TOWER GROVE • A few days before Thanksgiving last week, Baseball America released its list of the top 10 prospects in the St. Louis Cardinals system. Each year I help compile the list for the magazine and work on the top 30 list that appears in the annual Prospect Handbook. Part of the rollout of the top 10 is a chat at BA's official Web site.
But why limit the conversation to that site?
I opened the floor here, on the Bird Land@Facebook page, and at my P-D email address for questions about the top 10, about the top 30, about the prospects and about the Cardinals' minor-league system as a whole. I'll continue taking such questions all week as we all prep for the Winter Meetings in Dallas. Here is the first batch of questions ...
Q: My question is about Sam Freeman. Sam's friends in the Dallas area were excited to see Sam put on the 40-man roster, although I know it might be a procedural move based on organizational purposes. He is having a great winter in the Venezuelan league. And I am guessing the team wants him to have Triple-A experience before thinking about him being truly called up. So please tell me what you think about his possible arc in the Cardinals organization. I appreciate your thoughts.
-- Steven from Carrollton, Texas
DG: You are thinking correctly. Freeman was on the fast track before Tommy John surgery interrupted his first taste of major-league spring training. He spent last season strengthening his arm after missing all of 2010. According to scouts and coaches, he was able to regain his velocity during the season and the extra innings in Venezuela will help. Freeman was the system's top LOOGY (lefty one-out guy) prospect before his injury, and the team hopes that he can regain that foothold on the depth chart this season with a quality turn at Triple-A Memphis. The Cardinals' are thin on lefty relievers and could use, for the first time in a long time, a specialist emerging from the system instead of constantly having to shop for one in the free-agent market.
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Q: What does the future hold for (Eduardo) Sanchez? He was exciting to watch this past season and looking forward to see what he can bring with more experience.
-- Everett Probasco from Bury St Edmunds, United Kingdom
DG: UK! Bloody fantastic. In Bury St. Edmunds are you required to only drink Greene King products there? As for Sanchez, there exist high hopes that he can grow into a setup role and perhaps emerge as an Octavio Dotel-like reliever. His slight frame and his shoulder troubles do raise concerns about his stamina and his durability for a long season. There is no doubting his stuff. He's the prototype for an effective late-inning reliever and could be the setup righty to Fernando Salas's fireman.
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Q: Any help on the way for the Cards SS/ 2b issues? Will (Tyler) Greene be a factor next year? How long till Wong is ready? With all that third base talent and the emergence of Freese, it looks like lots of trade bait for a good SS or 2B. My daughter in law is the design editor at Baseball America. Her name is Sara McDaniel.
-- Larry McDaniel from Silver City, New Mexico
DG: Tyler Greene is out of options and will be given every opportunity to be a factor in 2012. Like so many on the roster, his immediate future rests on free-agent decisions yet to be made this winter. The Cardinals have a shortstop prospect who is on the cusp of the top 10, and his name his Ryan Jackson. The starter at shortstop in Class AA last season, Jackson went off to the Arizona Fall League for seasoning and experience as a utility player. He's earmarked to be the shortstop at Triple-A Memphis, unless Pete Kozma can hold him off. Jackson is a nimble fielder with an accurate arm. His bat has been and will be the question. He hit well in the offense-happy Texas League. His knack for getting on base will be tested in Memphis, and there are many who are eager to see what he does with brief appearances this spring at the major-league camp. Kolten Wong hit well in Low-A, so the possibility exists that he'll pull a Matt Adams and skip ahead to Class AA, but that's not a given. What's more likely is that Wong will follow the Zack Cox schedule and start 2012 with a month or so at High-A Palm Beach before advancing to Springfield. At the Texas League, the Cardinals and scouts will get a good feel for when Wong will be ready. He has the look of a quick mover, but it's early. For somebody to be trade bait, another team has to be interested. If Albert Pujols returns, Adams could fit that description.
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Q: The BA 2015 projected lineup has Allen Craig at 1B not Albert Pujols. Is the thinking that the Cards won't re-sign him or that they will but he won't be the starting 1B by 2015?
-- bling, from the comments section
DG: Speaking of Pujols ... Good question. It's a little inside journalism, but it's worth explaining. So, the projected lineup portion of the BA entry has "style rules." Just like certain players are eligible for the Top 10 list, there are rule when it comes to who is eligible for the projected lineup. One of those rules is quite simple: The player must be under contract at this moment. That's why Matt Holliday and Adam Wainwright can be listed on the 2015 lineup and why Pujols is not. If we could reasonably expect Lance Berkman to be around in 2015 then I could have listed him, too, because he's under contract. Simply put, Pujols is not listed at first base for no other reason than he's not eligible to be by the guidelines set by Baseball America. If he re-signs with the Cardinals before the Handbook goes to print, then Pujols will be listed at 1B and Craig will shuffle out to RF.
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Q: If possible, can you post the link from last year's top 10? Just curious to see the reasoning....
-- bostonbird fan, from the comments section
DG: It is possible. Here goes. But for those who don't want to follow the link for the reasoning behind the 2011 Top 10, here it is:
1. Shelby Miller, rhp
2. Zack Cox, 3b
3. Carlos Martinez, rhp
4. Tyrell Jenkins, rhp
5. Allen Craig, of/1b
6. Lance Lynn, rhp
7. Eduardo Sanchez, rhp
8. Seth Blair, rhp
9. Jordan Swagerty, rhp
10. Joe Kelly, rhp
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Q: I am wondering why you left Joe Kelly totally out, Yet Adams is back on?
--- johnwvideo, from the comments section
DG: Back on? Back onto what? Adams was a whiff on my part last season. Adams wasn't ranked in the top 30 for this past season, and that was a big miss on my part. I admit it. I know the reasoning behind not ranking him, and I have corrected that approach when it comes to the 2012 Top 30. Adams set a franchise record for homers at Springfield, toyed with a Triple Crown pursuit in the Texas League, won that league's Player of the Year award, and was likened by at least one scout to Freddie Freeman, Atlanta's first baseman. That's top 10-worthy stuff right there. Impossible to ignore. Kelly was not left "totally out." He just didn't crack the top 10. Rest assured, Kelly is the in the top 20. He had a representative 2011, regained the velocity he didn't show during spring training, and continued to progress as a starter. Some of the Cardinals' prospects dropped a few spots this season because players like Wong and Oscar Taveras pushed their way into the top 10. When I started doing these rankings many years ago it was difficult to finish a top 15 list for the Cardinals' system. Once you got past the No. 9 or No. 12 ranks all of the "prospects" seemed just about the same. It is a sign of the enhancement the Cardinals made in the minors that a pitcher with Kelly's resume slips to the edges of the top 15.
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Q: Thanks for the outstanding coverage on Bird Land! I enjoy reading the information on the Cardinal prospects. I agree with your top 10 ranking. The only change I would make is to bump Lynn and Sanchez ahead of Jenkins. Those two impressed me (especially Lynn during the postseason!) Hopefully Jenkins someday will be a top starter for the big club. Also Martinez impressed me during the Future Game...some outstanding stuff. I think experience and maturity with him...can Dennis Martinez be his permanent mentor? Keep up the great work!
-- Jeff Williams from Sikeston, Missouri
DG: The Cardinals have had internal discussions about keeping Carlos Martinez in High-A Palm Beach to start this season partially because it will allow him to continuing working with Dennis Martinez, the pitching coach there. Carlos will also be reunited with Johnny Rodriguez, his manager at Low-A Quad Cities at the start of last season. As for Lynn and Sanchez ranking ahead of Tyrell Jenkins - there is easily an argument to be made for that edit to the top 10. I made it myself at one point. But you explained why they weren't in your comment. Jenkins has the look of a high-ceiling starter. Production is only one of the factors when ranking prospects. Potential is another.
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Q: how did each of the prospects do in Arizona Fall League this year? Please give us their stats and how the press might have rated them compared with the other top prospects. If Albert leaves we will need an additional bat-outfield or mid infield. Are any of our prospects ready to fill that role or will we have to deal 1 or more for an established major leaguer? Thanks
-- Stephen Loeb (no hometown given)
DG: The Arizona Fall League does an excellent job of keeping statistics for every player. You can find the numbers for the Cardinals' players here at the official Web site and compare them with the other players on the Peoria roster or throughout the AFL. If Albert leaves, the Cardinals will turn to Allen Craig to pick up some of the lost offense. They also will look outside the organization for an upgrade to the middle infield. There are a few prospects coming for those two positions, but there isn't one whose arrival is imminent for 2012.
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This is the first Prospect Q & A of several. If you have prospect questions you can log them in the comments section below or write dgoold@post-dispatch.com with your name and hometown. I'll post these PostCards-like entries throughout the week.
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