TOWER GROVE -- There is a case to be made that the only rookie in the National League to establish himself during spring training, gain a little hype momentum as the season started, and remain a steady presence throughout the entire season starts tonight for the St. Louis Cardinals.

But is that enough for Jaime Garcia to win Rookie of the Year?

Garcia, the Cardinals' lefty starter who will go for win No. 14 tonight at Milwaukee, doesn't have the Q-rating of Atlanta's Jason Heyward. He doesn't have the production of San Francisco's Buster Posey, and he doesn't contribute every day to the lineup like Florida's Gaby Sanchez. He is obviously the best rookie pitcher in the NL -- outpacing his peers with at least three more wins and an ERA 1 1/2 runs better -- but being the best rookie pitcher hasn't always assured a spot in best rookie conversation.

(1) "If he's the most-deserving, then it shouldn't be a problem with a pitcher being the Rookie of the Year," manager Tony La Russa said this past weekend at Busch Stadium. "As a rookie player and a pitcher, he's right there at the top of the conversation with whoever else you're impressed with."

Hall of Fame baseball writer Rick Hummel handicapped the Rookie of the Year race in this morning's Post-Dispatch (see here). The way the voting works is similar to the Cy Young Award and the MVP. In the NL, there are 32 voters, two each from the 16 member cities. Those ballots went out a few weeks ago, and for the Rookie of the Year each voter has to rank his or her top three picks. Back in 2007, I had a Rookie of the Year ballot and it looked like this: 1. Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado. 2. Ryan Braun, Milwaukee. and, I think, 3. Hunter Pence, Houston. Still feel pretty comfortable with that vote, though the Snow Angel won.

The last pitcher to win the NL Rookie of the Year Award was Florida's Dontrelle Willis is 2003. The last Cardinal to win the award was Albert Pujols in 2001, and the last Cardinal pitcher to win the award Todd Worrell in 1986. That same year Garcia was born.

(2) Garcia compares extremely well against the other NL pitchers who have won the Rookie of the Year Award since the Year There Wasn't a World Series.  Compare:

Garcia, 2010 ... 13-6, 2.35 ERA, 124 K ... 171 ERA+, 3.5 WAR

Willis, 2003 ... 14-6, 3.30 ERA, 142 K ... 127 ERA+, 3.7 WAR

Jennings, 2002 ... 16-8, 4.52 ERA, 127 K ... 106 ERA+, 1.7 WAR

Wood, 1998 ... 13-6, 3.40 ERA, 233 K ... 129 ERA+, 3.7 WAR

Nomo, 1995 ... 13-6, 2.54 ERA, 236 K* ... 150 ERA+, 4.9 WAR

* Led NL.

We've discussed the ERA+ before, and simply it's that players ERA compared against the league average for ERA. The number is based on 100 being average and anything higher than 100 being above average and anything less than 100 being batting practice. It's that "WAR" number that may help clarify Garcia's ability to rise above position players when it comes to this year's vote.

Position players have an edge.

They play every day. Their stats are more tangible. They tend to get more exposure when it comes to national attention. And on and on. Look no further than Heyward. The ROY campaign for the talented Atlanta outfielder began in March, back when he was the 20-year-odl sensation of spring training. Everybody knew his name. It was huge news that he won the starting job for the Braves because he was just too good to be ignored in the Grapefruit League. Naturally, he homered in his first major-league at-bat. And in some corners the Rookie of the Year Award was already engraved.

In south Florida, down the Turnpike a bit, there was another rookie, another twentysomething was having a rather similar March. Garcia elbowed his way into the Cardinals' rotation with an exceptional spring, and it didn't stop there. Garcia, you'll recall, was once positioned to be in the All-Star invite discussion -- and may have been a stronger candidate if not for the two pitchers on his own staff with better credentials.

But comparing Garcia's 13 wins and his 2.35 ERA -- the fifth-best in the NL, rookie or not -- against Heyward's .866 OPS and 65 RBIs is tricky. Does Garcia do enough in his one day every five days to eclipse what Heyward does the other four? "WAR" may offer some insight.

(3) "WAR" is simply Wins Above Replacement, or the number of wins a player adds ahead of a replacement-level player. That's roughly the equivalent of a Four-A Player or journeyman. This is particular appropriate with rookies who, in some cases, aren't too far removed from the level that equates to a replacement player. It's not a perfect comparison, but it at least offers us a real chance to compare the handful of position players with a claim to the Rookie of the Year Award against the one pitcher who whould be the favorite.

Look for yourself:

P Garcia, STL ... 13-6, 2.35 ERA, 171 ERA+, 3.5 WAR

SS Castro, CHC ... .285 BA, 106 OPS+, 0.5 WAR

OF Heyward, ATL ... .285 BA, 133 OPS+, 3.7 WAR

SS Desmond, WSH ... .287 BA, 100 OPS+, 0.3 WAR

1B Sanchez, FLA ... .280 BA, 113 OPS+, 1.3 WAR

1B Davis, NYM ... .258 BA, 113 OPS+, 2.0 WAR

C Posey, SF ... .328 BA, 129 OPS+, 2.0 WAR

2B Walker, PIT ... .312 BA, 128 OPS+, 1.8 WAR

OF Colvin, CHC ... .255 BA, 108 OPS+, 0.1 WAR

OPS+, like ERA+, offers information about how that player's OPS compares to the league average. Figured it was another way to view the race because Garcia's 171 against his peers trounches, say, the 113 of Sanchez. The surprise here is not that Heyward matches the hype by standing out from the other position-player rookies, but that Garcia holds his own and that Sanchez, Posey and Mets' slugger Ike Davis haven't distanced them all that much from Neil Walker, the Pittsburgh Pirates No. 3 hitter who isn't exactly on the tip of everyone's tongues when it comes to Rookie of the Year chatter.

(4) That's the breakdown. Now get to clicking on the poll above.

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(5) A quick check of the Triple Crown race shows that Albert Pujols has slipped almost completely out of the conversation and been replaced by Carlos Gonzalez, who may just have it in him to win the darn thing. Unreal. Pujols' average has dropped to .308, and he ranks seventh in the NL this morning. Here is how he compares to Gonzalez, who has gone a hitting binge to gain traction in the Triple Crown race:

Batting Average: Gonzalez .340 (+.032 from Pujols)

Home Runs: Gonzalez 32 (minus-3 from Pujols)

RBIs: Gonzalez 100 (+3 from Pujols)

(6) So that "favorite storyline" emerged again Tuesday night as the Cardinals struggled to score two runs against former Cardinals' farmhand Chris Narveson. The rally collapsed when Pedro Feliz popped up with the bases loaded. Even a sacrifice fly would have given the Cardinals what amounts to a bounty of runs. This is no way to win a division. And in hindsight, we probably should have seen last night's struggles coming.

Narveson, after all, is lefthanded.

Dial the season back to, say, the home stand when the Cardinals lost to the Chicago Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers. Since then, at the core of the Cardinals' slide is an inability to produce against lefthanded starters. It is a chronic weakness for the Cardinals, and it one that could cost them this season. We've spent a lot of time in here focusing on how the Cardinals have lost to losing teams. Well, they've also lost to lefties.

Since August 18, the Cardinals have had 10 different lefthanders start against them, and the Cardinals are 2-8 in those games. Put the lefties together, and this is their line:

7-2, 1.82 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 5.97 K/9

In 69 1/3 innings against those lefty starters in the past couple weeks, the Cardinals have 48 hits. They almost have as many strikeouts (46). That ERA is low enough, but consider than five of the 14 earned runs the Cardinals have against lefties in that span came in one game -- against San Francisco Giants starter Barry Zito. Subtract him from the list, and this distinguished littany of lefties -- Randy Wolf (MIL), Madison Bumgarner (SF), Paul Maholm (PIT), Scott Olsen (WSH), John Lannan (WSH), J.A. Happ (HOU), Wandy Rodriguez (HOU), Travis Wood (CIN) and Narveson (MIL) -- have put together this line:

7-1, 1.23 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 5.89 K/9

See, that's why the Cincinnati Reds are 6-12 against the Cardinals this season. Only one lefty to throw at them -- Wood. They need to borrow one from Milwaukee.

Like the one going tonight, Chris Capuano.

The favorite storyline continues.

***

(7) Milwaukee closer Trevor Hoffman got the 600th save of his career last night when Aaron Miles hit a groundball for the final out of the Brewers' victory. Hoffman is the first player in baseball history to reach 600 saves, and Mariano Rivera and he are the only ones to have more than 500. The Elias Sports Bureau made an interesting point this morning that on the day Hoffman got his first save -- April 29, 1993 -- the all-time leader for career saves was former Cardinals' closer Lee Smith with 365.

(8) FARMNIK REPORT: In case you missed it this past weekend, the Cardinals' rookie-level affiliate in Johnson City won the Appy League title for the first time in more than three decades. Check the details here at the team's official site. Starter Kevin Siegrist allowed one run on three hits through his 6 2/3 innings in the championship game. ... Third baseman Phillip Cerreto hit .425 with a 1.218 OPS and 38 RBIs in 32 games for Johnson City this season. He won two Appy League Player of the Week awards. ... Triple-A Memphis will defend its Pacific Coast League championship after inching into the postseason with a division-title clinch on the final day of the regular season. The first round against Oklahoma City opens tonight in Memphis. Brandon Dickson is set to start Game 1, and Commercial Appeal's beat writer Marlon Morgan has the preview here. ... Double-A Springfield opens its playoffs tonight as well. Scott McGregor is set to start Game 1. ... Up in Low-A Quad Cities, top prospect Shelby Miller gets the start in Game 1 of the three-game playoff to start the Midwest League's postseason. Steve Batterson, at The Quad Cities Times, has a look at Miller's growth as a pitcher this year and what it has meant to the River Bandits first visit to the playoffs since 2007.

(9) HIT THE LINKS: The swell Tom Haudricourt has the view of No. 600 from the Milwaukee Brewers' clubhouse in this morning's Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. ... Shirts to commemorate the achievement sold fast last night at Miller Park, per this blog entry. ... The headline in the Cincinnati Enquirer this morning says it all: "Reds Slide Continues." The Reds have hit a bump in their road trip, losing for a third consecutive day and falling in the series to the Colorado Rockies. ... Joe Posnanski, at his Sports Illustrated blog and his personal blog, explored the reality of Gonzalez winning the Triple Crown with so much of his work being done at home, adjacent to the humidor and at the foot of the Front Range. ... Fan blog Fungoes discusses the case for a Cardinal to win the MVP: Matt Holliday.

(10) A little late on this, and that's frustrating for me because ever since I was a kid taking the pilgrimage to Tattered Cover it's been one of my favorite issues of Baseball America: Best Tools. The issue takes a poll of major-league managers/coaches and asks simply who is the best at a variety of "tools", from strike-zone judgment to curveball. Here is how the Cardinals fared in this year's poll:

Best Hitter: 1. Albert Pujols

Best Power: 2t. Pujols

Best Strike-Zone Judgment: 1. Pujols

Most Exciting Player: 1. Pujols

(Gonzalez was No. 2)

Best Pitcher: No Cardinal ranked.

Best Curveball: 1. Adam Wainwright. 2. Jaime Garcia

Best Control: 3. Wainwright

Best Defensive Catcher: 1. Yadier Molina

Best Defensive 1B: 2. Pujols

Best Manager: 2. Tony La Russa

The Cardinals were not all that well-represented in the minor-league polls. So we'll discuss that later this week. For now, focus on that "Best Curveball" vote. Remarkably, Garcia -- in just a 1/2 season, because the poll was conducted around the All-Star break -- Garcia has gained the reputaiton of having the second-best curveball in the National League.

This is noteworthy for a few reasons. First, Garcia's curve was his plus pitch moving through the minors, but in the majors -- especially early this season -- he didn't throw all that often. In fact, a teammate once remarked that his slider was good enough that he didn't have to unpack the curve that often, and if that was a better pitch then ... "Goodness," the teammate said. Second, it's entirely possibly that Garcia doesn't have the second best curve on his own team.

Yep. He's got the second-best curveball in the NL, per BA. But a poll of the Cardinals' clubhouse might yield results that put Garcia third or fourth behind Wainwright, Chris Carpenter and Kyle McClellan.

Your thoughts?

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