ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. • In his blog and during his radio show on Thursday, Post-Dispatch columnist Bernie Miklasz sought to answer the question: Where would the St. Louis Cardinals be without Lance Berkman? I wondered today where Lance Berkman is going with them.
Berkman launched two home runs on Thursday night in Baltimore at Camden Yards - shots that traveled a combined 866 feet and are two of the longer homers hit by a Cardinal this season. For this he gets the game ball. But let's move on from there and really look at what's possible for Puma. With more than a week to go before the ceremonial midpoint of the season the Cardinals' switch-hitting addition leads the team with 20 homers and 58 RBIs, and he's closing his grasp on the Comeback Player of the Year Award. It's difficult to quantify where the Cardinals would be without their $8-million acquisition of the winter, but as Miklasz pointed out it certainly wouldn't be in a tie for first place.
But where is this headed? How does this compare to Berkman's past first-half performances?
He's had more homers. He's had higher averages. He's driven in more runs. He's even had a higher OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage). But with 10 games to go before the All-Star break and the All-Star Game to which he's soon going to get an invitation, Berkman has put together one of the most productive first halves of his career. Since his first 400-at-bat season in 2001, Berkman has topped .900 with his first-half OPS nine times. Ranking his first halves by that number alone looks like this:
2001 ... 84 games ... 1.180 OPS
2008 ... 93 games ... 1.096 OPS
2002 ... 85 games ... 1.053 OPS
2006 ... 81 games ... 1.011 OPS
2004 ... 86 games ... 1.008 OPS
2011 ... 72+ games ... .997 OPS
2000 ... 51 games ... .972 OPS
2009 ... 85 games ... .929 OPS
2003 ... 88 games ... .915 OPS
2005 ... 58 games ... .858 OPS
2007 ... 84 games ... .839 OPS
2010 ... 74 games ... .829 OPS
Since individual OPS is individualized but not in a vacuum - a player's OPS rises and falls, naturally, as power does within the game - there is a better stat to illustrate how a single hitter has produced when compared to his peers and the time period. That number, OPS+, is simply based around 100 being the league average and everything better than 100 being above average and anything below 100 being well, below, average.
Berkman's OPS+ for the first half of 2011 is 179.
Only twice before in his career has he had an OPS+ higher.
In 2006, Berkman had 24 homers and 66 RBIs at the break to go with the 1.011 OPS mentioned above. Compared to the rest of the league, however, he had a 161 OPS+. That's hearty, but it's also in context. In 2002, a young switch-hitter cinched his second All-Star Game appearance with 29 homers, 81 RBIs and a .639 slugging percentage at the break. His 179 OPS+ that season matches what he's done this season when compared to the rest of the league.
Here are Berkman's first halves ranked by OPS+, but ornamented with other stats (batting line stats are the usual BA/OBP/SLG):
*2001 ... 206 OPS+ ... .365/.466/.714 ... 72 runs, 25 HR, 79 RBIs
*2008 ... 193 OPS+ ... .347/.443/.653 ... 79 runs, 22 HR, 73 RBIs
*2002 ... 179 OPS+ ... .294/.414/.639 ... 58 runs, 29 HR, 81 RBIs
2011 ... 179 OPS+ ... .296/.405/.592 ... 47 runs, 20 HR, 58 RBIs
*2004 ... 165 OPS+ ... .299/.452/.556 ... 50 runs, 16 HR, 59 RBIs
*2006 ... 161 OPS+ ... .317/.404/.607 ... 48 runs, 24 HR, 66 RBIs
2009 ... 148 OPS+ ... .271/.403/.526 ... 49 runs, 18 HR, 55 RBIs
2000 ... 142 OPS+ ... .299/.379/.593 ... 35 runs, 12 HR, 33 RBIs
2003 ... 142 OPS+ ... .279/.403/.513 ... 62 runs, 17 HR, 59 RBIs
2005 ... 130 OPS+ ... .295/.399/.459 ... 31 runs, 6 HR, 33 RBIs
2007 ... 126 OPS+ ... .263/.389/.450 ... 48 runs, 15 HR, 57 RBIs
2010 ... 125 OPS+ ... .255/.369/.459 ... 32 runs, 12 HR, 43 RBIs
The years with asterisks mark the five summers that he's been selected for the All-Star Game. This year figures to be the sixth, as he's the surest of healthy Cardinals to get voted into the starting lineup or, at the least, get selected for the roster. Berkman has been steadily in the top three for NL outfielders in each of the weekly releases of All-Star voting, and he was more than 250,000 votes ahead of teammate Matt Holliday. Surges in voting are not unusually, but Berkman has a strong lead.
Every time Berkman has reached the break with this kind of production in the first half, he's been an All-Star. And every time he's been an All-Star ... well, that's where a career coincidence comes in that is worth noting for the Cardinals. If you're wondering where this will take Berkman and last season's two-homer second half and .331 post-break slugging has caught your eye, then consider what a strong first half has traditionally meant for Berkman. Back in 2008, Berkman had a .347 average at the break, 22 homers and 73 RBIs. He hit only seven homers with a .259 average and a .436 slugging in the second half, but his overall season (.312-29-106 in triple crown stats) was enough to put him in the top five in MVP voting.
That continued a career trend for Berkman.
Every time he's been an All-Star he has finished in the top seven in voting for the National League. The trend is part coincidence, part production and part solid head start. But it's still a trend. He was third in the voting after an All-Star year in 2002, seventh in 2004, third in 2006, and so on. Every time he reaches the midpoint as an All-Star he reaches the end as an MVP candidate. Every time.
***
2011 Game Ball totals: Lance Berkman 1, Mitchell Boggs 1, Chris Carpenter 1, Tony Cruz 2, Daniel Descalso 1, Ryan Franklin 1, Jaime Garcia 1, Lance Lynn 2, Kyle McClellan 1, Jason Motte 1, Colby Rasmus 1, Fernando Salas 1, Skip Schumaker 2, Ryan Theriot 1, Opponents 8, Replay 1.
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