QUESTION: Most prognosticators thought the Cardinals would clinch the NL Central this year fairly easily. If you had to point to one, singular reason as to why this team has underachieved up to this point, what would it be?

 

JOE STRAUSS

Lacking experience/consistency within the lineup. It is tough to project a team that offers Randy Winn, Allen Craig, Yadier Molina, Pedro Feliz and Jon Jay a month’s worth of exposure at the No. 5 slot as a formidable offensive club. The team has addressed its offensive needs with two released players and a third exiled among a fourth-place roster.

This exposes two other truths: player development was incapable of supporting a contender either through immediate help or leverage for a trade. One would think a critical internal analysis would be offered rather than waiting for validation from “third-party” publications.” The parent club and its system are loaded with complimentary players, placing a premium on health and starting pitching. The Cardinals faltered in August when deprived of health. They are poised to collapse if the rotation flattens.

RICK HUMMEL

Neither the Cardinals’ offense, nor their defense, has been as we envisioned. The Cardinals’ clutch hitting has not been nearly as good as their overall team batting average would suggest.

And, too often, especially in the last month to six weeks, there has been very little firepower in the lineup after Matt Holliday hits.

They’ve given up too many runs in the field and, for that matter, on the bases.

I know that’s not a singular reason. But to explain the Cardinals’ failure to take charge of the worst division in the league is not an easy question to answer.

JEFF GORDON

The foundation of this team was pitching. The simultaneous demise of Brad Penny and Kyle Lohse compromised the rotation. The Cards struggled when their Big Three didn’t pitch. The subsequent use of a four-man rotation for stretches put extra wear and tear on Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright. They could have used those extra off-days. In time, the bullpen wore down too. Jason Motte and Dennys Reyes got hurt and closer Ryan Franklin lost his edge. The team that started the season with a strong rotation and a deep bullpen had neither at crunch time. This led to the Ryan Ludwick trade, which left the offense vulnerable to injury – and of course Colby Rasmus and David Freese quickly got hurt.

DERRICK GOOLD

Offense. The Cardinals, as manager Tony La Russa sternly repeated to me this morning, are A-OK with their batting average, darn it. (And, yes, it is No. 2 in the league at .265, behind Cincinnati.) The Cardinals are also in the top half in runs scored, and their run differential is above average. But, all of that hides how erratic, how befuddling and how, ultimately, unreliable the Cardinals’ offense has been. The Cardinals have been able to score seven or more runs just enough times to mask the strings of games where it seems impossible for them to score three runs. This road trip offers an example. Coming into Houston, they averaged 5.1 runs per game. Dandy. But that average was inflated by two 10-run games, one of which they lost. They have scored two or fewer runs in seven of their previous 16 games. If they won all the other games that’s still a 9-7 record and the Cardinals need much more than that to climb back into contention. The Cardinals have been undone by an offense that is too isolated around two players and too inconsistent to count on from game to game, let alone series to series.

LARRY BOROWSKY (Founder of Viva El Birdos and editor of “Maple Street Press Cardinals Annual”)

I don’t think there is a singular explanation. I do think there’s a singular explanation for why the team has stayed in contention: their superior rotation. But there are many explanations for why they have failed to take control of the race, including shoddy defense, lousy situational hitting, mental lapses, and plain old bad luck. I’d also bet that Tony La Russa and John Mozeliak might like a do-over on some of their 2010 decisions.

But if I’m only allowed to cite one factor, it would be the persistence of a dead zone in the lineup. Three of the Cardinals’ regulars (Brendan Ryan, Skip Schumaker, and Yadier Molina) and their top bench player (Felipe Lopez) are having miserable offensive seasons. All four players have lost at least 30 points off their 2008-09 batting averages and at least 50 points off their slugging percentages. They’re all slugging .356 or below. With three or four of these players in the lineup on any given night, it’s no wonder the Cardinal attack has been so spotty. Even when David Freese and Ryan Ludwick were still active, there weren’t enough good hitters in the lineup to inflict consistent damage. A team is bound to disappoint when half its lineup underperforms.