TOWER GROVE -- Not to be outshined by the newest first-round draft pick to command a bonus well above slot, St. Louis Cardinals prospect pitcher Shelby Miller had himself quite a deadline night, too.
The righthander, pitching for Low-A Quad Cities, retired the first 15 batters he faced. He struck nine of them, and he had a perfect game going into the sixth inning. Miller finished his seventh win of the season with a career-high 11 strikeouts. He allowed two runs on two hits, one of which was a homer, and two walks. He's emerged from his appearance in the Futures Game -- an arbitrary dividing line, to be sure -- as a young pitcher with plus stuff and, now, perpetually improving command of his off-speed pitches.
There was no doubt, none, that entering this season he was the Cardinals' top pitching prospect. At the trade deadline, Cardinals GM John Mozeliak did not have a conversation with another team that did not include a tire-kicking question about what it would take to get Miller. He was in demand. And that, as much as his pitching line so far, validates his place as a prospect.
But is he still No. 1? Still at the top?
Around the trade deadline, the Cardinals acknowledged that they did not have the wealth of prospects needed to go after some of the heavier hitters/pitchers available. They needed a third team to pull of the deal for Jake Westbrook, and it cost them a player off the major-league roster. In regards to their minor-league system, the Cardinals had two goals in the past month or so: 1) Guard the prospects they did have by not peddling them in deals. 2) Replenish the thinned pool of prospects by making aggressive runs at their top draft picks.
Last night, they completed the draft sweepstakes by signing four of their five highest-profile picks. The one they didn't get was the longest shot of the group -- prep outfielder and 12th-round pick Austin Wilson. If you also consider the pitcher the Cardinals are working on signing from the international ranks, here are the five players the Cardinals have added (and their confirmed or reported bonuses) in their attempt to reboot their system:
Zack Cox, 3B -- $3.2 million (confirmed)*
Seth Blair, RHP -- $751,500 (confirmed)
Tyrell Jenkins, RHP -- $1.3 million (confirmed)
Jordan Swagerty, RHP -- $625,000 (confirmed)
Carlos Matias, RHP -- $1.5 million (confirmed)
* Cox will receive a $2 million signing bonus and his total guaranteed value is $3.2 million including his salary for the first four years of his contract.
That is a total outlay of nearly $7.4 million, nearly $2 million more than the Cardinals spent in total bonuses to their draft picks in 2008, and nearly $3 million more than they spent in 2007 for all of their draft picks. Bonuses aren't the only way to judge a draft class or an incoming prospect (consider Roberto De La Cruz from a few seasons ago). But it's a start. Contracts tell a story.
Cox's certainly does.
The third baseman from Arkansas was a sophomore-eligible pick with considerable leverage as one of the best bats available in the draft and a kid who could go back into the 2011 draft without batting an eye. He made clear that it would take a major-league contract to get him. The Cardinals gave him that. He'll go on the 40-man roster and when he goes out to the Gulf Coast League he will be optioned.
But ...
An aside: The Cardinals are not losing an option year in this deal. By putting Cox in the Gulf Coast League, the Cardinals are able to use the calendar to their advantage and get Cox into a league without costing him an option year. A team is allowed to "recall" an optioned player when his team's season ends. The GCL has the earliest end date. So, when the GCL season is over with, the Cardinals will recall Cox -- not to report to the majors, but for paperwork purposes -- and that will undo his option year because it was within 20 days of the initial option. Cox, while starting his career on the 40-man roster, will come to spring training next year as a roster player with four options remaining because he falls into the four options/five pro seasons allowance.
As a result of pulling him back within 20 days, however, Cox will accumulate major-league service time for every day since he signed the contract. The club is then saving that fourth option at the expense of added service time for Cox.
The bet is that it won't batter if he moves as expected.
Cox's $2-million bonus puts him at fourth all-time for the Cardinals and their draft picks. The total worth of his contract, however, eclipses the $3-million bonus given to J.D. Drew in 1998. That is why Mozeliak could say last night that the deal was not the largest bonus in Cardinals' history, while inital reports elsewhere had the bonus pegged at more than Drew's. The official terminology for Cox's deal is a four-year, $3.2-million contract that includes a $2-million bonus.
All of that is context for the larger question presented above. Did the Cardinals effectively rewrite the top of their prospect rankings?
Beyond Miller at No. 1, how radically different is the top five, the top 10?
Consider, the top 10 I put together last year for Baseball America:
1. Shelby Miller, RHP
2. Jaime Garcia, LHP
3. Lance Lynn, RHP
4. Daryl Jones, OF
5. David Freese, 3B
6. Eduardo Sanchez, RHP
7. Allen Craig, OF
8. Blake Hawksworth, RHP
9. Daniel Descalso, 2B
10. Robert Stock, C
The only player in that top five likely to stick in the top five is Miller. A rewrite is in order. And that's what the comment section is for. Give me your top five. Today. Including the newly signed Cardinals and any that you think have emerged this season from the minors.
I think it may be time to dust off the Bird Land 7 -- the top seven prospects without a day in the majors. I welcome you to do the same, as it's possible that three of the above players mentioned in the bonus "chart" will be in that seven:
Cox, 3B: The best position prospect the Cardinals have the moment he steps on the GCL field, and a bat that could move swiftly through the organization.
Jenkins, RHP: An athletic, wiry pitcher who could have played quarterback for Baylor and has plus stuff to go with what has been described as good enough mechanics that aren't as raw as expected for his experience. He throws 95 mph, consistently sitting in that 93-mph territory.
Matias, RHP: The Cardinals are careful to include him in this "draft" class, though their public comments about the pitchers are limited by the ongoing investigation into the Dominican Republic native's paperwork. While his background check is going on, Matias is dominating the DSL. He's 3-2 with 0.76 ERA. That's nice. This is compelling: He has 78 strikeouts and 14 walks in 59 innings pitched.
Toss in Miller, and you've got the makings of a completely new, fresh and different top four. That tells you a lot about the state of the Cardinals system on Monday morning, and how essential development will be for these prospects to go from "scouting reports" and "promise" to actual production.
One of the truisms of ranking prospects is how easy it is to "dream on" a few before their first at-bat, their first inning, and how some of prospecst are never regarded as high as the moment before they throw their first pitch or first swing a bat.
So, who's your top five? I'm off to work on the BL 7.
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