The series that could define the season

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The series that could define the season
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Playing for October.
Playing for 2011.

TOWER GROVE -- In his office Wednesday morning, a few hours before his club would lose its fifth consecutive game and end a horrific road trip, St. Louis Cardinals manager Tony La Russa fielded a variety of questions that centered on one theme.

What. Has. Happened?

"I had a feeling when we left Cincinnati (after the sweep, with a one-game lead), that we had put ourselves in good position and we still had a lot of work to do. It's never that simple. I don't blame you for picking up that story. The reality is you've still got to play the games, and it's a lot tougher. The reality is a lot tougher. Just like the first six weeks of the season. Everyone was saying the race was over. The race wasn't over. The race wasn't over."

La Russa peppered many of his answers during the series in Houston with the word "story" or "storyline". He understands why the media would seize on the Cardinals' reaction to Brandon Phillips comments as the moment a talented team galvanized. ("We didn't sit around and stumble into wins before that, did we?" he said.) He gets that the Cardinals' precipitous fall fits nicely into familiar plots. He rejected -- several times -- the theme I represented about the team's laggard play being connected to its inconsistent offense. ("We lose as a team," he said. "Manager included.")

And, on Wednesday morning, as he discussed myriad angles on the Cardinals' collapse with a few reporters, it was asked if there was a difference between competitive edge and effort. He asked the reporter to elaborate. The upshot of my question: Had the Cardinals lost their edge? (1)

"That storyline," La Russa said, "is not accurate."

What is accurate is that the Cardinals are on the precipice, inching over the edge and almost falling out of contention. Their contention is that the effort hasn't waned, that the interest, acuity, edge -- whatever pet word you'd like to add -- hasn't fluctuated as much as their play has. La Russa, and others, said the issue is execution. A losing team, especially one confounded by why it cannot find its game, gives off that feel, that look that a malaise has taken root.

General manager John Mozeliak's answer to a similar question was to suggest what might turn it around -- for now, if possible, and for the future.

"What I would like to see us do in the last month is for us to play better baseball and maybe create opportunities for some of our younger players to get some playing time this September," he said. "See if we can't change the atmosphere a little bit."

A good place for both the present and the future to start is with the team's most talented young player: Colby Rasmus.

2. The Cardinals' center fielder returned from a calf injury during the series in Houston, and he batted No. 7 twice and No. 2 once. He went 1-for-9 with a double in the series, and he walked twice. La Russa was one of a few Cardinals who said a way for the team to break loose from this funk, to "go on a rush", and to pull the team back from the brink was to find a third bat to "get hot." Ladies and gentlemen of the jury, allow me to submit into evidence the Case for Colby to bat fifth and be that hitter:

vs. today's starter Bronson Arroyo ... .316 BA, .435 OBP, .842 SLG, six hits in 19 at-bats, two homers, four walks, one strikeout.*

vs. Cincinnati in his career ... .304 BA, .366 OBP, .580 SLG. Seven home runs. 19 RBIs in 31 games.

* More on that later.

In his (almost) two season in the majors, Rasmus has more homers and more RBIs against the Reds than he has any other team in baseball. His .946 OPS vs. Cincinnati is the second-highest of any National League opponent. Later in this 10@10, there are details about how dependent the Cardinals are on the two hitters in the middle of the order and how they need a sidekick. The batter best-suited and now best-situated to be that boost is Rasmus.

3. For an example, check out the opponents, the Cincinnati Reds. The Jay Bruce story is worth revisiting, briefly. When scouting for the 2005 draft, the Cardinals uncovered a prep outfielder who they thought was going to be worth using the 28th pick on. The kid had power potential. He projected to be a good defensive outfielder who could possibly handle center field. He had a good feel for the strike zone and the numbers set loved him. The problem was other teams loved him, too.

The Cardinals thought there was no chance they could draft this player that late in the draft, and sure enough Bruce -- that prep outfielder they fell for -- went 12th overall to the Reds, 16 picks before the Cardinals could have had him.

Officials with the team, however, used Bruce to recalibrate their plans for the 28th or 30th pick. VP Jeff Luhnow later described how the team wanted to find the next player like Bruce, the one who maybe didn't have the same high profile but could have the same potential, if not better. With that as the goal, the scouts and the stats -- that StOut system described before -- found a player who fit. The Cardinals took him 28th overall ... Rasmus.

As the Reds have surged in recent weeks, Bruce, their starting right fielder, has emerged as an engine. He's the bat that brings depth, moves around in the order (he hit three homers at leadoff in a game!), and has fueled the Reds to an eight-game lead. Rasmus, meanwhile, missed two weeks with a calf injury -- a two weeks that during which, not coincidentally, the Cardinals struggled to win. The difference in recent weeks is stark, but the season the comparison is obvious:

Since STL sweep in CIN

Bruce ... 16 games ... .396/.459/.887 ... 1.346 OPS ... 8 HRs, 15 RBIs

Rasmus ... 10 games ... .059/.306/.118 ....478 OPS ... 0 HRs, 0 RBIs

2010 season

Bruce ... 130 games ... .274/.343/.464 ... .807 OPS ... 18 HRs, 58 RBIs ... 113 OPS+

Rasmus ... 115 games ... .264/.350/.494 ... .844 OPS ... 19 HRs, 54 RBIs ... 124 OPS+

4. Some sharp-witted Cardinals fan has posted an ad on CraigsList looking for what he lost this season. Check out the ad here, or see a screenshot of the add at the new Bird Land@Facebook page. St. Louis-based blog Punch Kitty was authored the joke want ad (check that out here), and thanks to all who pointed out the original source to me.

5. Sure it may be a "favorite storyline" of mine, but it's hard to ignore how it's one of the obvious storylines of the season: The Cardinals' lineup, so sporadic and so often anemic all summer, lacks depth of production and its power continues to be isolated around two players. While the Cardinals clearly needed a pitcher at the trade deadline, moving Ryan Ludwick has further exposed how reliant the Cardinals are on Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday to not only provide runs, but provide all of the runs. Take a look at three recent time periods:

In the last 7 Games ...

The Cardinals have 23 runs, 23 RBIs.

Pujols/Holliday have 8 runs, 6 RBIs, 3 HRs for 11 runs created. Or: 47.8 percent.

On the road trip ...

The Cardinals scored 38 runs.

Pujols/Holliday had 15 runs, 14 RBIs, 6 HRs for 23 runs created. Or: 60.5 percent.

Since Aug. 1 ...

The Cardinals scored 131 runs and 124 RBIs.

Pujols/Holliday had 48 runs, 44 RBIs, 16 HRs for 77 runs created. Or: 58.0 percent.

While the absence of Ludwick left a hole the Cardinals never filled, it's worth noting that Ludwick was going to be traded anyway. It was either going to happen during the season or sometime around the Winter Meetings. The Cardinals apparently could not afford to keep Ludwick through his third year of arbitration and do what they need to do financially to re-sign Pujols and outfit the 2011 team. The question then isn't should the Cardinals have traded Ludwick ... it's when? Did they get a better return at the deadline on Ludwick (read: Jake Westbrook) then they would have gotten in the winter? Any thoughts?

6. The Cincinnati Enquirer advances this weekend series with a look at the math that favors the Cincinnati Reds and how far they've come since the Cardinals swept them in early August. Here's a look at the matchup for tonight's game, pitching lefty Jaime Garcia opposite Reds righthander Bronson Arroyo. (There is no truth to the rumor that John Smoltz will be on hand tonight to oversee the mud-rubbing on the baseballs.)

Garcia -- 3-0, 4.08 ERA vs. Reds in three starts. Held Reds to a .215/.311/.277 batting slash line.

Arroyo -- 1-2, 4.78 ERA vs. Cardinals in four starts. Held Cards to a .262/.347/.417 batting slash line.

A potential Cardinals' lineup and how it has done against Arroyo in his career: 1. Schumaker, 2B -- 13-for-36 (.361/.400/.417), 3 BB, 5 K. 2. Jay, RF -- 3-for-7 (.429/.429/.714), 0 BB, 1K. 3. Pujols, 1B -- 17-for-58 (.293/.423/.534), 13 BB, 3 K, 3 HR. 4. Holliday, LF -- 7-for-24 (.292/.346/.500), 2 BB, 6 K, 1 HR. 5. Rasmus, CF -- 6-for-19 (.316/.435/.842), 4 BB, 1 K, 2 HR. 6. Lopez, SS -- 15-for-39 (.385/.429/.667), 3 BB, 2 K, 2 HR. 7. Feliz, 3B -- 4-for-14 (.286/.412/.571), 3 BB, 4 K. 8. Molina, C -- 8-for-31 (.223/.258/.267), 0 BB, 2 K.

And some history that a few Reds have against the Cardinals' rookie lefty: Brandon Phillips -- 3-for-11 (.273/.273/.545), 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HR. Scott Rolen -- 1-for-8 (.125/.222/.125), 1 BB, 3 K. Jay Bruce -- 1-for-7 (.143/.250/.143), 1 BB, 1 K. Jonny Gomes -- 3-for-6 (.500/.625/.667), 2 BB, 0 K. Joey Votto -- 1-for-5 (.200/.333/.200), 1 BB, 2 K. Drew Stubbs -- 1-for-6 (.167/.375/.667), 2 BB, 2 K.

7. A stat that I never found a way to wedge into the stories from the Houston Astros series: Sure the Cardinals were shutout in back-to-back games for the second time this season and only the second time in La Russa's time with the club. But they also pulled off something Monday and Tuesday that they had not done in 94 years. Those first two games in Houston were the first time since 1916 that the Cardinals had been shut out and held to three hits or fewer in consecutive games. The stat was confirmed by Fox Sports Midwest and other research services.

8. FARMNIK REPORT: Low-A Quad Cities entices fans to the ballpark this weekend with Tony La Russa Bobblehead Day. The bobblehead features a sunglassed La Russa giving signs or checking his pulse. One of the two. ... The River Bandts won, 7-4, in the 11th inning Thursday. Shelby Miller got the start and he allowed one run on five hits through his five innings. The righthander struck out eight and walked one. There's little doubt who the Cardinals' top prospect is, but will Miller also be the pitcher of the year. (I've got to choose that Baseball America awards for the season ASAP.) ... Edgar Lara hit a solo home run in the eighth for Quad Cities. ... Daryl Jones hit a leadoff homer for Class AA Springfield in a 9-7 loss. The S-Cards led 5-0 after a two-run homer from Jose Garcia. ... Class AAA Memphis is in a playoff race that the big-league club would be envious of. The Redbirds won Thursday, 3-2, against New Orleans and they are now tied with the Iowa Cubs for first place. The I-Cubs and Memphis play a four-game series to finish the season at Iowa. ... The Redbirds defeated the (ahem, Denver) Zephyrs without an extra-base hit. Daniel Descalso had two singles, and Tyler Greene, batting leadoff, had one. ... Greene is on a tear. He has 21 hits and eight doubles in his previous 16 games. In August, Greene hit .310/.379/.483, and the big-league Cardinals are leaving the shortstop -- yes, he's playing shortstop for Memphis -- there to help boost the Redbirds to the postseason. Insert question mark here.

9. HIT THE LINKS: In this morning's Post-Dispatch, Todd C. Frankel takes a look at the lowest rung in professional baseball and one of the oldest players trying to hold on to it. ... Brian Costello and Joel Sherman report in this morning's New York Post that Alex Rodriguez has left Scott Boras, the agent who made him the richest player in baseball history. ... Paul Sullivan, of the Chicago Tribune, takes a look at the position of Chicago Cubs manager through the eyes of two others who had it. He asks: Toughest job in sports? ...

10. In this morning's paper, I mention that Mozeliak rejected the adjective "stale" to describe the team when I asked. There wasn't room to elaborate on his answer in that article -- not with the other stuff that had to be covered -- but there's ample space here. So here's how he answered a question about whether he felt the clubhouse was stale, that the team lacked fizz on the field:

"Stale is not the word I would use," Mozeliak said. "I think when we broke camp there was a sense of energy and newness, and we played like that for awhile. As we sit here today, it's easy to use words like 'stale' or 'flat' or 'no energy' when you're going through a losing period late in the season. That's natural. ... But one thing about this coaching staff is they're always going to work hard to put players in position to succeed.

"I don't think that would ever be a question."

-30-

Copyright 2012 STLtoday.com. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

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