TOWER GROVE • Earlier this morning, in this entry about the Cardinals new amateur scouting director Dan Kantrovitz, I referenced Keith Law's prospect rankings at ESPN.com. He was highly complimentary of the Cardinals' system and aggressive with rankings of several Cardinals' minor-leaguers.
Baseball writer Kevin Goldsten offered a different look a few minutes after I posted the previous article.
Goldstein, the prospects specialist for Baseball Prospectus, posted his annual Top 101 this morning, and it's not behind the paywall at BP so you can read it right now. Pitcher Shelby Miller, a top-five prospect for Law, barely makes Goldstein's top 10. Reliever Jordan Swagerty, an intriguing arm who could see the majors this summer, does not crack the 101, though Law had him at No. 92. Slugger Matt Adams didn't make Law's list, but he's rather high on Goldstein's. And so on.
Five Cardinals made Goldstein's list of the top 101 prospects in baseball, and here they are, with Law's rankings in parentheses:
10. RHP Shelby Miller (Law: 5)
23. OF Oscar Taveras (Law: 53)
31. RHP Carlos Martinez (Law: 22)
69. 1B Matt Adams (Law: N/R)
88. 2B Kolten Wong (Law: N/R)
Goldstein's Cardinals-specific rankings offer some insight into their place on his overall rankings. Late last week, Goldstein published his top 11 Cardinals prospects. (The list is behind the paywall.) The five players who made his top 101 were all "four-star" or better prospects. Miller and Taveras merited "five-star" classification from Goldstein.
Martinez offers the biggest difference between the two rankings. Many scouts and pundits are high on Martinez after seeing him rifle through the Midwest League. Goldstein, who saw the righty in person pitching for Low-A Quad Cities, makes a point alluded to the article about Kantrovitz.
"It's easy to dream on Martinez as a stud starter," Goldstein writers in his review of the righty, "but many scouts project a bullpen role for him, particularly as a closer."
Goldstein's top 11 is very similar to the top 10 I help put together for Baseball America -- if, that is, you allow me to exclude the players not eligible for Goldstein's list because they appeared in the majors already:
1. RHP Shelby Miller (BA: 1)
2. OF Oscar Taveras (BA: 3)
3. RHP Carlos Martinez (BA: 2)
4. 1B Matt Adams (BA: modified 7)
5. 2B Kolten Wong (BA: 5)
6. RHP Tyrell Jenkins (BA: 6)
7. 3B Zack Cox (BA: 4)
8. RHP Trevor Rosenthal (BA: modified 9)
9. RHP Jordan Swagerty (BA: modified 8)
10. 3B Matt Carpenter (BA: modified 10)
11. SS Ryan Jackson (BA: modfied 11)
Of Taveras, Goldstein writes: "He could be a .300+ hitter with 20 home runs annually" in a "perfect world" scenario.
Goldstein adds OF Charlie Tilson, RHP Maikel Cleto and LHP John Gast as prospects worth noting from deeper in the rankings. He, like a lot of pundits, believes Lance Jeffries, the local St. Louis kid, is a quality sleeper coming out of the 2011 draft.
In conclusion, Goldstein writes about the system: "The Cardinals' system is, in many ways, fascinating one. While Miller is a no-brainer as the system's top prospect, scouts have mixed reviews about the abilities and upside of nearly every prospect below him. My rankings could be right or wrong, but there is no question that this system has improved significantly."
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