HOUSTON -- The St. Louis Cardinals huddled around the mirrors in the clubhouse restroom Monday to watch the ceremonial shearing of the teammates and accidentally offer a tidy metaphor for the season.
Their problems go deeper than anything cosmetic can change.
The balded 'Birds then went out and lost for the sixth time in seven games and dropped six games behind surging Cincinnati in the division race. This road trip has taken the Cardinals many places -- but its final destination seems to be closer and closer to out of contention. To borrow a phrase (OK, steal) from here, the only thing that buzzed through more Cardinals than the clubhouse clippers yesterday was lefty J.A. Happ. He was surgical in a 3-0, 2-hour victory at Minute Maid Park.
The Cardinals have made many changes to their roster this season, and often a few to the day-to-day lineup. Several have proven cosmetic, at best. Pedro Feliz has been a fine upgrade at third base, but it's clear the Cardinals settled for a glove when their search for a bat came up empty. Jake Westbrook has provided the Cardinals with five quality starts in six appearances since his trade. Yet, the Cardinals are 1-5 in his starts. He has two losses on this road trip, and the Cardinals have scored two runs for him in 13 innings. Starting to pick up the trend? Injuries and inconsistent performance have eroded the Cardinals offense all season and while other areas have been addressed they have proven to be little more than cosmetic changes. The offseason will determine if the Cardinals are due for more fundamental alterations.
The immediate need is more simple: A win.
Or, as Westbrook described postgame last night, the Cardinals could get a homer, a key play, a zero inning ... something, anything that shoves the smelling salts up the Cardinals nose and jolts them to the reality of the standings (1).
"It could be one hit," Westbrook said. "It could be one well-pitched ballgame. It could be one big hit to get us over the hump. It could be putting up a zero when we need it. It could be making a great play. Who knows? This game is weird. You never know what's it going to take."
Tonight it will take Chris Carpenter.
2. For the 18th time this season, the Cardinals' ace will pitch after a loss and be recast as stopper. The Cardinals are 12-5 in Carpenter's starts after a loss. One of those five losses was a 1-0 drop in Los Angeles, and another was to Bud Norris. Go figure. (There will be no Norris in this three-game series at Houston.) Carpenter, individually, is 6-2 in those 17 games with a 2.96 ERA. He has 6.98 K/9 in the starts after losses. His loss earlier on this road trip ended a streak of five consecutive wins after losses when Carpenter starts.
3. If those numbers off the Cardinals some traction, then these are the aforementioned smelling salts: The Reds are in primo position to run away with the division title. As mentioned last week, the standings offer the cruel calculus ahead for the Cardinals. Consider:
The Reds are 76-55 with 31 games to play.
The Cardinals are 69-60 with 33 games to play.
If the Reds continue to play at their current winning percentage -- .580 -- they will finish the season 94-68. To catch them, to tie them atop the division, the Cardinals must win 25 of their remaining 33 games. Or, simply play at a .758 clip. That is the heart of Baseball Prospectus' playoff odds, which are recalculated daily. BP has the Cardinals right now as having an 8.3 percent shot at winning the division. (The Reds are 91.7 percent.) They have a 18.4 percent chance of winning the Wild Card, and a 26.7 percent chance of making the playoffs.
In the previous seven days, the Cardinals' chances of claiming a spot in October have dropped by 32.9 percent. These are the cold, hard facts about what must happen if ...
... the Reds go .500ish, at 16-15, from here, the Cardinals must go 24-9 to win the division.
... the Cardinals continue playing at their current winning percentage, they'll go 18-15, finish at 87-75, and the Reds have to go 11-20 to tie.
4. A poll is posted above, under the picture.
5. Time for a check on the Triple Crown Standings, which suddenly involves a spoiler in that two-horse race between Cincinnati's Joey Votto and the Cardinals' Albert Pujols. Colorado's Carlos Gonzalez -- who the Rockies got from Oakland in exchange for Matt Holliday, and who the A's got from Arizona in exchange for Dan Haren -- has surged into the top five in the triple-crown categories, and, yes, he's been boosted by some friendly splits at his home ballpark, Coors Field. Votto, meanwhile, is closing in on Pujols' lead in the "counting" stats like homers and RBIs.
The current standings through Monday's games (BA-RBI-HR):
Albert Pujols ... .318 (3rd) ... 95 (1st) ... 35 (1st)
Joey Votto ... .325 (2nd) ... 94 (2nd) ... 32 (3rd)
Carlos Gonzalez ... .326 (1st) ... 91 (3rd) ... 29 (5th)
6. The Reds are getting reinforcements in the form of a rookie flamethrower certain to fill the hype vacuum left by Washington phenom Stephen Strasburg. Cincinnati will add Aroldis Chapman and his 105-mph fastball to their bullpen today, per the Cincinnati Enquirer. Chapman is the young, Cuban lefthander that the Reds surprisingly signed this past offseason. Chapman, 22, commanded a six-year, $30.25-million deal from the Reds. He began the season as a starter before moving to the bullpen to accelerate his rise to the majors. Reports from his recent appearance for Class AAA Louisville said his fastball regularly hit 102 mph on the minor-league gun and touched 105 mph. It will be good to see what Pitch f/X has to say about the fastball -- once he chucks one at a big-league ballpark.
Chapman not only brings the heat, but he has a tinge of wildness that is going to make him that much more unnerving -- especially for lefthanded hitters like the Cardinals' Colby Rasmus, Skip Schumaker and Jon Jay. Chapman figures to be available for that role this weekend when the Reds visit Busch Stadium. Reds GM Walt Jocketty said his team is bringing up Chapman now to make him eligible for the postseason (and apparently he find a former Cardinal to add before this weekend's series). Jocketty's description of Chapman's development as a reliever in the story above reveals plenty: "He's throwing consistently harder. I don't think he hit 105 as a starter. He was 102, 103."
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More throughout the day as I check out minor-league box scores and cruise the links for things like Jim Edmonds' comments about becoming "a family man again" at the end of this season.
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