wide) all the time like maybe he's yawning or screaming?"
Got an answer for that?
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