Quick Hits: Derrick Goold on the Cardinals
Rounding up the hot topics from our award-winning baseball writer's weekly chat with St. Louis baseball fans.
QUESTION: Is Mike Matheny capable of running a spring training so the team comes out on day 1 of the season ready to play? The last two years they have not been able to play fundamental baseball and this year needed a mid-season players only meeting in order to play for each other.
GOOLD: It's an important question, and one that took on a new dimension coming out of spring training this past season. If you polled the clubhouse, the press box, the front office, and the coaches' office in the final weeks of March 2017, you would have probably heard universally agreement that the Cardinals had a strong spring training and were leaving it playing a better brand of baseball than they had at any point in 2016. No doubt. They had crisp games. The Fowler-led lineup was working as imagined. The pitching was coming together. Piscotty and his swing seemed to be the biggest question mark.. Even Jhonny Peralta seemed to have found some strength, some bounce there coming out of March. They were the team they intended to be and they were playing with an upbeat, sharp defense that they needed.
And then April happened.
One of the great questions left unanswered by the 2017 Cardinals was what happened from the time they left Jupiter, Fla., to the time they arrived at Busch Stadium for opening day. The hole they dug came fast and it went deep, and the faulty play that they showed in that first month was a stark contrast to the kind of play they had in Florida. And don't buy into the theory people want to peddle about the younger players being a big part of that. The steals? Yes, those were the young players. But the vibe of the offense and the play of the defense -- those were the Fowlers, Wongs, Carpenters, and Diaz's of the world, not the youngsters. The slow starts of Fowler, Carpenter, and others seems to have invited a doubt that the Cardinals just didn't have in Florida. Things unwound from there.
QUESTION: Mo announced that catcher is the only position on the team that's certain next season. There are a lot of players on the team whose presence on the team that doesn't call into question (Fowler isn't going anywhere but I guess we can interpret that as he might be moving to LF; Carp, Gyrko, Pham, ect. can all move around the field as well). However, Wong's only position is 2B. I figured his strong season finally opened up the chance for him to "get the job" for good. What are the chances he's still the start 2B next season?
GOOLD: Mozeliak's answer about catcher came in response to my question. The question was, essentially, this: "Beyond catcher and second base, is every position open in some way." Mozeliak corrected me to say that only catcher was. From my vantage point, Kolten Wong had a career year and did everything to win the second base job going forward, and that he could be about to make good on that All-Star prediction. Why Mozeliak was hesitant to agree or cement Wong at second? Could be a number of reasons. First, he just doesn't want to lock in a player like Wong without doing so for Fowler, for Carpenter, for DeJong. It's a lot easier to do it with Molina given his position and his career and his contract. Less so for others. That's the most likely reason. The other is that if the Cardinals get a glove for shortstop, find a bat for third baseman, and the shift Carpenter over to second, Wong could be a piece on the move, and such a commitment to him now would seem like a promise broken when they trade him. That is common stance taken by the Cardinals and other front offices in baseball.
QUESTION: Let's talk about the Cardinals rotation and depth concerns. Martinez, Wacha, Wainwright, Weaver.... it seems to me that beyond (and even within) that list, there is an innings deficit. How would you address this?
GOOLD: There is an innings deficit. There will be two ways to address this, and they are related. One, add the starter that so many folks in the chat today are discussing. Two, start get around the idea that 200 innings is no longer the benchmark teams need to think about from a starter. Dial that down to 180 and count on some churn and some help from the bullpen. Starters are going fewer innings. Bullpens are handling more. Sixth and seventh starters are necessary. And a new pitching coach is going to be charged with organizing that and acting upon the designs of the baseball ops staff.
QUESTION: Why do you think the Cardinals have shown a lack of interest in re-signing Lynn? The Cardinals have an obvious need for a veteran innings eater if he departs, so why not be more aggressive in bringing him back?
GOOLD: I don't think it's a lack of interest at all. I think it's a keen awareness of what Lance Lynn wants to make, and a willingness to see if the market will give it to him or if they can make a different offer, one less than what he wants right now. Lynn is going to pursue a deal like Zimmermann's. We've outlined that a few times in print and in the chat. That means that his deal is going to be greater than $100 million, and that hasn't changed from the day in spring training that Mike Leake shouted to John Mozeliak that he would get Lynn to sign right now, right that moment for five-years, $100 million. This hasn't been a secret. And the truth is that Lynn thinks the market will get him more than that. The Cardinals' approach with him -- and so so so many others in recent years -- is to let them find out. Get a third part to be the judge. And then engage if the price is still right. But why try to do something when the Cardinals' offer wouldn't be what Lynn wants (which is the most he can get in the open market) and the Cardinals know they can't possibly close that gap without actually having the open market as a comparison. Hence, where we are.
QUESTION: Is it safe to say that the Nick Plummer selection was a failure? It seems like such a disastrous first-round pick.
GOOLD: He's still young enough to turn things around. Has been undone by health. Odd early years of his development as a result. He's got some catching up to do with that spot in the draft, for sure, but he was young enough and inexperienced enough that some of that was to be expected. The Cardinals, needless to say, do have some concerns when it comes to what they've done with their first picks here in recent years and sluggish starts to those careers.
QUESTION: Am I dreaming to hope that we could trade for Manny Machado this winter? I know we have the pieces, but I'm talking about the Orioles willingness to make him available. Any chance they do?
GOOLD: Always a chance, slim as it appears.
QUESTION: What can you tell me about the catching prospects behind Carson Kelly? If he is dealt, who serves the backup role? Someone in the minors, or do they sign a veteran? Is Ryan Hannigan available? Would Lucroy even entertain a reserve role?
GOOLD: Andrew Knizner is the name that's going to appear on the depth chart behind Kelly when it comes to prospects on the horizon. He's in Arizona right now, catching, and at 22 he's batting .267 (four-for-15) in the early stages of the AFL. He's got a walk and a four strikeouts, too. In several ways, he's similar to Carson Kelly: a transition player learning how to catch and improving in rapid strides, sometimes at the expense of his offense, which is expected to catch up with him eventually. He's even out in Arizona, like Kelly before him. He's viewed as an upside catcher who is gaining enough experience and agility at the position to someday be reliable there, a backup-like and maybe more if the bat speaks. As of today, the Cardinals do not have eyes for a veteran backup catcher to bump Kelly back to Memphis. That would trade with a trade, of course, but the names you mention don't really resonate, and no, Jonathan Lucroy would have little interest in the role you describe. Nor should he.
QUESTION: Why is there so much hatred for Matheny? His winning percentage is phenomenal and he has more postseason success than nearly every MLB manager. Is it an outgrowth of Cardinals hate from their 15 years of success? something else?
GOOLD: I reserve the right to be surprised -- because I do think there is a cul-de-sac of Cardinal Nation that revels in cheering against the team that they ostensibly swear they are loyal to -- but I highly doubt that Cardinals fans have any sort of "hate" for 15 years of success. That would be silly. I don't get the sense there's much "hatred" for the manager. Frustration, for sure. Like you're seeing from the Cubs fans with Maddon this year. Or like you see in Boston every month of the year. And a few other places. That frustration comes from what the expectations are, what the perceived ability of the roster is, and what the manager does with both of those things, and when there are repeated problems and failings -- bullpen and fundamentals -- it inevitable weaves its way back to the person in charge of keeping both of those things going.
QUESTION: Does Jake Arrieta appeal to the Cards at all? Two can play at the game of signing rival players.
GOOLD: He does if the market slips for him, the number of years necessary to sign him drops, and the two parties meet each other glancing at each other from across the marketplace perhaps in February or so. They bat their eyes. They consider their options. And they meet each other in the middle. That's possible. But it's going to take disappointment on one side that the market didn't provide the deal desired, and on the Cardinals side it will take a patience that they can have in their search for a starter.
QUESTION: Earlier you mentioned that there have been some free agents that the Cards are NOT interested in, who might those be?
GOOLD: It's hard to see a reason for them to pursue Jayson Werth, Matt Holliday, Neil Walker, Brandon Phillips, and so on. A quick look at the list of the free agents and you can nix a good group of them just because of role or cost or age or all of it.
QUESTION: With the Cards reluctance to overpay for an elite closer, are we about to see a Nicasio signing and anoint him closer? Seems like a small sample size to go that important route.
GOOLD: If Nicasio is signed, you'll have to pay close attention to the semantics or the caveats. What the Cardinals are going to offer -- and what they're going to say -- is an opportunity to be the closer, or to be part of the ninth-inning answer for the team. If they go the route of signing Nicasio and at least one other setup man, they're going to throw arms at the ninth and see who sticks there with success. That will be their plan, and that's how they'll position it. No there won't be a closer to start the season. There will be a competition, and we'll hear all about the competition and the value of the competition and how competitive spring training will be and that out of that competition, competition, competition will emerge a closer.
QUESTION: Are there any names being floated as potential trade targets the Cards may be looking at, that perhaps most of the fan base hasn't heard up to this point?
GOOLD: Again, I can't possible know what the fans base has or hasn't heard. I'm going to stick with the reporting that the PD has done and point people in that direction, and when a new name surfaces -- here or elsewhere -- I'll do my best to confirm and explain the likelihood of that move. That's what I can offer. If you have other suggestions on how I can do all of this better, I'm all ears.
QUESTION: Do you think Carp's game is well-suited for the American League?
GOOLD: No more so than the National League. The strike zone is no longer different from league to league because the padding is the same, and the umpires are the same now too. If you're talking about the DH thing, then I would contend that Carpenter's production at some positions he play can be so far above the average at those positions that he creates additional value. That said, DH has been a dearth for so many teams in the postseason this year that it makes you wonder if more and more the DH is just becoming a depot for rest and not a specific, sluggerific position. I think Carpenter has a place with the Cardinals, has a role with the Cardinals, had a season that with distance you'll appreciate more. His role with the team will look a lot different when there is someone in the middle of the lineup to carry it.
QUESTION: Do you remain 'bullish' on the future of Aledmys Diaz? Do the Cardinals?
GOOLD: I think Aledmys Diaz has the talent to be a starter and contributor for a winning team in Major League Baseball. What he did in 2016, and the ability he has as a hitter are the reasons I believe this. I am not convinced that the Cardinals see the same thing -- or are willing to give him the playing time to find out. That's true.
