JUPITER, Fla. • Perhaps the wound is still fresh from the Albert Pujols' negotiations and the view is skewed from the buy-in it took just to be connected to the three-time MVP in a rumor. Perhaps all those record numbers and dizzying amount of dollars have incorrectly warped the perception of the offer it will take to sign the next Cardinal who is on deck as a free agent.

Perhaps that's why there doesn't seem to be a sense for Yadier Molina's market value.

Or, perhaps it's because Molina is hard to fit into a market.

Earlier this week, Molina chatted with the media here at spring training about the forthcoming expiration of his contract and his interest in signing a contract with the Cardinals. He has told several reporters that he "learned a lot" from watching Pujols, his friend, go through last season and free agency this winter. Molina then dropped the standard description of what's ahead.

"It's business," he said.

He likes the town. He likes the city. He likes the team. He likes his teammates. But in the end he'll go where the offer is right.

Estimates of what that "right" offer is for Molina have been wildly speculative or irresponsibly incorrect. Some of the figures thrown about would make Molina not only one of the highest paid players on the team (that's entirely possible), but also a record-setter for when it comes to his position (Ivan Rodriguez Division). Molina will turn 30 this season, and that is a leading indicator of the length of deal he could command (think five, or thereabouts). As for the salary? Well ...

Baseball is a market-driven sport, which is why going into the Pujols' negotiations you saw the sides stake out two sides of the market. You could triangulate the offer from home. There was Alex Rodriguez and his $250-million, 10-year deal hanging out there. There was Ryan Howard's five-year, $125-million deal and its $25 million AAV (annual average value). And there was Mark Teixeira's eight-year, $180-million deal with the New York Yankees. Somewhere at the confluence of the best-player-in-the-game market and the elite-first-baseman market was going to be the soft spot for a deal with Pujols. And look where it ended up.

With one exception, the catcher's market historically has not been robust.

Other than Joe Mauer, no catcher has had an AAV higher than $13.1 million. According to Cot's Baseball Contracts, which has been moved under the Baseball Prospectus umbrella, there are only two positions other positions that have not had at least two players in history with AAVs of $14 million or higher. Relief pitcher is one, and second base is the other. Subtract Mauer from the equation because he's a best-player candidate, and the only position with a lower record AAV than catcher is second base.

This gives you a sense of the type of market that Molina is entering as a free agent -- and thus the kind of contract offer it will take to keep the four-time Gold Glove winner.

According to Cot's, here are the top 10 AAVs for catcher:

1. Joe Mauer ... $23 million
2. Jorge Posada ... $13.1 million
3. Mike Piazza ... $13.1 million
4. Jason Varitek ... $10 million
-- Ivan Rodriguez .. $10 million
-- Jason Kendall ... $10 million
7. Mike Napoli ... $9.4 million
8. Ivan Rodriguez ... $8.5 million
9. Joe Mauer ... $8.25 million
10. Kenji Johjima ... $8 million

Here are the top seven active AAVs for catchers:

1. Mauer ... $23 million
2. Napoli ... $9.4 million
3. Russell Martin ... $7.5 million
4. John Buck ... $6 million
5. Miguel Montero ... $5.9 million
6. Brian McCann ... $4.67 million

This ranking is somewhat skewed by the length of these contracts. Napoli, the Texas Rangers' catcher, cracks this group because he's on a one-year deal that was just signed to avoid arbitration. McCann is nearing a $12-million option, but his AAV is shifted down because the overall value of his contract averages out to a much lower salary for its length. Ditto Molina. The Cardinals' catcher will make $7 million in 2012, but he is not on the above list because the average of his salary over the length of the contract is less than $4.67 million.

Molina is entering the final year of a five-year, $21.5 million contract. This is the option year on a deal that guaranteed him $15.5 million over four years.

He will be the highest paid catcher in the division this season.

Throughout the National League, only Atlanta Braves All-Star McCann will make more - at $8.5 million.

A look around the league is helpful when it comes to gauging just what an elite catcher should make these days, and let us start with the assumption that Molina is an elite catcher. I know, really going out on a limb there. Here is the breakdown of how individual teams in the NL are spending on their backstops:

NYM - Josh Thole, $480,000 at least (minimum)
PHI - Carlos Ruiz, $3.7 million ($5 million option for 2013)
WAS - Wilson Ramos, $480,000 at least
MIA - John Buck, $6 million
ATL - Brian McCann, $8.5 million

STL - Yadier Molina, $7 million
HOU - Chris Snyder, $750,000 ($4 million option for 2013)
CHC - Geovany Soto, $4.3 million
MIL - Jonathan Lucroy, $480,000 at least
PIT - Rod Barajas, $4 million ($3.5 million option for 2013)
CIN - Ryan Hanigan, $1.2 million

LAD - Matt Treanor, $850,000 ($950,000 option for 2013)
SF - Buster Posey, $575,000ish
AZ - Miguel Montero, $5.9 million
COL - Ramon Hernandez, $3.2 million ($3.2 million option for 2013)
SD - Nick Hundley, $2 million

And since there has been a lot of transitive property dot-connecting with Pujols signing with the Angels, Pujols and Molina being close friends, and therefore, QED, Molina signing with the Angels, let's look at the LAA catching situation. Chris Iannetta has arrived there from Colorado, and he's brought with him a favorable contract. Iannetta will make $3.55 million this season, according to Cot's, and he has a $5 million option for 2013. (UPDATE: Iannetta has the right to void that option since he was traded before the 2013 season.)

That word keeps coming up with these catchers.

Options.

It seems like a lot of them have options for 2013 and that usually means one thing for a team like the Cardinals: They have options, too.

Any measure of what a player is worth to a given team is going to have to factor in what alternatives are out there. When measuring what they are willing to pay to keep Molina, the Cardinals must also calculate what it would cost them to replace him. This is guns and butter stuff. Supply meets demand. And the supply of catchers on the horizon is intriguing.

Last season, 13 players had at least 300 at-bats while playing catcher and a total OPS (on-base-plus-slugging percentage) of .750 or greater. Subtract Victor Martinez, Detroit's designated hitter who is out for the season with a knee injury, and you're left with a nice, tidy dozen backstops. They range from slugger Napoli to Iannetta to Molina, who had a career year at the plate. Of those 12 catchers, six can be free agents at the end of the 2012 season. Six.

Of course, there are options to consider.

But these are also options for a team to consider.

An interesting comparison for Molina comes straight from the World Series, where Rangers catcher Napoli shined as an offensive force. Napoli was arbitration eligible this winter, and there were reports that the Rangers and their backstop were going to try and get a multi-year deal done. It didn't happen. Napoli submitted a salary of $11.8 million to the arbiter and the Rangers submitted an $8.3-million figure. Perhaps to the benefit of the Cardinals, the exchange didn't get to a decision. Before a hearing, the two sides settled on the aforementioned $9.4-million salary for 2012.

There were reports from Texas that Napoli was aiming for a four-year, $52-million extension the likes of which Martinez signed.

This makes some sense as Martinez signed that deal as a catcher who was very clearly going to evolve into the designated hitter role. Both Napoli and Martinez are offense-first catchers.

Look at the list again of the top AAVs at the position and you'll see a trend.

Mauer won three batting titles. Posada was a productive, switch-hitting and essential part of the Yankees' deep lineup. Piazza brought unusual power to the position. And so on. Mauer is a strong defensive catcher, but the best defensive catcher to crack the AAV list there was Rodriguez, and it's not even close. By the time Rodriguez turned 30 he had hit at least 20 homers in a single season five times and twice driven in more than 90 runs. Oh, and he won the league MVP award at age 27. He was a middle-order hitter on his way to 311 career homers who also won 13 Gold Gloves. Offense pays.

Napoli turned 30 in October and he brought to the arbitration discussion no Gold Gloves, a .264/.359/.514 slash line, and 122 homers in six seasons. Molina does not turn 30 until July, and he'll bring into this season four Gold Gloves, a .274/.331/.377 slash line, and 55 homers in eight seasons.

The catcher's position remains one of the few where the salaries do not yet rise to the demands. Multi-year contracts appear to be rare. The salaries are not as lucrative as the responsibilities would imply. Napoli is going to push the market value. McCann's $12-million salary for 2013 is going to define the market value.

And this much is clear: Molina is going to pursue his market value.

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