TOWER GROVE • On their way home with the World Series championship in 2011, the St. Louis Cardinals had a record amount of difficulty getting around second base safely this past season.
Some time late in September as the wild-card berth appeared within reach, the Cardinals set the record for the most double plays grounded into in a single season by a National League club. The 2011 Cardinals broke the 50+-year-old record set by the 1958 Cardinals by bouncing into 169 double plays.
You may have heard.
But, according to current edition of The Bill James Handbook (available here), the Cardinals' baserunning troubles went well beyond their penchant for double dips. The Cardinals, according to the measures Bill James uses, were the worst baserunning team in the majors. They had a "net gain" on the bases of minus-66, 15 worse than the next closest club (Pittsburgh Pirates, minus-51). James and his staff come to that conclusion by adding the bases lost because of poor running and double plays (45) to those lost trying to steal a base (21). The best baserunning club in the majors was the Texas Rangers, the club the Cardinals defeated in the World Series. The Rangers had a net gain of plus-113, grabbing 60 extra bases through running and 53 extra bases through outright theft.
So, the best baserunning team wins the American League and the worst wins the National League and what really does this number tell you about winning? There's clearly not a link between net gain or net loss on the bases and a team's record/success. The six teams with the five lowest net gain scores come from all over the standings:
30. Cardinals ... minus-66
29. Pittsburgh Pirates ... minus-51
28. Chicago White Sox ... minus-41
27. Atlanta Braves ... minus-24
26. Detroit Tigers ... minus-23
Los Angeles Angels ... minus-23
These numbers need to come with what can only be called the Cardinals caveat because it is especially true in the Cardinals' case: It's what happens when a team gets a lot of runners on base.
The Cardinals led the National League with a .341 on-base percentage and they had the most total baserunners of any team in the league. As Matt Holliday foretold as early as April, the Cardinals were primed to hit into double plays because they had a) a lot of runners on base, b) a righthanded-heavy lineup and c) not the speediest of middle-order hitters. That was a recipe for record GiDPs. Same holds for some of the other metrics that James uses to arrive at the conclusion that the Cardinals were the worst baserunning team in the majors.
• The Cardinals advanced from first base to third base on singles more times than any other team in the majors. They did so 120 times. The LA Dodgers were next with 108. Of course, the Cardinals had 374 opportunities to advance from first to third, nearly 40 more than the Dodgers, 100 more than the Pirates and more than any other team in the majors.
• The Cardinals went second to home 132 times on singles this past season, and again they did that more than any other team in the majors. They did not, however, have the most opportunities to do so. Texas, Philadelphia, the Mets, Kansas City, Boston and Detroit all had at least one more opportunity to score from second on a single.
• The Cardinals took 154 bases and were caught advancing 27 times. Three playoff teams were caught out on the bases more often, including the aggressive Arizona Diamondbacks (45 outs).
• And, finally, the Cardinals had 1,156 opportunities to ground into double plays. They did so 169 times for a conversion percentage of 14.6 percent. Other teams had more opportunities (Tigers had 1,292), but only one other team had as many as 150 GiDPs (Baltimore at 154).
All of that goes to prove the formula for trouble discussed here in September: (OBP+RHB)/MPH = DP. Or, the more runners there are on base the more likely a team is to, you know, make outs on the bases.
But ...
It's a fair question as the Cardinals look ahead to life after Albert Pujols to wonder if they could gain some of the offense lost by being better on the bases.
The Cardinals led the NL in many offensive categories in 2011, and they did arguably boast the franchise's deepest lineup since the 100-win clubs from last decade. The truth is they ran (or grounded) themselves out of even more runs. With Pujols taking his WAR out west, it's clearly a question on where the Cardinals are going to regain some of that offense -- and maybe the margin of error for runners lost at second or elsewhere on the diamond is less.
Consider James' baserunning stats for two of the players the Cardinals won't have back for 2012:
Albert Pujols -- 29 double plays in 133 chances (21.8 percent) and a minus-23 net gain on the bases.
Ryan Theriot -- 15 double plays in 62 chances (24.2 percent) and a minus-20 net gain on the bases.
Now, look at the lineup/regulars the Cardinals will have in place for 2012, given health, and here are their DP rates and net scores:
Rafael Furcal -- 3 double plays in 42 chances (7.1 percent) and a plus-4 net gain on the bases.
Carlos Beltran -- 18 double plays in 144 chances (12.5 percent) and a plus-8 gain on the bases.
Matt Holliday -- 21 double plays in 106 chances (19.8 percent) and a minus-12 net gain on the bases.
Lance Berkman -- 7 double plays in 103 chances (6.8 percent) and a minus-5 net gain on the bases.
David Freese -- 18 double plays in 81 chances (22.2 percent) and a minus-13 net gain on the bases.
Jon Jay -- 11 double plays in 90 chances (12.2 percent) and a minus-2 net gain on the bases.
Allen Craig -- 7 double plays in 43 chances (16.3 percent) and a plus-2 net gain on the bases.
Yadier Molina -- 21 double plays in 106 chances (19.8 percent) and a minus-22 net gain on the bases.
Skip Schumaker -- 10 double plays in 68 chances (14.7 percent) and an even net gain on the bases.
Daniel Descalso -- 3 double plays in 67 chances (4.5 percent) and a plus-10 net gain on the bases.
It's not exactly a straight one-for-one swap, but it's possible to see how the Cardinals could gain some offense by losing some minus net gains on the bases. The Beltran/Furcal combo was a plus-12 vs. the Pujols/Theriot combo's minus-43. That's oversimplifying things, of course.
But another run at the double play record is unlikely.
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